Finland: Parliamentary election, 2 April 2023

[Helsinkian]

Method

Finland will hold a parliamentary election on 2 April 2023. 200 MPs will be elected to the parliament (eduskunta in Finnish) using the proportional D’Hondt method with open lists.

There is no national electoral threshold. Because Finland, unlike Sweden, has no levelling seats to reflect the national result, Finland essentially has 13 separate elections in the 13 electoral districts. These vary greatly in size from Uusimaa with 37 seats to Lapland with 6 seats (and Åland with 1 seat, but that’s a special case). This of course has a bearing on whether a voter is willing to vote for a small party, since their chance of success is a lot better in Uusimaa compared to Lapland. Overall, the system tends to give a slight advantage of a few seats to the biggest parties. Parties can form electoral alliances where they are considered as part of the same list; the alliances are made on the district level, not nationally.

Due to the open list method, the order in which candidates within a list are elected is based entirely on the number of votes the candidates receive. One always votes for a candidate; there is no option to vote just for the list without choosing a candidate. The ballot is a small piece of paper with a circle on it; one writes the candidate’s number inside the circle. This system at times leads to surprises where prominent politicians are not elected even when their party does well. It also leads to parties nominating minor celebrities with the hope that they get enough votes to help the party but not enough to be elected.

List of electoral districts and the number of seats (change from 2019):

Uusimaa 37 (+1)
Helsinki 23 (+1)
Pirkanmaa 20 (+1)
Oulu 18
Finland Proper 17
Vaasa 16
South-East Finland 15 (-2)
Savonia-Karelia 15
Tavastia 14
Central Finland 10
Satakunta 8
Lapland 6 (-1)
Åland 1

Current coalition

The current centre-left coalition consists of the Social Democrats, Centre Party, Green League, Left Alliance and the Swedish People’s Party. The Prime Minister is Sanna Marin of SDP who came into the position in December 2019 eight months after the previous election when Antti Rinne of the same party was pressured to step down after mishandling a postal strike and misleading the parliament about it. The other coalition parties are also led by women, which was much commented on when Marin came to office (Centre Party’s initial female leader was replaced by another woman).

The final months of the coalition have been marked by inner bickering, as the Centre Party, looking to lift its profile ahead of the election, voted with the opposition on a bill concerning environmental protection, while the other governing parties decided to advance a bill reforming Finland's Sami Parliament even though Centre was strongly opposed to it.

Issues

NATO & defence policy. Finland’s NATO process is still not complete. At the time of writing, 28 NATO countries have ratified it, but Turkey and Hungary have not. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only around 20 percent of Finns wanted to join NATO. Now the most recent poll has it at 78 percent. The National Coalition Party’s large polling lead is partly due to voters rewarding it for its consistent and long-term support for NATO membership. When the parliament voted on NATO last May, the vote was 188–8 to join. Disagreements remain on whether Finland, once it is in NATO, should seek to have foreign NATO bases on its soil or not (NCP wants it, the left-wingers are less keen).

Edit 31 March: Hungary and Turkey have now both ratified it.

Health. The Marin government passed a wide-reaching reform of health and social services, moving their organisation from the municipalities to counties. Their funding still remains a problem, partly because the county councils lack taxation powers. Hospitals and especially smaller clinics suffer from a staffing shortage, in particular with regard to nurses. Last fall, when threatened with a nurse strike, the Marin government passed a law preventing the nurses from striking – a difficult decision for the left-wing parties.

Debt, deficit & welfare. Covid led to a large increase in the national debt, and necessary future defence purchases will increase it further. Finland is not as rich as the other Nordic countries. The NCP in particular is adamant that Finland needs to cut public spending before the deficit gets out of hand and is looking to cut unemployment and welfare programs as a solution. The employment rate has been ticking up in a promising way, but many expect a recession in the near future.

Energy prices. Though the prices will probably be lower by the time of the election day, owners of detached houses in particular are suffering from high energy prices.

Crime. After years of denying it, the authorities have had to admit that Finland’s large cities have a problem with criminal street gangs. The situation is not nearly as bad as it is in Sweden, but something needs to be done before it escalates.

Coalition options

The 2019 election was very close, with all parties under 18 percent and the three top parties within a percentage point of each other. This time, however, the NCP has a clear polling lead going into the election.

