Political Future of Jen Kiggans

[MargieCat]

She was very prominently placed behind McCarthy during the speaker vote.

She's obviously a big ally of his, along with Ciscomani, Kean, and Lawler.

Does she have staying power? Or is she a wave baby?

[jamestroll]

Her district is marginal, albeit Republican tilting. Should be very concerning for the VA GOP that they could not win Virginia Beach this year.

She will probably wins neutral years, but would be extremely vulnerable in a Democratic wave.

Could see her as a GOP senate nominee in the future.

[Spectator]

VA-02 is the exact kind of district that will toss out its incumbent in unfavorable midterm years. She’s probably gone in the next Republican POTUS midterm if not sooner.

[wbrocks67]

VA-02 is the exact kind of district that will toss out its incumbent in unfavorable midterm years. She’s probably gone in the next Republican POTUS midterm if not sooner.

Yeah, given how blue VA has become at the presidential level, I wonder if she'll even make it past 2024.

[jamestroll]

believe it or not.. Hampton Roads is a Democratic leaning region and not by a particularly small margin either.

You can make a solid argument that the GOP's real problem in VA is and will be Richmond and Hampton Roads. They will not be able to get the margins they need there.

2022 and 2021 results suggest dems can perhaps barely hit 60% in Loudoun and Prince William again. But not much more than that. Too many ultra rich people in those jurisdictions for them to ever vote like an urban city.

Chesterfield is trending Democratic fast... Virginia Beach is at best tilt R with DeSantis for the GOP and forget about it with Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

Kiggans won by a very underwhelming margin this year, and her losing Virginia Beach (even if it was basically 50/50) was definitely not expected even in a better-than-anticipated year for Democrats. I think the next Democratic Representative should be able to hold this seat even in a midterm under a Democratic President — while there has been disproportionate attention paid to the trends in NoVA, the GOP collapse in the Hampton Roads region has been just as damaging to the state party (and was also what did Ed Gillespie in in 2014), solidifying the solid blue (as opposed to lean D) status of the state at the federal level. 

I don’t see Kiggans running for Senate. One of GOV/LTGOV/AG is probably the most likely option for her, but even then, the question must be asked: when? She’s probably smart enough to realize that she has no chance under a Republican President in 2025, so the next opportunity may not be before 2029, at which point she certainly won’t even be in Congress anymore.

[jamestroll]

Kiggans won by a very underwhelming margin this year, and her losing Virginia Beach (even if it was basically 50/50) was definitely not expected even in a better-than-anticipated year for Democrats. I think the next Democratic Representative should be able to hold this seat even in a midterm under a Democratic President — while there has been disproportionate attention paid to the trends in NoVA, the GOP collapse in the Hampton Roads region has been just as damaging to the state party (and was also what did Ed Gillespie in in 2014), solidifying the solid blue (as opposed to lean D) status of the state at the federal level. 

I don’t see Kiggans running for Senate. One of GOV/LTGOV/AG is probably the most likely option for her, but even then, the question must be asked: when? She’s probably smart enough to realize that she has no chance under a Republican President in 2025, so the next opportunity may not be before 2029, at which point she certainly won’t even be in Congress anymore.

Chesterfield County was carried by Democrats congressionally.. even if narrowly.

70,534 votes for Democrats... 68,825 for Republicans. Close, but telling and symbolic in 2022. Let's not pretend this year did not have a GOP lean.

Virginia Beach trended Dem in relation to 2016 results lol.

There is not much more for Democrats to squeeze out of NoVa.

[MT Treasurer]

Kiggans won by a very underwhelming margin this year, and her losing Virginia Beach (even if it was basically 50/50) was definitely not expected even in a better-than-anticipated year for Democrats. I think the next Democratic Representative should be able to hold this seat even in a midterm under a Democratic President — while there has been disproportionate attention paid to the trends in NoVA, the GOP collapse in the Hampton Roads region has been just as damaging to the state party (and was also what did Ed Gillespie in in 2014), solidifying the solid blue (as opposed to lean D) status of the state at the federal level.  

I don’t see Kiggans running for Senate. One of GOV/LTGOV/AG is probably the most likely option for her, but even then, the question must be asked: when? She’s probably smart enough to realize that she has no chance under a Republican President in 2025, so the next opportunity may not be before 2029, at which point she certainly won’t even be in Congress anymore.

Chesterfield County was carried by Democrats congressionally.. even if narrowly.

70,534 votes for Democrats... 68,825 for Republicans. Close, but telling and symbolic in 2022. Let's not pretend this year did not have a GOP lean.

Virginia Beach trended Dem in relation to 2016 results lol.

There is not much more for Democrats to squeeze out of NoVa.

I wouldn’t consider Chesterfield a part of Hampton Roads, but yes, Trump would have won the state in 2016 (however, only by about half a point) if every county in the Hampton Roads region and the Greater Richmond area had voted like in 2004. However, NoVA trends would have been enough to carry the state for Democrats in 2020 even without a GOP collapse elsewhere.

Hypothetical VA would be viewed more like GA than (actual) VA, basically.

[jamestroll]

Kiggans won by a very underwhelming margin this year, and her losing Virginia Beach (even if it was basically 50/50) was definitely not expected even in a better-than-anticipated year for Democrats. I think the next Democratic Representative should be able to hold this seat even in a midterm under a Democratic President — while there has been disproportionate attention paid to the trends in NoVA, the GOP collapse in the Hampton Roads region has been just as damaging to the state party (and was also what did Ed Gillespie in in 2014), solidifying the solid blue (as opposed to lean D) status of the state at the federal level.  

I don’t see Kiggans running for Senate. One of GOV/LTGOV/AG is probably the most likely option for her, but even then, the question must be asked: when? She’s probably smart enough to realize that she has no chance under a Republican President in 2025, so the next opportunity may not be before 2029, at which point she certainly won’t even be in Congress anymore.

Chesterfield County was carried by Democrats congressionally.. even if narrowly.

70,534 votes for Democrats... 68,825 for Republicans. Close, but telling and symbolic in 2022. Let's not pretend this year did not have a GOP lean.

Virginia Beach trended Dem in relation to 2016 results lol.

There is not much more for Democrats to squeeze out of NoVa.

I wouldn’t consider Chesterfield a part of Hampton Roads, but yes, Trump would have won the state in 2016 (however, only by about half a point) if every county in the Hampton Roads region and the Greater Richmond area had voted like in 2004. However, NoVA trends would have been enough to carry the state for Democrats in 2020 even without a GOP collapse elsewhere.

Hypothetical VA would be viewed more like GA than (actual) VA, basically.

I do not consider it part of Hampton Roads. But Richmond and Hampton Roads together seem to be becoming more of a road block for the gop Not many encouraging trends there.

[free my dawg]

Serves a few terms and gets defeated in 2028.

[jamestroll]

Serves a few terms and gets defeated in 2028.

Democrats won the congressional vote combined in Chesterfield County and the cities of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake.. I just checked

To bad for Luria she had the more GOP party of Chesapeake that did her in. The next DEM for VA 02 will need to dominate VA beach.

and I’ve been told its only Nova that caused VA Dem trend. Its beyond laughable.

Though Chesapeake is not really a shock.. Chesterfield and Virginia Beach voting Dem in a year like 2022 are stunners. 2021 in Chesterfield County was a bad sign for the GOP imo.  

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think she goes down in the next Democratic wave at the latest.