When will Dems win the majority of governorships again?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The last year Dems won the majority of them was technically 2009, although they lost control of NJ and Virginia that year. Janet Napolitano of Arizona resigned as well flipping the governors mansion to the GOP. So after 2009 they had a slim majority 26-24, down from 29-21 after 2008. In 2010 it was an absolute disaster for the Dems and Rs ended with 29-20-1 majority. Republican dominance reached its absolute peak in 2016 with a whopping 34 seat majority after Jim Justice switched parties. Since then Dems have clawed back in 2018 and made it 27R-23D and flipping KY in 2019 made them very close with 24 seats. They lost Montana in 2020 and it became 27R-23D. In the 2022 midterms Dems again made progress and now Rs have just a 26-24 lead. If Sisolak and McAuliffe had won their respective races Dems actually would have a majority right now.

Going into 2023 its very tough for them to win it this year because Louisiana is a likely R flip, and Beshear is the most vulnerable incumbent this year. It looks like Reeves will probably hold on as well. Assuming Beshear wins, Rs will have a 27R-23D advantage.

2024 is also a tough cycle for them where they have to defend the open seat in NC. However, if Sununu or Scott were to retire then it shouldn't be too difficult to pick one of those up.

2026 is probably their next opening to win a majority, but can they do it?

[Roll Roons]

It could happen in 2025, especially if a Republican is president.

2023: 27R-23D (hold KY, lose LA)
2024: Even split (gain NH and VT if both incumbents retire, hold everything else)
2025: 26D-24D (gain VA, hold NJ)

[President Johnson]

It could happen in 2025, especially if a Republican is president.

2023: 27R-23D (hold KY, lose LA)
2024: Even split (gain NH and VT if both incumbents retire, hold everything else)
2025: 26D-24D (gain VA, hold NJ)

That seems the easiest road. I think that's also possible if Biden gets reelected, though holding a majority of governorships after the 2026 would be more tricky with him in the White House as opposed to a Republican. It literally just requires to win Virginia back after Sununu and Scott retire.

[Spectator]

Probably requires both Scott and Sununu retiring in 2024 to happen anytime soon. The 2026 gubernatorial map isn't great for Dems, with Kansas starting off as a likely loss. GA and NV (mostly riding on Lombardo's popularity as an incumbent there) are good offensive opportunities, but after that it would probably take Republican unpopularity in somewhere like Texas or South Carolina which aren't overwhelmingly red to get gains.

[Pres Mike]

If Democrats won VA in 2021 and NV in 2022, they would have 26 governors ugh.

[Xing]

It could happen in 2025, especially if a Republican is president.

2023: 27R-23D (hold KY, lose LA)
2024: Even split (gain NH and VT if both incumbents retire, hold everything else)
2025: 26D-24D (gain VA, hold NJ)

This is probably the easiest path, otherwise, I’d say 2030 in a Republican midterm is the next most likely possibility.

[S019]

My best guess (R wins 2024) (not the easiest path just the likeliest one) (For fun, I'll predict retirements too)

2023: R flip KY, LA (29R-21D)
2024: R flip NC, D flip NH (29R-21D) (Sununu retires)
2025: D flip VA (28R-22D)
2026: R flip KS, D flip GA, NV, VT, TX (Scott+Abbott retire) (25R-25D)
2027: no change (25R-25R)
D win 2028:
2028: D flip NC (24-26D)
R win 2028
2028: no change (25-25)
2029: no change (25-25)
2030: flip AK (24R-26D)

D wins 2024

2023: R flip KY, LA (29R-21D)
2024: D flip NH (28R-22D) (Sununu retires)
2025: D flip VA (27R-23D)
2026: R flip KS, WI, D flip VT (Scott retires) (28R-22D)
2027: no change (28R-22D)
R victory 2028:

2028: R flip NC (29R-21D)
2029: no change (29R-21D)
2030: D flip WI, NV, GA, TX (25R-25D)
2031: no change
R win 2032:
2032: no change (25R-25D)
2033: no change (25R-25D)
2034: flip AK (24R-26D)

D win 2032:
2032: flip NC (24R-26D)

D victory 2028:

2028: no change (28R-22D)
2029: no change (28R-22D)
2030: R flip PA, D flip GA (28R-22D)
2031: no change (28R-22D)

(clearly it's not going to happen while a D is president due to a whole bunch of governorships being up in the midterm)


I think the most likely outcome looks to be the next R president's sixth year itch, but it could be in the next R president's first midterm if Democrats run a strong campaign in TX/AK/FL.

[Sir Mohamed]

During the next R-midterm. Ergo, 2026 or - more likely - 2030.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... they basically need a New England sweep for this, so a lot will depend on when Scott/Sununu retire.  Might also need a further Mountain West/Plains breakthrough.

[Person Man]

My best guess (R wins 2024) (not the easiest path just the likeliest one) (For fun, I'll predict retirements too)

2023: R flip KY, LA (29R-21D)
2024: R flip NC, D flip NH (29R-21D) (Sununu retires)
2025: D flip VA (28R-22D)
2026: R flip KS, D flip GA, NV, VT, TX (Scott+Abbott retire) (25R-25D)
2027: no change (25R-25R)
D win 2028:
2028: D flip NC (24-26D)
R win 2028
2028: no change (25-25)
2029: no change (25-25)
2030: flip AK (24R-26D)

D wins 2024

2023: R flip KY, LA (29R-21D)
2024: D flip NH (28R-22D) (Sununu retires)
2025: D flip VA (27R-23D)
2026: R flip KS, WI, D flip VT (Scott retires) (28R-22D)
2027: no change (28R-22D)
R victory 2028:

2028: R flip NC (29R-21D)
2029: no change (29R-21D)
2030: D flip WI, NV, GA, TX (25R-25D)
2031: no change
R win 2032:
2032: no change (25R-25D)
2033: no change (25R-25D)
2034: flip AK (24R-26D)

D win 2032:
2032: flip NC (24R-26D)

D victory 2028:

2028: no change (28R-22D)
2029: no change (28R-22D)
2030: R flip PA, D flip GA (28R-22D)
2031: no change (28R-22D)

(clearly it's not going to happen while a D is president due to a whole bunch of governorships being up in the midterm)


I think the most likely outcome looks to be the next R president's sixth year itch, but it could be in the next R president's first midterm if Democrats run a strong campaign in TX/AK/FL.

Don't we start with 24?

[Minnesota Mike]

FWIW I believe more people have a Democratic Governor than a Republican Governor, a better metric IMO. I have not done the math but pretty sure that is correct. Also the Mayor of DC should be counted as a Governor for this comparison IMO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA, NV, and KS flipping partisan ways and I suspect Sununu retire in 26 to take on Shaheen that's 26 D Govs

[Arizona Iced Tea]

NOV 2023 Update:
Beshear and Reeves hold on, Landry flips Louisiana giving Rs a 27-23 advantage.



As of now it is almost impossible for Dems to win the majority in 2024, although they could tie if they hold NC and flip VT and NH. This gives them the oppurtunity to then flip VA in 2025, and retake the majority of governorships. However, if Phil Scott does run they are probably not going to get the chance without a blue wave in 2026.

[Pres Mike]

FWIW I believe more people have a Democratic Governor than a Republican Governor, a better metric IMO. I have not done the math but pretty sure that is correct. Also the Mayor of DC should be counted as a Governor for this comparison IMO.

Yeah. the 23 Democratic states would be equal 288 electoral votes