Since 1984, Maryland has only shifted rightward once compared to the previous election

[MT Treasurer]

...and that was in 2004. It is honestly remarkable how consistent and immutable its Democratic trend has been.

It really makes you wonder when Republicans will hit rock bottom in the state? Could you guys see it swinging (slightly) R without Trump as the Republican nominee in 2024?

[Ragnaroni]

...and that was in 2004. It is honestly remarkable how consistent and immutable its Democratic trend has been.

It really makes you wonder when Republicans will hit rock bottom in the state? Could you guys see it swinging (slightly) R without Trump as the Republican nominee in 2024?

New England deep blue states are usually a lost cause for Republicans. It's possible it'll swing to the right after the 2020 election just by the loss of normally Republican voting people voting Biden.

[jamestroll]

...and that was in 2004. It is honestly remarkable how consistent and immutable its Democratic trend has been.

It really makes you wonder when Republicans will hit rock bottom in the state? Could you guys see it swinging (slightly) R without Trump as the Republican nominee in 2024?

Not many voters left for it to swing more D. But it is a hard DEM start and the Democrats are essentially the Maryland Party.

I was surprised when it swung more than VA in 2020.

[ctherainbow]

New England deep blue states are usually a lost cause for Republicans. It's possible it'll swing to the right after the 2020 election just by the loss of normally Republican voting people voting Biden.

Maryland is a Mid-Atlantic state, wut?

[Ragnaroni]

New England deep blue states are usually a lost cause for Republicans. It's possible it'll swing to the right after the 2020 election just by the loss of normally Republican voting people voting Biden.

Maryland is a Mid-Atlantic state, wut?

Sorry. I'll rectify that

[TodayJunior]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Dems crack 70% in MD in 2024. Same with VT and MA.

[PragmaticPopulist]

There are still a few highly-educated places Republican places that have been trending Democratic, like Carroll, Queen Anne's, Harford Counties. Though Dems might see some slippage in Prince George's and Baltimore City. It is very possible that the margins among black voters can't be maintained, or that there's places that are depopulating.

[Beet]

The county I grew up in and have lived most of my life has shifted D by hundreds of thousands of votes since I was a kid. And yet in national elections the significance is zero. The idea that we live in a democracy, substantively speaking, just does not ring true.

[ctherainbow]

Sorry. I'll rectify that

No worries!  New England ~generally~ is considered to end at the Vermont/Connecticut/Massachusetts and New York border, wayyyyyy further north from Maryland.

[Ragnaroni]

Sorry. I'll rectify that

No worries!  New England ~generally~ is considered to end at the Vermont/Connecticut/Massachusetts and New York border, wayyyyyy further north from Maryland.

I've also heard Maryland as the South as well. Very confusing

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

To answer the OP, I think a R trend (however slight) is more likely than not in 2024 regardless of the matchup or the outcome, if only for probabilistic reasons.

[Xing]

A slight R swing is certainly possible, but I’d sooner expect states like DE/NJ to swing a bit Republican, since I’m not even sure Democrats have maxed out all of the suburbs and exurbs in MD.

[kwabbit]

White voters are still not all that Democratic in Maryland. Biden didn’t win them by much. Maryland will continue trending Democratic. A lot of room to fall for the GOP in Anne Arundel, Harford, Carroll, Frederick.

[EastwoodS]

I don't think Maryland has any business being as Democratic as it is, the demographics aren't that bad, the only thing that is turning voters off "hard-core" there is the national GOP brand of cultural right-wing conspiracy theories they want to shove down everyone's throats i.e. Maryland's 2022 Gubernatorial election. No reason the GOP should have gotten less than 45% of the vote there with a solid candidate.