Biden vs. DeSantis ends in a 269-269 tie?

[World Mapping]

Hello, y'all.

Recently, there has been a lot of talk regarding a Biden vs. DeSantis matchup in 2024. One possibility that I think isn't really talked about much is a 269-269 tie between Joe Biden and Ron DeSantis, given the latter's lack of appeal in the Rust Belt, but solid appeal in the Sun Belt.

("Safe" are states decided by >15%, "Likely" are states decided by 10-15%, "Lean" are states decided by 5-10%, and "Tilt" are states decided by <5%)



How does this scenario play out? What comes of the contingent election?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV and AZ went D in 22 so no this map won't happen again

[Vosem]

I don't think NE-2 is going Republican under 2020s boundaries and conditions unless they've pretty clearly won nationally.

269-269 actually came really close to happening in 2020, and there were a zillion plausible maps for it in the 2000s (though it wasn't on the table for 2012/2016), but I don't really see a normal-ish map for it for 2024. This maybe is the most realistic one, I suppose, but NE-2 at Biden+7 was much more Democratic than MI/PA/WI. It's about at the same level as MN or NH.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not gonna happen RS put up this map in 22 and CCM and Rosen and Hobbs won

[World Mapping]

I don't think NE-2 is going Republican under 2020s boundaries and conditions unless they've pretty clearly won nationally.

269-269 actually came really close to happening in 2020, and there were a zillion plausible maps for it in the 2000s (though it wasn't on the table for 2012/2016), but I don't really see a normal-ish map for it for 2024. This maybe is the most realistic one, I suppose, but NE-2 at Biden+7 was much more Democratic than MI/PA/WI. It's about at the same level as MN or NH.

I thought every other GOP candidacy save for Trump 2020 won NE02. Wasn't that more of a Trump issue than anything?

[Vosem]

I don't think NE-2 is going Republican under 2020s boundaries and conditions unless they've pretty clearly won nationally.

269-269 actually came really close to happening in 2020, and there were a zillion plausible maps for it in the 2000s (though it wasn't on the table for 2012/2016), but I don't really see a normal-ish map for it for 2024. This maybe is the most realistic one, I suppose, but NE-2 at Biden+7 was much more Democratic than MI/PA/WI. It's about at the same level as MN or NH.

I thought every other GOP candidacy save for Trump 2020 won NE02. Wasn't that more of a Trump issue than anything?

No, the seat is trending Democratic pretty fast and at this point it's usually voting Democratic in Nebraska statewide elections. I don't think it's gone by any means -- it is still electing Don Bacon, for instance -- but it's probably Leans D, and the GOP has already won nationally if they're winning there.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I don't think NE-2 is going Republican under 2020s boundaries and conditions unless they've pretty clearly won nationally.

269-269 actually came really close to happening in 2020, and there were a zillion plausible maps for it in the 2000s (though it wasn't on the table for 2012/2016), but I don't really see a normal-ish map for it for 2024. This maybe is the most realistic one, I suppose, but NE-2 at Biden+7 was much more Democratic than MI/PA/WI. It's about at the same level as MN or NH.

I thought every other GOP candidacy save for Trump 2020 won NE02. Wasn't that more of a Trump issue than anything?

McCain actually lost it and Romney won it back in 2012 (I don't think the lines changed noticibly in redistricting). So it could def be a Biden-DeSantis district the same way it was Obama-Romney, but if DeSantis is winning it he likely is well passed 270 so the tie scenario is no longer a possibility.

[David Hume]

I don't think NE-2 is going Republican under 2020s boundaries and conditions unless they've pretty clearly won nationally.

269-269 actually came really close to happening in 2020, and there were a zillion plausible maps for it in the 2000s (though it wasn't on the table for 2012/2016), but I don't really see a normal-ish map for it for 2024. This maybe is the most realistic one, I suppose, but NE-2 at Biden+7 was much more Democratic than MI/PA/WI. It's about at the same level as MN or NH.

NEGOP may just abolish that law, if the polls for DeSantis is not great in WI, and 269 is likely his easiest path.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think NE-2 is going Republican under 2020s boundaries and conditions unless they've pretty clearly won nationally.

269-269 actually came really close to happening in 2020, and there were a zillion plausible maps for it in the 2000s (though it wasn't on the table for 2012/2016), but I don't really see a normal-ish map for it for 2024. This maybe is the most realistic one, I suppose, but NE-2 at Biden+7 was much more Democratic than MI/PA/WI. It's about at the same level as MN or NH.

I thought every other GOP candidacy save for Trump 2020 won NE02. Wasn't that more of a Trump issue than anything?

McCain actually lost it and Romney won it back in 2012 (I don't think the lines changed noticibly in redistricting). So it could def be a Biden-DeSantis district the same way it was Obama-Romney, but if DeSantis is winning it he likely is well passed 270 so the tie scenario is no longer a possibility.

If DeSantis is winning back NE-02, that suggests a pretty big reversion in a lot of suburbs across the country and there's 0 chance Biden returns to Obama levels of rural support in MI or WI to cancel it out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I actually think this is the most realistic 269-269 tie. The main thing that some would argue makes this map "unrealistic" is WI, but there have been plenty of times in recent history where WI has voted to the left of MI and PA, and demographically I think it'd be possible using some sort of swing-o-meter to create this map.

The issue with red NE-02 as I stated above is that requires a pretty big reversion in suburbs nationally which would likely flip most swing-states to DeSantis.

[S019]

I actually think this is the most realistic 269-269 tie. The main thing that some would argue makes this map "unrealistic" is WI, but there have been plenty of times in recent history where WI has voted to the left of MI and PA, and demographically I think it'd be possible using some sort of swing-o-meter to create this map.

The issue with red NE-02 as I stated above is that requires a pretty big reversion in suburbs nationally which would likely flip most swing-states to DeSantis.

It's either that one or this one:



Anyways, I suspect the House would elect DeSantis, Republicans come in controlling 25 delegations, and they're pretty likely to gain North Carolina from redistricting and the only state where their hold on the delegation majority is not secure is Arizona, meanwhile Dem majorities in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Maine (though Maine would just be at risk at tying) are all at risk, assuming Rs trade AZ for NC, they're still at 25, and Dems are at most at 23, and could fall as low as 19, while Rs could go as high as 29. The Ds best hope would probably be Rs only have 25 delegations or they're somehow even lower, but even then things would not look that optimistic.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I actually think this is the most realistic 269-269 tie. The main thing that some would argue makes this map "unrealistic" is WI, but there have been plenty of times in recent history where WI has voted to the left of MI and PA, and demographically I think it'd be possible using some sort of swing-o-meter to create this map.

The issue with red NE-02 as I stated above is that requires a pretty big reversion in suburbs nationally which would likely flip most swing-states to DeSantis.

It's either that one or this one:



Anyways, I suspect the House would elect DeSantis, Republicans come in controlling 25 delegations, and they're pretty likely to gain North Carolina from redistricting and the only state where their hold on the delegation majority is not secure is Arizona, meanwhile Dem majorities in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Maine (though Maine would just be at risk at tying) are all at risk, assuming Rs trade AZ for NC, they're still at 25, and Dems are at most at 23, and could fall as low as 19, while Rs could go as high as 29. The Ds best hope would probably be Rs only have 25 delegations or they're somehow even lower, but even then things would not look that optimistic.

Oh yeah, that nap too. Tbh, I think a lot of folks myself included ignore NC too much just cause it voted for Trump in 2020. Voted under 2 points to the right of AZ and GA, and Ds had an ok year there in 2022, outside their collapse in rural eastern parts of the state largely due to poor black turnoyt.