2023 election predictions
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Author Topic: 2023 election predictions  (Read 13905 times)
mileslunn
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« on: January 04, 2023, 09:43:54 PM »

Here are mine and feel free to add any others people think of or give your own on some of these.

Canada:

Alberta - NDP majority and while not a landslide, I don't think it will be particularly close either.

Manitoba: NDP majority but PCs win popular vote thanks to massive margins in rural southern parts but NDP still on seat count wins by decent margin.

PEI: PC majority, likely a landslide.

United States:

Kentucky: Beshear re-elected so Dem hold

Louisiana: GOP pick up

Mississippi: GOP hold.

Argentina: Centre-right wins back presidency

Finland: National Rally comes in first, Centre party defects from current coalition which is still viable and backs a centre-right one but doesn't become a member but agrees to not defeat them and let them govern.

Germany:

Hesse: Black-Green

Bremen: Red-Green

Berlin: Red-Red-Green

Bavaria: Black-FW

Luxembourg: CSV wins popular vote but smaller share than in years.  Current coalition of Democratic party + LSAP + Greens maintains majority and stays in power.

Switzerland: Status quo, very boring one with SVP in first, SDP and FDP battle for second, CVP in distant fourth, Greens get in double digits.

Spain: PP comes in first but falls short of majority but Feijoo becomes PM on second investiture vote as Vox abstains.  PP also makes gains in autonomous community elections in May too.

Greece: New Democracy wins, but loses majority, forms grand coalition with KINAL

Estonia: Reform party wins and forms coalition with other centre-right parties.

Poland: United right loses majority but still wins and gets support for minor right wing parties.

Turkey: Erdogan loses presidency but refuses to leave and launches coup to stay in power claiming election was rigged and orders a re-vote and rigs enough to ensure he wins.

Australia:

New South Wales: Labor wins majority gaining state

New Zealand: National Party comes in first and has enough seats to form a narrow majority with ACT.
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2023, 09:07:05 AM »

KY is gonna be very close like 2019 but we get polls from PA showing fraud polls Casey down 5 but we don't get a KY Gov polls
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S019
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2023, 03:10:02 AM »
« Edited: January 11, 2023, 07:51:55 PM by S019 »

Alberta: NDP majority
Manitoba: NDP majority
PEI: PC majority
Kentucky: R gain (Cameron wins primary)
MS: R hold
LA: R gain (Landry wins primary)
Argentina: JxC victory
Finland: KOK places first, forms minority government
Spain: PP minority with C+S from VOX
Greece: ND forms government (either majority or coalition with KINAL) (Greece's electoral system confuses me Tongue)
Estonia: Reform forms government with E200 and one or both of SDE/Isamaa
Poland: PO forms a coalition with PL2050 and Lewica
Turkey: Erdogan loses (Probably wishful thinking)
NSW: Labor majority, Minns becomes Premier
New Zealand: National+ACT coalition, Luxon becomes PM
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2023, 03:11:40 AM »

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Liminal Trans Girl
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« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2023, 12:48:28 PM »

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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2023, 05:10:28 PM »

S019 thinks IA, WI, OH are solid red states so of course he has KY Lean R
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2023, 05:59:56 PM »

Hi - The 2023 Gubernatorial Predictions are now up.
Enjoy,
Dave
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S019
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2023, 12:21:15 AM »

Alberta: NDP majority
New Zealand: National+ACT coalition, Luxon becomes PM

These two already look in serious danger, still feel pretty confident about NSW though
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2023, 07:34:58 AM »

KY is going blue this yr Blks aren't voting for Cameron
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Liminal Trans Girl
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« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2023, 12:08:39 PM »

I can't wait for David Duke to make another runoff
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2023, 10:46:40 PM »
« Edited: February 16, 2023, 10:50:16 PM by Senator Laki »

Kentucky: R gain
MS: R hold
LA: R gain
Argentina: Right-wing victory
Finland general: Right-wing victory
Spain: Right-wing victory
Greece: Right-wing victory
Estonia: Liberal victory
Poland: Liberal victory
Turkey: Erdogan loses
New Zealand: Right-wing victory

Probably the most boring year election-wise since i started following global politics

2024 tho has 5 elections for me (in Belgium) and the US primaries and presidential / senate & house elections. Also UK, Peru, Mexico, Venezuela, Ukraine (both pres & par), Russia, Romania (all at once), Finland pres, European elections, India general, South Korea general, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Indonesia & South Africa lol.
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: February 17, 2023, 11:58:46 AM »



KY and MS aren't Lean R
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Stuart98
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2023, 10:36:34 PM »

Two questions:

1. Since Louisiana just elected its governor, are predictions for it closed now?
2. Is the R percent Jeff Landry's vote total or that of all Republican candidates?
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2023, 01:22:24 AM »

Two questions:

1. Since Louisiana just elected its governor, are predictions for it closed now?
2. Is the R percent Jeff Landry's vote total or that of all Republican candidates?
1. no, the Atlas site messed up and its still possible to cheat
2. Just Landry; look at the 2020 Senate race for the precedent.
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2023, 10:27:18 AM »

KY D
MS TOSSUP
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