Miami–Dade County, Florida…and what else?

[DS0816]

In addition to Florida’s Miami–Dade County, which other highly-populous state counties do you sense are on pace to flip in support for the Republican Party?

I ask, with respect to this report ( @ https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/06/miami-democrats-feud-audit-2022-midterms-00076758 ) , but also with an awareness that changes in voting patterns are not typically isolated to one area (be it a county or a state).

Thanks!

[OriAr]

The only one I can see flipping is Harris County in Texas if it's a really good night to the GOP.
I guess Orange County, CA might count but that's about it.

[Ragnaroni]

The only one I can see flipping is Harris County in Texas if it's a really good night to the GOP.
I guess Orange County, CA might count but that's about it.

Orange County ain't really what it used to be. Maybe if the Republican is SUPER popular but that's about it....

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The only one I can see flipping is Harris County in Texas if it's a really good night to the GOP.
I guess Orange County, CA might count but that's about it.

Orange County ain't really what it used to be. Maybe if the Republican is SUPER popular but that's about it....

The trends aren't actually bad for Republicans in Orange County.  It trended Republican in 2020 and then flipped in just about every race in 2022.  It's a very plausible pickup for a Republican winning nationwide in 2024.

[Ragnaroni]

The only one I can see flipping is Harris County in Texas if it's a really good night to the GOP.
I guess Orange County, CA might count but that's about it.

Orange County ain't really what it used to be. Maybe if the Republican is SUPER popular but that's about it....

The trends aren't actually bad for Republicans in Orange County.  It trended Republican in 2020 and then flipped in just about every race in 2022.  It's a very plausible pickup for a Republican winning nationwide in 2024.

Not getting my hopes up, remember 3/5 CDs here are democrat and they held.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The only one I can see flipping is Harris County in Texas if it's a really good night to the GOP.
I guess Orange County, CA might count but that's about it.

Orange County ain't really what it used to be. Maybe if the Republican is SUPER popular but that's about it....

The trends aren't actually bad for Republicans in Orange County.  It trended Republican in 2020 and then flipped in just about every race in 2022.  It's a very plausible pickup for a Republican winning nationwide in 2024.

Not getting my hopes up, remember 3/5 CDs here are democrat and they held.

A neutral map would have likely gone 3-2 GOP in Orange County in 2022.  The conservative coast was paired with deep-blue parts of Irvine and still almost flipped to the Republicans.  California may technically have a commission, but it tended to make decisions that favored the Democrats when in doubt.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

The only one I can see flipping is Harris County in Texas if it's a really good night to the GOP.
I guess Orange County, CA might count but that's about it.

Orange County ain't really what it used to be. Maybe if the Republican is SUPER popular but that's about it....

The trends aren't actually bad for Republicans in Orange County.  It trended Republican in 2020 and then flipped in just about every race in 2022.  It's a very plausible pickup for a Republican winning nationwide in 2024.

Slightly more realistic than Harris County, TX I guess. But I can't imagine under-40s not turning out enough for the R nominee to win outright there.

I wouldn't bet on the R nominee carrying Miami-Dade in 2024. But I'm more confident of that than I am with any other county mentioned in this thread.

[jamestroll]

The only one I can see flipping is Harris County in Texas if it's a really good night to the GOP.
I guess Orange County, CA might count but that's about it.

Orange County ain't really what it used to be. Maybe if the Republican is SUPER popular but that's about it....

The trends aren't actually bad for Republicans in Orange County.  It trended Republican in 2020 and then flipped in just about every race in 2022.  It's a very plausible pickup for a Republican winning nationwide in 2024.

Slightly more realistic than Harris County, TX I guess. But I can't imagine under-40s not turning out enough for the R nominee to win outright there.

I wouldn't bet on the R nominee carrying Miami-Dade in 2024. But I'm more confident of that than I am with any other county mentioned in this thread.

Miami Dade is most likely to vote R in 2024 but .. as I explained before.. I am in a wait and see mode

Orange County, CA could.. but again wait and see mode. And far less likely.

But why is it so popular with the online right to say a random suburban county that voted for the GOP will vote at Bush level margins gop in 2024 if Trump is not the nominee?

I am told these people do not exist, but they are all over right wing blogs and twitter.

https://twitter.com/NikkiHaleyFan02/status/1554277609021882370

example here.

but maybe they are right. 2016 produced a lot of unexpected results based on direction of party, demographic change, and candidates.

[Alben Barkley]

The only one I can see flipping is Harris County in Texas if it's a really good night to the GOP.
I guess Orange County, CA might count but that's about it.

Orange County ain't really what it used to be. Maybe if the Republican is SUPER popular but that's about it....

The trends aren't actually bad for Republicans in Orange County.  It trended Republican in 2020 and then flipped in just about every race in 2022.  It's a very plausible pickup for a Republican winning nationwide in 2024.

Slightly more realistic than Harris County, TX I guess. But I can't imagine under-40s not turning out enough for the R nominee to win outright there.

