Finland: Parliamentary election, 2 April 2023

[Logical]

How do these electoral alliances work? Will they run together in one list or will there be two lists with their votes counted together?

[Helsinkian]

How do these electoral alliances work? Will they run together in one list or will there be two lists with their votes counted together?

The latter.

[Helsinkian]

New Taloustutkimus/YLE poll:

NCP: 20.8% (-0.8 )
SDP: 19.9% (+0.8 )
Finns: 19% (+0.6)
Centre: 9.5% (-0.6)
Left: 9% (+1.4)
Green: 8.9% (-1.4)
SPP: 4.4% (nc)
CD: 3.6% (-0.4)
Move: 1.5% (-0.3)
Others: 3.4% (+0.7)

YLE reports that the Liberal Party is the biggest party within the 'others'.

[Helsinkian]

The Public Broadcaster YLE's election compass is available in English as well: https://vaalit.yle.fi/vaalikone/eduskuntavaalit2023/?lang=en

It first asks 14 questions to determine the party closest to you. Then it asks 30 questions to determine the candidate closest to you; some of the questions are the same.

[DavidB.]

86% Finns
64% Center
64% Finnish Nation First
64% Reform Movement
64% Freedom Alliance
64% Movement Now
57% KD
57% Crystal Party
50% KOK
50% SPP
36% Commies
29% Green
29% Left
29% Liberals
29% SDP
29% Open Party
21% Animal Justice
21% Feminist

Strange how many of these percentages are exactly the same.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Public Broadcaster YLE's election compass is available in English as well: https://vaalit.yle.fi/vaalikone/eduskuntavaalit2023/?lang=en

It first asks 14 questions to determine the party closest to you. Then it asks 30 questions to determine the candidate closest to you; some of the questions are the same.

SDP 93%
Feminist Party 86%
Green League 79%
Left Alliance 79%
Open Party (?) 79%
Animal Justice Party 71%
Communist Party 71%
Swedish People's Party 71%
Liberal Party 64%
Centre Party 57%
National Coalition Party 57%
Christian Democrats 50%
Movement Now 43%
Crystal Party 36% (Marianne Williamson?!?!)
Finnish Reform Party 29%
Finnish Nationa First 14%
Freedom Alliance Party 14%
Finns Party 7%

Seems about right!

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So funny:

SPP: 85%
Centre: 77%
SDP: 77%
ChristDems: 69%
Greens: 62%
Left: 62%
NCP: 54%
Finns: 38%

Rural Christian Swedish-speaking socialism it is!

[Estrella]

Social Democrats 79%
Animal Justice 71%
Greens 64%
Left 64%
Open Party 64%
Communist 57%
Feminist 57%
Swedish People's 57%
Christian Democrat 50%
Centre 43%
Movement Now 43%
National Coalition 43%
Finns 36%

[Helsinkian]

My results:

Finnish Nation First 86%
Freedom Alliance 86%
Finns Party 79%
Reform Movement 71%
Crystal Party 64%
Movement Now 57%
Liberal Party 50%
Open Party 50%
Centre Party 43%
National Coalition Party 43%
Swedish People's Party 43%
Christian Democrats 36%
Social Democratic Party 36%
Animal Justice Party 29%
Communist Party 29%
Feminist Party 29%
Green League 21%
Left Alliance 21%

I often get those two fringe kook parties at the top in these things. I'm still going to vote for the Finns Party, though.

[Peeperkorn]

National Coalition - 85%
Liberal Party - 77%
Finnish Reform Movement - 69%
Movement Now - 69%
Social Democratic Party - 69%
Swedish People's Party - 69%
Feminist Party - 62%
Open Party - 62%
Centre Party - 54%
Finnish Nation Firs - 54%
Freedom Alliance - 54%
Green League - 54%
Left Alliance - 54%
Animal Justice - 46%
Christian Democrats - 46%
Communist Party - 46%
Finn's Party - 31%
Crystal Party - 23%

[Harlow]

I like this thing that shows you what your ideal parliament would look like based on your responses. Not sure how they calculated this but it's interesting.

