Hmm.
I don't think the congressman from AZ-01 would win LaPaz, Mojave, or Yuma.
We have to work with states with only a few counties. In addition to Delaware and Arizona, I can see this kind of thing happen in primaries in Nevada, New Hampshire, and even Washington state but once there are many more counties involved, it becomes less likely.
Nevada D primary:
Candidate A is the popular but controversial (and possibly corrupt) mayor of Las Vegas. He barely wins Clark County but loses everywhere else.
Candidate B is a moderate Democrat from the north with wide rural appeal and deep roots in Washoe County. The candidate, though, has lot of trouble in Calrk County. Candidate B may need to actually be two candidates--one with a Washoe base and one with a rural base.
Candidate C is a statewide Dem who comes in a close second in both Clark and Washoe counties.
A candidate wins the primary but doesn't win a single county. Which are most likely?
Here are the two most likely scenarios in my mind:
-Delaware Democratic Primary:
Three candidates. A and B are strong in New Castle county. C is from and popular in southern Delaware. C does very poorly in New Castle, but wins both southern counties by a landslide. A narrowly wins New Castle, but is crushed in southern Delaware. B wins a very very close second in New Castle, and puts up a relatively respectable showing in southern Delaware. B wins.
Likely scenario for this matchup is A as the mayor of Wilmington, B a downballot statewide office holder and C a popular fairly conservative State Senator.
-Arizona Republican Primary:
Four candidates. A and B from Maricopa, C from rural Arizona, and D from Tucson. D wins Pima county in a massive landslide but is crushed everywhere else. C wins every other county except Maricopa but does rather weak there, coming in third. A narrowly wins Maricopa with B a close second there but has almost no support elsewhere. B puts up a close second in most rural counties and wins the primary by a fairly decent margin.
Likely scenario for this matchup is A as some Maricopa county office holder (like sheriff or county attorney), B a downballot statewide office holder, C the representative from AZ-1 and D a RINO mayor of Tucson.
What are some other likely scenarios?