Finnish politics has a tradition of coalitions crossing the left–right divide (with even the NCP and the Left Alliance in the same coalition a few times). The leader of the largest party will very likely become Prime Minister. There are no permanent political blocs. Party leaders often avoid discussing coalition options before the election; however, SDP, Greens and Left Alliance have indicated that they are not interested in co-operating with the Finns Party. NCP and Centre rejected the Finns Party during the government crisis of 2017, but they no longer have a similar objection to working with them.

If the Centre Party suffers a second big election defeat in a row, as the polls suggest, many believe that they will want to go into opposition to recover and regain the trust of their base. If that is what happens, and if the polls we see now are realised in the election to some degree, then two realistic coalition options are:

• NCP + SDP + Greens + Swedish People’s Party
• NCP + Finns Party + Christian Democrats + Swedish People’s Party

The question mark with the first option is how would NCP and SDP agree on spending cuts. The question mark with the latter option is whether the Finns Party and the Swedish People’s Party are even willing to be in the same coalition; another migrant surge or a new EU bailout package for one country or another could also cause a government crisis.

Of course, there are more options if Centre is willing to go into government again even after a second defeat.

There is no recent tradition of minority governments, unlike in Sweden and Denmark, and the formation of one would be very unlikely.

Parties represented in parliament

The parliament currently has 10 parties.

Social Democratic Party (40 seats in 2019, leader: Sanna Marin)

The main centre-left party, led by PM Sanna Marin. Traditionally relying on working-class union members, the party nowadays also draws heavily on pensioners – the average age of party members is 70, the highest of all parties. Marin, 37, does present a more youthful image, but it remains to be seen whether that leads to younger people actually voting for them. SDP emphasises the ‘Nordic welfare state’ model.

Finns Party (39 seats in 2019, leader: Riikka Purra)

Right-wing populist party, traditionally campaigning on anti-immigration and anti-EU stances. They have, though, toned down the anti-EU rhetoric somewhat, as they are not currently seeking an exit from the union (though the program for the last European Parliament election still referred to quitting the EU as the party’s ‘long-term strategic objective’). The party used to be opposed to joining NATO, but now backs it. The party has a lot of working-class voters and its economic policy has traditionally resembled what is sometimes called ‘welfare state nationalism’. However, in recent years the party has leaned rightward in economics and attracts increasing support from self-employed people as well.

The party was part of Juha Sipilä’s coalition in 2015–2017, but it was kicked out of the government following a crisis resulting from the party's leadership election which was won by the more ‘radical’ candidate Jussi Halla-aho – the ‘moderate’ faction, which included over half of the MPs, left to form the Blue Reform party which remained in Sipilä’s coalition. The party’s voters made it clear which side they backed in the 2019 election: 39 MPs for Halla-aho’s Finns Party, and 0 MPs for Blue Reform. Halla-aho stepped down as leader in 2021 and was succeeded by Riikka Purra who broadly speaking shares his ideology. The reason for Halla-aho stepping down is not clear; some speculated that Purra might be more easily acceptable to possible coalition partners compared to Halla-aho who has a history of controversial blog posts, one of which led to a conviction for incitement.

National Coalition Party (38 seats in 2019, leader: Petteri Orpo)

The centre-right NCP supports free markets, lowering taxes, promoting private sector service providers in relation to the public sector and deepening EU integration. As stated previously, it has traditionally been the most consistent supporter of NATO – an issue on which their stance has been vindicated. Its support is concentrated in and around the large urban areas, and it is particularly popular among entrepreneurs, people in a managerial position, civil servants and the upper middle class. For most of the Cold War era, the party was kept outside of government because it was perceived as being too ‘pro-West’. After 1987 they became a regular fixture of coalitions, though 2011 was the only election in which they were the biggest party.

Historically, the NCP was a party of traditional values, often associated with the Finnish conservative motto ‘Home, Religion, Fatherland’ (political cartoonists used to depict the NCP as a Lutheran pastor wearing a military helmet). This has changed in the 2000s, as the party has become more socially liberal, supporting, for example, same-sex marriage and multiculturalism. Though the party still has a social conservative wing, the liberals are ascendent. They are led by Petteri Orpo, former Finance Minister.

Centre Party (31 seats in 2019, leader: Annika Saarikko)

Known as the Agrarian League until the 1960s, the Centre Party is first and foremost the champion of rural regions and small towns and is the traditional party of Northern Finland in particular. Though a member of the Renew Europe group in the EP and the Liberal International, the Centre Party is by no means a typical liberal party due to its rural and agrarian nature, as their rural supporters tend to fall on the conservative side on social issues. When the Finnish Parliament passed same-sex marriage in 2014, Centre MPs were mostly against it, and now some of them are struggling with the trans self-ID bill that is making its way through parliament. In Northern Finland, a large part of the party's traditional base are Laestadians (a very conservative revival movement within the Lutheran church).

