Chinese State Media threatens to shoot down Pelosi's plane if she goes to Taiwan

[2952-0-0]

The PRC has begun its economic retaliation, and it's...weaksauce.

China blacklists over 100 Taiwanese food exporters on eve of Pelosi's potential visit
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4614020

https://twitter.com/DavidInglesTV/status/1554619778111016961?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...

If Taiwan Independence is a force for freedom and democracy and self-determination why would the USA preemptively come out not to support it?  Surely threats from an autocratic dictatorship cannot play a role in influencing the virtuous foreign policy of the USA could not possibly lower itself to take that into consideration?

Also, the ROC Consitution says that Taiwan is a part of China.  Surely the free democratic people of Taiwan would not be intimidated by an autocratic dictatorship into not changing it if the people on Taiwan so chooses ?

[jaichind]

PRC announces military drills to start right after Pelosi departs all around Taiwan Province which de facto makes it hard to get in and out for 3 days



They did the same in the 1995 crisis but that only covered half the Province.  This time it is all around it.

These drills will be in the territorial waters of the territories that ROC currently controls.  It seems the PRC will try to turn the tables on Pelosi.   The disadvantage the PRC had was that Pelosi is doing something that embarrasses PRC but if the PRC acts it will be the one that shoots first which justifies a massive retaliation from the USA military.  So now the PRC will do something that embarrasses ROC and goad the ROC armed forces to strike first to try to stop them and justifies massive retaliation by the PLA since on paper it would be the ROC armed forces that shoot first.

Perhaps if the ROC armed forces do intervene to stop these drills we can get stories of a "Ghost of Taipei" where a ROC airforce pilot shoots down 15 PLA fighters ?

[2952-0-0]

These drills will be in the territorial waters of the territories that ROC currently controls.  It seems the PRC will try to turn the tables on Pelosi.   The disadvantage the PRC had was that Pelosi is doing something that embarrasses PRC but if the PRC acts it will be the one that shoots first which justifies a massive retaliation from the USA military.  So now the PRC will do something that embarrasses ROC and goad the ROC armed forces to strike first to try to stop them and justifies massive retaliation by the PLA since on paper it would be the ROC armed forces that shoot first.

Perhaps if the ROC armed forces do intervene to stop these drills we can get stories of a "Ghost of Taipei" where a ROC airforce pilot shoots down 15 PLA fighters ?

Announcing where and when the PLAN will hold drills is unbelievably stupid. All that Taiwan and the US have to do to disrupt the drills is to send aircraft and ships to do circles within these shaded red areas before the start of the drills, and then proclaim they're just performing routine freedom of movement exercises.

The USS Ronald Reagan is already in the region. It can sail into the middle of one of the shaded red areas, and then it can send aircraft to fly back and forth around other shaded red areas. US aircraft from Okinawa, as well as Taiwanese aircraft from the island itself, would then fly back and forth around the other shaded areas.

The PLAN removed its own element of surprise, and now the US and Taiwan have ample time to disrupt the exercise before it begins.

[The War of Trumpkin's Ear]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning

"China's final warning" (Russian: Последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb that originated in the former Soviet Union, to refer to a warning that carries no real consequences.[1]

…

More than 900 Chinese "final warnings" had been issued [between 1958 and 1964].[2]

[emailking]

Pelosi says US will 'not abandon' Taiwan as China plans military drills

During a historic trip to Taiwan Wednesday, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said her visit was intended to make it "unequivocally clear" that the United States would "not abandon" the democratically governed island.

Pelosi's trip -- the first by a sitting US speaker in 25 years -- had been foreshadowed for days. As the California Democrat departed the island on Wednesday afternoon for South Korea, there were already signs of the strains her visit to Taipei had placed on Washington's relationship with Beijing -- which warned that her trip would have a "severe impact on the political foundation of China-US relations."

China's ruling Chinese Communist Party views Taiwan as part of its territory, despite having never controlled it and has long vowed to "reunify" the island with the Chinese mainland, by force if necessary.

Pelosi's praise of the island's commitment to democracy was a significant show of support for Taipei, coming just hours after China threatened to retaliate to her presence with a series of military exercises the Taiwanese Defense Ministry likened to a "maritime and aerial blockade".

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/politics/nancy-pelosi-taiwan-parliament-visit/index.html

Pelosi has left Taiwan.

[Mr. Illini]

https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1554496902812602370?s=20&t=2_BVGPMS...

Thank you, queen. As Russia continues to fail in its attempted takeover of Ukraine, this is a strong statement that CCP will suffer the same fate if it dares touch Taiwan.

Republican politicians are pathetic in their responses to this. They claim to be tough on China but that all goes away if it isn't their party doing it. They are anti-American.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Thank you, queen. As Russia continues to fail in its attempted takeover of Ukraine, this is a strong statement that CCP will suffer the same fate if it dares touch Taiwan.

It's a loud statement, not a strong one. If you're going to piss off China, you should do it by announcing security guarantees, increasing trade, selling arms, etc.