[S019]

Open Party: 79%
Liberal Party: 79%
SDP: 79%
Feminist Party: 71%
KOK: 71%
RKP: 71%
Christian Democrats: 64%
Left Alliance: 64%
Green League: 64%
Animal Rights Party: 57%
Center: 57%
Liike Nyt: 57%
Finnish Communist Party: 57%
Korjausliike: 43%
Finnish People First: 29%
Union of Freedom: 29%
Crystal Party: 21%
True Finns: 7%



Don't know how it makes sense that the highest scoring party I got that wasn't an irrelevant micro party only gets 3 seats in my ideal parliament, but I assume there must be some logic here.

[Helsinkian]

Annika Saarikko, leader of the Centre Party, has said that the continuation of the current government coalition is not an option; she argues that the economy cannot be revived 'if the majority of the parties in government think that debt and deficit do not matter'. Still, she did not rule out co-operation with any single party.

As previously stated, SDP, Greens and the Left Alliance have ruled out co-operating with the Finns Party; the latter has earlier hinted that the feeling is mutual. The Swedish People's Party has not definitively ruled out co-operation with the Finns Party, but its leader Anna-Maja Henriksson has said that it would be "very unlikely". Finally, the Left Alliance considers co-operation with the NCP unlikely.

All this points towards the likelihood of an NCP + SDP + Greens + SPP coalition. If Saarikko stands by her announcement regarding the current coalition, then such a four-party coalition seems the likeliest option both in the scenario where NCP is the largest party and in the scenario where SDP is the largest -- even with the obvious disagreements on public spending and debt. Finns Party coming in first would of course throw a spanner in the works.

The other options:

• NCP + Finns Party + Christian Democrats + SPP

In addition to the bad compatibility of Finns Party and SPP, it is starting to become increasingly clear that the national leadership of NCP would prefer SDP over the Finns Party, even though rank-and-file NCP members would prefer the latter. In addition, it might be that this coalition would only get a bare majority of a couple seats, which would not be deemed secure enough.

• NCP + Finns Party + Centre

This would be a repeat of the 2015 Sipilä Coalition, and we know how that ended (mid-term split of Finns Party and a nosedive for Centre in the next election).

• NCP + SDP + Centre (+ SPP)

This would just seem like a perfect recipe to lift the Finns Party to a 25%+ level.

I would find it very unlikely that Centre goes to government with any result where their support is below ten percent. Then again, if the NCP and SDP were to plan on, say, drastically reducing the number of the elected county councils that were founded under the current coalition by combining some of them, then preventing something like that could be enough to entice Centre to risk it in government again.

It should be noted that even if Petteri Orpo clearly prefers SDP over the Finns Party, there would be little sense in him announcing that preference. Keeping open the possibility of a coalition with the Finns Party would allow him to extract greater compromises from SDP in the coalition negotiations.

[FrancoAgo]

My results, unlucky i don't find the ideal parliament button
92%: Animal justice, Communist,
83%: Crystal, Green, Left
75%: Feminist
67%: Open
50%: Centre, Finns, Social Democratic
42%: Finnish nation first, freedom alliance
33%: liberal
25%: Christian Democrats, National coalition, Swedish people
17%: Finnish reform
0: movement now

[mileslunn]

Seems lack of polls so are there more polls out there not yet on Wikipedia's English page or do they just not do many polls?  Also if a grand coalition, would it be largest party becomes leader or is it possible one that comes in first might not?

[Helsinkian]

Seems lack of polls so are there more polls out there not yet on Wikipedia's English page or do they just not do many polls?

There are not many polls. National polling is usually done by the public broadcaster YLE (which uses the Taloustutkimus pollster) and the largest newspaper Helsingin Sanomat (which uses Kantar). Both will publish one more poll before election day. In addition, some local papers have commissioned district-level polls.

Also if a grand coalition, would it be largest party becomes leader or is it possible one that comes in first might not?

The largest party of the coalition would definitely insist on premiership. I suppose there could be some wiggle room if one party won more seats while the other one got more votes -- which is possible due to the lack of levelling seats -- though the one with more seats would probably be termed the largest.