I wouldn't bet on the R nominee carrying Miami-Dade in 2024. But I'm more confident of that than I am with any other county mentioned in this thread.

Miami Dade is most likely to vote R in 2024 but .. as I explained before.. I am in a wait and see mode

Orange County, CA could.. but again wait and see mode. And far less likely.

But why is it so popular with the online right to say a random suburban county that voted for the GOP will vote at Bush level margins gop in 2024 if Trump is not the nominee?

I am told these people do not exist, but they are all over right wing blogs and twitter.

https://twitter.com/NikkiHaleyFan02/status/1554277609021882370

example here.

but maybe they are right. 2016 produced a lot of unexpected results based on direction of party, demographic change, and candidates.

LOL no, no they are not. Not "maybe," not at all. They're f--king ignorant clueless fools.

I do wonder if that "Nikki Haley Fan" account might be a troll though. Because it's hard to believe that anybody could both be THAT delusional and THAT big a fan of Nikki Haley. I'm not sure she really has any fans at all.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The only one I can see flipping is Harris County in Texas if it's a really good night to the GOP.
I guess Orange County, CA might count but that's about it.

Harris is basically gone for the GOP as long as Dems contest Texas. Abbott lost it by 10, and unless the Dem candidate gets triaged in a red wave year its 99% a blue county now. I think Rs have a good shot at Orange county but the margin will likely be 1-2 pts instead of the +20s Bush got.

[S019]

Riverside, CA is a perennial swing county, and it's definitely possible (even if this answer is cheating). Nassau, NY is unlikely, but if crime is still a major issue, it could definitely happen. Long term, it's definitely possible Republicans can flip Clark, NV, but this won't happen for several years (if it even does).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Eh, I wouldn't use California midterms as an end-all for predicting future trends. Especially in places like Orange, Fresno and the IE which look very different electorally between presidential and midterm elections. Not saying they won't vote GOP on the presidential level again in the near-future, but I'd rather wait until 2024 before saying they're on their way to becoming anything more than a purple county

If anything, I'd be a little concerned if I were an Orange County Republican seeing Newsom's margin much closer to 2018 than 2014 despite performing worse statewide than Brown 2014.

[Del Tachi]

Nassau County seems obvious enough.  Very likely DeSantis would make it competitive vs Biden in 2024.

[Ragnaroni]

Shouldn't Maricopa AZ be back within possibility?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Shouldn't Maricopa AZ be back within possibility?

Rs can win back Maricopa county, but the problem is even on the downballot their win margins are shrinking a lot. 10 years ago or so, Dems would struggle to get in the 40's now they are pushing into the 46/47 range. And that's just downballot, if you move top of the ticket Rs can still win the county but they are likely capped at maybe a 1 or 2 point win at this point.

[Ragnaroni]

Shouldn't Maricopa AZ be back within possibility?

Rs can win back Maricopa county, but the problem is even on the downballot their win margins are shrinking a lot. 10 years ago or so, Dems would struggle to get in the 40's now they are pushing into the 46/47 range. And that's just downballot, if you move top of the ticket Rs can still win the county but they are likely capped at maybe a 1 or 2 point win at this point.

That's just a sign that the county is more competitive and that the Rs don't have the stranglehold they used to have. Meaning they actually have to spend time and money to win those voters over, right?

[Cyrusman]

The only one I can see flipping is Harris County in Texas if it's a really good night to the GOP.
I guess Orange County, CA might count but that's about it.

Orange County ain't really what it used to be. Maybe if the Republican is SUPER popular but that's about it....

I live here. It's still pretty winnable for the GOP with the right, non Trump candidate. Dahle had barely any money and didn't really campaign and wasn't from SoCal and won it. Biden is also really not popular here, especially within the last year. Newport, Huntington, Westminster, Garden Grove are all pretty red. Orange, Villa Park, and Yorba Linda are super red. South OC (south of Irvine) is light red, pinkish. Dems get solid votes out of dark blue Irvine, and Santa Ana so the GOP isn't winning it by 10-15+ points by any means, but a 2-5 point victory is very much possible. Seems like the Trump years of 2016-2020 were the rock bottom years for the GOP in OC. If in 2024 the results are awful for the GOP with a non trump candidate, then I'll eat my words and say I was wrong.

[Devils30]

Shouldn't Maricopa AZ be back within possibility?

Rs can win back Maricopa county, but the problem is even on the downballot their win margins are shrinking a lot. 10 years ago or so, Dems would struggle to get in the 40's now they are pushing into the 46/47 range. And that's just downballot, if you move top of the ticket Rs can still win the county but they are likely capped at maybe a 1 or 2 point win at this point.

Arizona and Florida diverging in political trends would not have been predictable in 2012 or even 2016. Heck, in 2012 you probably would guess FL is a blue state and AZ red. Obviously the AZ GOP is an absolute joke and the FL GOP a perfectly run machine.