Flying yourself over to own the libs Beijing incurs the same risks/damage to relations with China without any serious gain (except for Pelosi's domestic gain, which is why she booked the trip to begin with). One can argue it had to be followed through after Pelosi announced the trip, but it should never have been announced in the first place.

[Mr. Illini]

Thank you, queen. As Russia continues to fail in its attempted takeover of Ukraine, this is a strong statement that CCP will suffer the same fate if it dares touch Taiwan.

It's a loud statement, not a strong one. If you're going to piss off China, you should do it by announcing security guarantees, increasing trade, selling arms, etc.

Flying yourself over to own the libs Beijing incurs the same risks/damage to relations with China without any serious gain (except for Pelosi's domestic gain, which is why she booked the trip to begin with). One can argue it had to be followed through after Pelosi announced the trip, but it should never have been announced in the first place.

We already are doing all of that. President Biden announced a major arms sale to Taiwan just a few months ago.

These struggles are not just fought behind the scenes with the acquisition of arms or trade deals. They are also fought in the media and the court of public opinion.

The West has a momentum that it hasn't had in quite some time with the success of Ukraine. It makes sense for the United States to take advantage of the moment and push the boundary a bit in Taiwan as well.

[John Dule]

I will give Pelosi credit where credit is due. I didn't expect this to actually happen, and it's one of the best things a politician has done in recent memory.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1555590888289701891

*yawn* As if China was genuinely concerned about the climate anyways.

[dead0man]

are they going to take their ball and go home too?

[jaichind]

The PRC military exercise involved shooting 4 missiles over Taiwan Province.  It seems the ROC government wanted to cover this up so as not to create alarm but the Japanese government made this public and the ROC had to acknowledge that this was true.

[jaichind]

Thinking superdeep I suspect PRC wanted this entire crisis to take place to give them to excuse to establish the precedent for these military exercises and do more of them in the future.  And by the same logic thinking the next level the Biden administration most likely expected this and also does not mind since that would give the Biden administration to point out that ROC is now in greater geopolitical peril as to give it the legitimate excuse to push CHIPS-plus law to shift semiconductor production away from ROC to the USA.

[Punxsutawney Phil]

Thinking superdeep I suspect PRC wanted this entire crisis to take place to give them to excuse to establish the precedent for these military exercises and do more of them in the future.  And by the same logic thinking the next level the Biden administration most likely expected this and also does not mind since that would give the Biden administration to point out that ROC is now in greater geopolitical peril as to give it the legitimate excuse to push CHIPS-plus law to shift semiconductor production away from ROC to the USA.

This whole thing just screams "managed crisis that allows us to achieve objectives". Behavior from both parties is somewhat over-the-top, but there is a method to what is happening here.

[Orange is back]

https://twitter.com/kuomintang/status/1554491128850038790?cxt=HHwWjIDS2cLc1JIrAA...

[jaichind]

Note that other than Japan the reaction of other East Asian states toward the PRC military exercises is fairly muted.   I guess their view is "The PRC seems to be the aggrieved party and is getting hysterical, let's just let them do what they want.  They want to seal off Taiwan Province for 3 days with military exercises? Fine.  They want to shoot missiles over Taiwan Province?  Let them knock themselves out.  Just do not start WWIII."

This is not covered in USA media but ROK Prez Yoon pretty much snubbed Pelosi by refusing to meet with her or even sending someone to greet her at the airport.  I guess Yoon's view is "hey, PRC, you seem pretty angry, please direct your anger toward USA and ROC.  This whole Pelosi thing has nothing to do with us."

On ROC itself the media coverage, even those which are not pan-Blue, is getting more negative on Pelosi.  The coverage is becoming more like "so Pelosi is getting "her place in history" and distractions from her stock trading scandal and her husband's DUI scandal but we are left holding the bag and facing the PLA by ourselves."

[Beet]

Note that other than Japan the reaction of other East Asian states toward the PRC military exercises is fairly muted.   I guess their view is "The PRC seems to be the aggrieved party and is getting hysterical, let's just let them do what they want.  They want to seal off Taiwan Province for 3 days with military exercises? Fine.  They want to shoot missiles over Taiwan Province?  Let them knock themselves out.  Just do not start WWIII."

This is not covered in USA media but ROK Prez Yoon pretty much snubbed Pelosi by refusing to meet with her or even sending someone to greet her at the airport.  I guess Yoon's view is "hey, PRC, you seem pretty angry, please direct your anger toward USA and ROC.  This whole Pelosi thing has nothing to do with us."

On ROC itself the media coverage, even those which are not pan-Blue, is getting more negative on Pelosi.  The coverage is becoming more like "so Pelosi is getting "her place in history" and distractions from her stock trading scandal and her husband's DUI scandal but we are left holding the bag and facing the PLA by ourselves."