[Helsinkian]

Euronews wrote about a controversy regarding a Finns Party candidate's advert (article has a picture of it):

Finnish voters go to the polls at the beginning of April, in a closely-fought campaign that sees Prime Minister Sanna Marin's Social Democrats in a tight three-way race against the conservative National Coalition Party, and the the far-right populist Finns Party.

This week a Finns Party candidate sparked a backlash from other politicians and voters alike, for an advert branded as "racist."

Laura Jokela, who is standing in Helsinki, uploaded the image to her social media accounts and said she would also distribute the picture on a flyer to prospective supporters.

On the left hand side it shows a picture of half her face with the words "You know why" in Finnish, above a Finns Party logo.

On the right hand side it shows Jokela's face apparently covered in a burqa, and the slogan "East Helsinki. Like going abroad?"

https://www.euronews.com/2023/03/17/outcry-as-finland-election-campaign-hit-by-racist-advertising

[Helsinkian]

Also: there was a callback to last summer's 'partygate' when Sanna Marin did a drug test to prove that she had not been on drugs in her party videos. While campaigning in the town of Pori, a woman asked Marin why the drug test had not been taken from Marin's hair (as evidence of drug use can last longer in one's hair). As a response, Marin plucked a hair from her head and told the woman to go and test it. She did not take the hair.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

With the NATO negotiations progress is it possible the SDP manages to get a narrow first place finish (no pun intended)?

[DavidB.]

Also: there was a callback to last summer's 'partygate' when Sanna Marin did a drug test to prove that she had not been on drugs in her party videos. While campaigning in the town of Pori, a woman asked Marin why the drug test had not been taken from Marin's hair (as evidence of drug use can last longer in one's hair). As a response, Marin plucked a hair from her head and told the woman to go and test it. She did not take the hair.

Are references to partygate a net win or a net loss for Marin in the current Finnish political climate?

[Aboa]

With the NATO negotiations progress is it possible the SDP manages to get a narrow first place finish (no pun intended)?

Credit of Foreign Policy successes tends to be given to President Niinistö.

If SDP were to finish first I'd guess that a more probable reason would be tactical voting from people who would normally be voting for Greens or Left Alliance.

[Helsinkian]

Also: there was a callback to last summer's 'partygate' when Sanna Marin did a drug test to prove that she had not been on drugs in her party videos. While campaigning in the town of Pori, a woman asked Marin why the drug test had not been taken from Marin's hair (as evidence of drug use can last longer in one's hair). As a response, Marin plucked a hair from her head and told the woman to go and test it. She did not take the hair.

Are references to partygate a net win or a net loss for Marin in the current Finnish political climate?

The people who are inclined to like her tend to like the partying image too. And anyways, aside from that one incident, most people have moved on.

[crals]

With the NATO negotiations progress is it possible the SDP manages to get a narrow first place finish (no pun intended)?

Credit of Foreign Policy successes tends to be given to President Niinistö.

If SDP were to finish first I'd guess that a more probable reason would be tactical voting from people who would normally be voting for Greens or Left Alliance.

Does that sort of tactical voting usually happen?

[Helsinkian]

Kantar/HS poll:

NCP: 20.8% (-0.5)
SDP: 19.3% (+0.1)
Finns: 19.3% (-0.7)
Centre: 10.7% (+1.1)
Green: 8.3% (-1.1)
Left: 8.2% (+0.2)
SPP: 4.5% (+0.1)
CD: 4% (+0.1)
Move: 2.2% (+0.2)
Others: 2.7% (+0.5)

[Helsinkian]

These are the results of the 'youth election', a sort of 'shadow election' organised in schools where the voters were mostly 13-17 year olds:

Finns Party 46 seats
National Coalition Party 31
Social Democratic Party 29
Green League 23
Centre Party 22
Left Alliance 14
Movement Now 10
Christian Democrats 7
Swedish People's Party 5
Freedom Alliance 4
Finnish Nation First 3
Feminist Party 2
Pirate Party 1
Blue-and-Black Movement 1
Power Belongs to the People 1

Adds up to 199 because it was not organised in Åland.

Backs up an earlier poll which found the Finns Party doing well with young people.