Centre suffered a large defeat in 2019, losing 18 MPs, and is set to suffer another defeat. The 2019 defeat was interpreted as their voters punishing them for veering too far to the right in economic policies. This time some of their traditional voters criticise them for propping up left-wing policies. This, of course, puts the party in a difficult position. Centre did manage to pass their long-term objective, elected county councils, during the current government.

Green League (20 seats in 2019, leader: Maria Ohisalo)

Unlike many other Green parties of Europe, the leadership of the Finnish Greens usually avoids openly calling the party left-wing. But, although they have co-operated with the bourgeois parties, their policies are often not that different from those of the Left Alliance. Traditionally vehemently opposed to nuclear power (they walked out of the government twice because of it), the party has recently started to reconsider this position.

Popular among young voters, the Greens' support is especially high among students, academic professionals and media people. They have the youngest membership of all parties. The Greens’ support is concentrated in the big cities of Southern Finland, and in Helsinki they were the largest party in 2019 (though they again slid back to second place in the 2021 municipal election). Among educated socially liberal middle-class voters in Helsinki, there are many who fluctuate between the Greens and the NCP (this in part explains why party leadership wants to avoid calling the party left-wing). Outside of Southern Finland, they have had some success, for example, in the university town of Jyväskylä in Central Finland. In 2019, they managed to get more than ten percent of the votes for the first time in a parliamentary election (they had managed it previously in European Parliament elections). Greens are much more popular among women than men (being the polar opposite of the Finns Party in that sense), and this is reflected in the makeup of their current parliamentary group: 17 women, and 3 men.

Left Alliance (16 seats in 2019, leader: Li Andersson)

The most left-wing of the parliamentary parties, Left Alliance was founded in 1990 as a successor to the old Communist Party and its front organisation, the Finnish People’s Democratic League. Nowadays, the old communists have mostly stepped aside to make room for a younger generation in the party’s leadership. The current leadership has positioned the Left Alliance as a ‘red-green’ or an eco-socialist party. However, the leader Li Andersson still calls herself a Marxist, and the party’s youth organisation's leader calls herself a communist. In 2019, the party managed to stop its decline and increased its share of MPs. The party used to be strongly anti-NATO, but after the Russian invasion of Ukraine the majority of the party switched to backing NATO membership, though six MPs voted against it.

Swedish People’s Party (9 seats (10 with Åland) in 2019, leader: Anna-Maja Henriksson)

A party of the Swedish-speaking minority of Finland (who are circa 5% of the population). The SPP has been a staple of Finnish coalitions; they were part of the cabinet continuously from 1979 until they were left out of the Sipilä coalition in 2015, before making a return in 2019. The other parties have found the SPP an easy partner to work with, as it has been willing to support all sorts of policies in return for the other governing parties’ commitment not to weaken the position of the Swedish language (which is an official language alongside Finnish). The current Finnish political debate on the position of the Swedish language is concentrated on the question of mandatory Swedish teaching in schools, with most Finnish-speakers wanting to make Swedish a voluntary school subject instead of a mandatory one. However, of the major political parties, the Finns Party is the only one that support that proposal.

Aside from the language question, the SPP identifies as a market liberal and socially liberal party. The SPP sits in the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament together with the Centre Party. Compared to other Finnish political parties, it is, however, ideologically closer to the National Coalition Party. The single MP from Åland sits in the same parliamentary group with the SPP, but the party does not operate in Åland, as the archipelago has its own party system.

Christian Democrats (5 seats in 2019, leader: Sari Essayah)

A party for the religious and socially conservative people, the Christian Democrats broke away from the National Coalition Party in the 1950s. Anti-abortion, anti-same-sex marriage etc. The Christian Democrats used to sit in the EPP group in the European Parliament back when they had an MEP, but they don’t currently have any.

Movement Now (1 seat in 2019, leader: Harry Harkimo)

Harry Harkimo, a wealthy businessman (he has hosted the Finnish version of The Apprentice TV show), was elected to parliament representing NCP in 2015 but left the party in 2018 to found this new party (NCP sources claim it was because he wasn’t chosen as a minister). Movement Now claims to be big-tent (a former party secretary of SDP was among the other founders); others generally consider them to be centre-right and market liberal, challenging the NCP from the right in that regard. They have made limited forays into ‘e-democracy’, with people voting online on how their single MP should vote in parliament on certain issues.