The reality is, most people in Taipei are not looking for their city to become Mariupol or Hiroshima. And frankly, that makes a lot of sense. It's easy for warmongers from far away to chest beat against Xi Jinping, but for these people its their actual reality. They know Pelosi is there to support them so they welcome her, but they're not looking to provoke a shooting war.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Thinking superdeep I suspect PRC wanted this entire crisis to take place to give them to excuse to establish the precedent for these military exercises and do more of them in the future.  And by the same logic thinking the next level the Biden administration most likely expected this and also does not mind since that would give the Biden administration to point out that ROC is now in greater geopolitical peril as to give it the legitimate excuse to push CHIPS-plus law to shift semiconductor production away from ROC to the USA.

This whole thing just screams "managed crisis that allows us to achieve objectives". Behavior from both parties is somewhat over-the-top, but there is a method to what is happening here.

God, I hope you're right.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/china-seizes-on-pelosi-visit-to-set-new-normal-for-taiwan

"China Seizes on Pelosi Visit to Set ‘New Normal’ for Taiwan"

From the South China Sea to the Himalayas, Beijing has shown a willingness to seize on perceived missteps by its rivals to tighten its grip over disputed territory. That’s now playing out around Taiwan.
In recent days, the People’s Liberation Army has sought to establish a new status quo on Taiwan with a series of exercises in the wake of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit. The moves, including frequent trips across the US-defined median line in the Taiwan Strait and likely firing missiles over Taipei, have shrunk a vaguely defined buffer zone that has kept the peace for decades.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/china-seizes-on-pelosi-visit-to-set-new-normal-for-taiwan

"China Seizes on Pelosi Visit to Set ‘New Normal’ for Taiwan"

From the South China Sea to the Himalayas, Beijing has shown a willingness to seize on perceived missteps by its rivals to tighten its grip over disputed territory. That’s now playing out around Taiwan.
In recent days, the People’s Liberation Army has sought to establish a new status quo on Taiwan with a series of exercises in the wake of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit. The moves, including frequent trips across the US-defined median line in the Taiwan Strait and likely firing missiles over Taipei, have shrunk a vaguely defined buffer zone that has kept the peace for decades.

Firing missiles daily would be a waste. Such things don’t grow on trees.

[jaichind]

https://www.storm.mg/article/4464066?page=1

The first post-Pelosi poll out of ROC from, to be fair, a lean Blue poster

Tsai government on handling the current crisis approval/disapproval  37.3/59.3
Can ROC hold on if the Chinese Communists attack yes/no  26.6/65.7
Will the USA intervene if Chinese Communists attack ROC yes/no 32.4/56.2
If the Chinese Communists attack are you willing to fight to defend ROC yes/no 53.1/38.6
Was Pelosi's visit helpful Yes/neutral/No  27.4/22.9/45.1

Long-term preference on PRC-POC relations:  Unification/Status quo/Independence 7.7(+1.3)/65.3(+8.4)/23.1(-7.2) (change from the first half of 2022) which means the crisis has dampened support for independence.

[jaichind]

A Vice Chairperson of the KMT will lead a KMT delegation to visit the Mainland.  in theory this is to look into how to help ROC-based businesses operating on the Mainland but it is clear that it will also try to smooth things over with the PRC regime.  The DPP which usually attacks these trips is staying silent on this trip as even they must feel the heat of the PRC anger and endless military exercises and is not looking for an offramp on this crisis and if the KMT could get it done so much the better.

[jaichind]

Pro-Green poll has Pelosi visit helpful/not helpful at 43/37.4 on ROC which is mostly the inverse of a pro-Blue poll.  The conclusion is that on ROC the view of Pelosi's visit is around 50/50 on if it was useful for ROC or not.

[jaichind]

The final set of polls on ROC on Pelosi's visit.  This time by the magazine GVM which has a long track record of doing macro trends polling on ROC

Overall the view from adults leans negative toward the view where they view Pelosi's visit as mostly for show or to try to sell weapons.  The level of trust in government decreased as a result and there is a general consensus on trying to de-escalate with the Mainland and avoid war.  Businesses are somewhat less negative.


In this case the poll adults and businesses

Was Pelosi's visit helpful/not helpful?
Adults: helpful/not helpful 42.8/55.5
Businesses: helpful/not helpful 59.3/38.2


Did Pelosi's visit increase the chances of war
Adults: yes/no  76.7/22.0
Businesses: 64.8/34.0



Level of trust in government increases/decreases as a result of the crisis
Adults: increase/decrease 10.8/65.4
Businesses: 14.2/40.1




Adults only:

Prioritize improving relations with Mainland/prioritize buying weapons: 63.2/20.5



In case of war would you want you or your family member to fight yes/no 25.8/53.2

[jaichind]

With Biden clearly trying to leverage his record on the Russia-Ukraine War for his re-election in 2024 I expect the GOP to try to outflank the Dems on the PRC issue in 2023.  I wonder if GOP Speaker McCarthy will repeat Pelosi's visit to ROC in 2023. 

If so I am not sure if the DPP regime will be so hot on that.  Some DPP post-mortem of the 2022 ROC local elections did report that Pelosi's visit followed by the PRC reaction mostly hurt the DPP in the elections in Nov 2022.  On the flip side if the DPP finds itself behind the KMT in Fall 2023 for the Jan 2024 Prez elections I can see DPP taking the bet and asking GOP Speaker McCarthy to visit.