Could Glenn Youngkin win VA's Senate seat if he runs in 2024?

[World Mapping]

If Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin runs for Senate in 2024, would he be able to flip the seat red?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

He honestly could but I think he can only pull it off it is an open seat. Running against Kaine will lead him to a mid to high single digit loss probably.

[TML]

This would require the Democratic candidate to be saddled with significant amounts of baggage. Otherwise, the best possible result would be something along the lines of MA-SEN 1996.

[NewYorkExpress]

Not in 2024.

2026 in a Biden or Harris midterm, however, is certainly doable, especially since Warner is weaker electorally than Kaine to begin with.

[Epaminondas]

2026 in a Biden midterm, however

Are we still doing this?

[ModerateRadical]

Not in 2024.

2026 in a Biden or Harris midterm, however, is certainly doable, especially since Warner is weaker electorally than Kaine to begin with.

Not entirely sold on Kaine being stronger than Warner. You could point to the results in 2014 and 2018 as evidence, sure, but those aren't good yardsticks to measure candidate quality by, imho  (2014 being a 6th-year itch midterm w/ abysmal D turnout #'s, and 2018 being a blue-wave year w/ an awful R candidate). But I do agree that Youngkin would have a much better shot in a midterm year to begin with.

[President Johnson]

Doubtful. I think he may performs a few points better than Trump on the same ballot. If DeSantis is the Republican nominee, the difference would be smaller.

[jamestroll]

If Democrats nominate Dr. Fingle Dingle, Jennifer Carrol Foy, Lee Carter, or Terry McAufflie.. Youngkin would be favored yes.

[Suburbia]

No

Kaine will win his last term.

A Virginia Republican can't win a Senate seat anymore.

[Vosem]

In a national Republican victory, sure, but I don't see much evidence that Youngkin is interested. My behind-the-scenes understanding is that the GOP wants Hung Cao here.

[jamestroll]

In a national Republican victory, sure, but I don't see much evidence that Youngkin is interested. My behind-the-scenes understanding is that the GOP wants Hung Cao here.

They do. ironic enough, he would do worse in VA-10 in 2024 than a presidential year. A little green, but outsider candidates have won before.

But I believe Kaine would be difficult to dislodge and could run ahead of Biden.

I know its not a popular opinion, but Kaine was a boost in Virginia for Clinton in 2016 and Trump could have well carried it at the time if he didn't pull out and no Kaine. But resources to VA may have denied him victories in WI/MI/PA. Smart move in hindsight to pull out.

At this time, Nova was not as Democratic yet.. and Democrats were not even able to win places like Virginia Beach or Chesterfield yet, which they can now.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably not.  He could reasonably win in 2026 after a Biden reelection, though.  Doubly so if Warner retires.