Power Belongs to the People (did not exist in 2019, 1 seat now, leader: Ano Turtiainen)

A far-right party founded in 2021 by former weightlifter Ano Turtiainen who was elected to parliament in 2019 for the Finns Party which ended up expelling him after various controversies. PBP first focused on anti-vaxxer issues and managed to get ten county councillors in the county election of 2022. With the issue of Covid vaccinations waning, the party has embraced being pro-Russia and anti-NATO. They even invited a representative of the Russian embassy to speak at their party conference, and that was after the invasion. The party attracts various conspiracy theorists, and as is typical of that sort of people, it has already suffered splits.

Other registered parties, not in parliament

These are the other currently registered parties; they have little chance of success:

Finnish Reform Movement – This is what Blue Reform (the former moderate faction of the Finns Party) is now calling itself. It has tried to rebrand itself toward some sort of classical liberalism/libertarianism. All former MPs have moved on.

Liberal Party – Freedom to Choose – Classical liberal/libertarian. Originally called ‘Whisky Party’, as it started as a movement against alcohol regulations and bureaucracy, they had to add ‘Freedom to Choose’ to their new name because the earlier and now-defunct Liberal Party still exists as an association, though not as a party.

Pirate Party – Like the name suggests, part of the European pirate movement.

Open Party – Split from the Pirate Party and has some similar themes along with e-democracy.

Feminist Party – Modelled after Sweden’s Feminist Initiative.

Animal Justice Party – Modelled after the Dutch party.

Citizens’ Alliance – Used to be known as Independence Party, anti-EU, but not anti-immigration.

Seven Star Movement – Used to be a vehicle for Centre Party veteran politician Paavo Väyrynen who briefly left Centre. Once he returned to Centre, the party became rudderless. Anti-EU. Edit: no candidates.

Crystal Party – New Age movement, ‘alternative medicine’.

Finnish Nation First – Far-right party that grew from anti-immigration street protests.

Freedom Alliance – Far-right. Split from Power Belongs to the People, seemingly over personal issues with leadership rather than ideology; stresses anti-vaxxerism.

Blue-and-Black Movement – Far-right. Founded by former members of the Finns Party’s former youth organisation after the party cut ties with it – obvious echoes with the Alternative for Sweden party in that sense. The name is inspired by the youth organisation of the 1930s Patriotic People’s Movement.

Communist Party of Finland – Founded in the 1990s by the Marxist-Leninists of the old Communist Party’s old-school wing who viewed the Left Alliance as too moderate.

[Helsinkian]

The most recent polls, published in December, show Centre Party below ten percent, which would be catastrophic for a traditional party of government:

Kantar/HS:
NCP: 23.5
SDP: 19.1
Finns: 17.9
Centre: 9.9
Green: 9.8
Left: 8
SPP: 4.3
CD 3.4
Move: 1.8
Others: 2.3

Taloustutkimus/YLE:
NCP: 24
SDP: 18.9
Finns: 17.4
Green: 9.7
Centre: 9
Left: 8.9
SPP: 4.6
CD: 4
Move: 1.6
Others: 1.9

[Helsinkian]

A notable development today saw Wille Rydman, who was elected as MP for NCP, join the Finns Party. Rydman had been suspended from the NCP parliamentary group since last summer due to an article in the country's largest newspaper Helsingin Sanomat which accused him of harassing several women. Rydman denied the accusations and has sued the paper for defamation. Police investigation did not lead to charges against Rydman, but NCP was still unwilling to lift his suspension or allow him to stand in the election. He therefore switched to Finns Party and will run as their candidate. Rydman has always been one of the most socially conservative NCP politicians, so choosing the Finns Party was no surprise.

[DavidB.]

Many thanks for all this. Have NCP commented on their willingness to govern with the Finns this time?

[Helsinkian]

Many thanks for all this. Have NCP commented on their willingness to govern with the Finns this time?

Yes, Orpo has stated since 2021 that co-operation is "possible, but not easy". A recent poll of district-level NCP bosses found that the Finns Party was actually their most preferred partner (they might have factored in the probability of Centre going into opposition).

