2023 election predictions

[mileslunn]

Here are mine and feel free to add any others people think of or give your own on some of these.

Canada:

Alberta - NDP majority and while not a landslide, I don't think it will be particularly close either.

Manitoba: NDP majority but PCs win popular vote thanks to massive margins in rural southern parts but NDP still on seat count wins by decent margin.

PEI: PC majority, likely a landslide.

United States:

Kentucky: Beshear re-elected so Dem hold

Louisiana: GOP pick up

Mississippi: GOP hold.

Argentina: Centre-right wins back presidency

Finland: National Rally comes in first, Centre party defects from current coalition which is still viable and backs a centre-right one but doesn't become a member but agrees to not defeat them and let them govern.

Germany:

Hesse: Black-Green

Bremen: Red-Green

Berlin: Red-Red-Green

Bavaria: Black-FW

Luxembourg: CSV wins popular vote but smaller share than in years.  Current coalition of Democratic party + LSAP + Greens maintains majority and stays in power.

Switzerland: Status quo, very boring one with SVP in first, SDP and FDP battle for second, CVP in distant fourth, Greens get in double digits.

Spain: PP comes in first but falls short of majority but Feijoo becomes PM on second investiture vote as Vox abstains.  PP also makes gains in autonomous community elections in May too.

Greece: New Democracy wins, but loses majority, forms grand coalition with KINAL

Estonia: Reform party wins and forms coalition with other centre-right parties.

Poland: United right loses majority but still wins and gets support for minor right wing parties.

Turkey: Erdogan loses presidency but refuses to leave and launches coup to stay in power claiming election was rigged and orders a re-vote and rigs enough to ensure he wins.

Australia:

New South Wales: Labor wins majority gaining state

New Zealand: National Party comes in first and has enough seats to form a narrow majority with ACT.