[Helsinkian]

New poll sees the Finns Party pass SDP and Centre recover above ten percent:

Taloustutkimus/YLE:
NCP: 23 (-1)
Finns: 19.3 (+1.9)
SDP: 18.8 (-0.1)
Centre: 10.9 (+1.9)
Green: 9.6 (-0.1)
Left: 8.6 (-0.3)
SPP: 4 (-0.6)
CD: 2.9 (-1.1)
Move: 1.3 (-0.3)
Others: 1.6 (-0.3)

[Logical]

Will the Finns Party demand Prime Ministership if they overperform and become largest party?

[Helsinkian]

Will the Finns Party demand Prime Ministership if they overperform and become largest party?

Yes, I am sure they would. If the Finns Party were to come first and the NCP second, I can't see the Finns Party agreeing to a coalition with the NCP without getting the top job. If Halla-aho were still the leader, I could see the NCP rejecting him as PM, but Purra does not have the same sort of notoriety.

The leader of the largest party has become PM after all elections since 1991 (elections prior to that were conducted under the old constitution which gave the President free hands in appointing the cabinet, which is no longer the case). After the election, the parliament decides who should be given the task of forming the government. I don't think the other parties would want to overturn the settled practice of giving that task to the leader of the largest party. Even if the NCP and SDP preferred to form a coalition together, I think they would allow Purra to spend a couple of weeks trying and failing to form a coalition knowing that she would not succeed. Once it has become clear that the effort has failed, the parliament would then task the leader of the second-largest party to form a government.

[Estrella]

Other than the SPP, what parties do Swedes usually vote for? How about the Sámi?

[Ethelberth]

Other than the SPP, what parties do Swedes usually vote for? How about the Sámi?

Convetionally 75% SPP and 25% SDP. There is strong area of KD around Kokkola and Jakobstad. Furthermore there are some prominent Finland Swedes in Greens and Left Union, who have strong personal vote, but can change if the prominent candidate retires.

[Helsinkian]

Centre Party has allowed the veteran politician Paavo Väyrynen to stand for election in Lapland. Väyrynen, 76, is a former leader of the party and has been a candidate for President four times (thrice for Centre and once as an independent). His candidature now is, however, controversial due to his pro-Russia views. He has insinuated that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was caused by Ukraine "oppressing the Russian-speakers" and thinks that Finland was misled by "propaganda" into applying for NATO membership.

If elected, I'm sure he would cause all sorts of trouble for Centre down the road, but the party is willing to ignore that for now for the votes he will attract. Väyrynen has already left the party once (before returning to it when his new party projects did not work out). He is obsessed with running for President, and I wouldn't be surprised if he leaves the party again if they don't nominate him for President in next year's election.

[Helsinkian]

New poll:

Kantar/HS:
NCP: 22.8 (-0.7)
Finns: 19.1 (+1.2)
SDP: 18.5 (-0.6)
Centre: 9.8 (-0.1)
Green: 9.2 (-0.6)
Left: 7.8 (-0.2)
SPP: 4.4 (+0.1)
CD 3.9 (+0.5)
Move: 2.2 (+0.4)
Others: 2.3 (nc)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What are the odds Marin remains PM?

[Helsinkian]

What are the odds Marin remains PM?

SDP would almost certainly have to be the largest party for that. So it seems unlikely judging by the current polls. By convention, the leader of the largest party gets the first chance at leading coalition talks.

If NCP and SDP form a coalition where NCP has the premiership, I would imagine that being the Finance Minister (the traditional lead post of the second largest coalition party) would not be very appealing for her, as that would mean implementing unpopular spending cuts.

There has been some speculation that she could be the European S&D group's lead candidate in the 2024 European Parliament election.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Started perusing Finnish election news lately.

Maaseudun Tulevaisuus (a non-partisan business paper with a special rural focus) conducted a nationwide poll about governing coalitions, and found that an NCP-SDP is the most popular option, with 27% naming it as their preference. The next most popular coalition would be an NCP-Finns Party government, with 19% support. Only 7% support a government formed by the SDP and True Finns.

The alternatives were the combinations of the three parties currently most popular in the support polls, i.e. NCP, SDP and True Finns, as well as "some other parties".

When asked about the type of economic policies preferred going forwards, 28% said they wanted right-wing economic policies, 19% said left-wing, and 11% said centrist. I can't find the full results, so not sure what the remaining 42% said, and that's a huge number left out.

When asked whether they would be personally willing to pay more taxes in order to fund welfare services going forward, a solid 53% rejected tax increases, while 33% were in favor, and the rest undecided. Age, income, and professional status had no meaningful impact on the results, but the partisan divide was more predictive: supporters of the SDP, Centre, Greens, Left, and Christian Democrats were more supportive than not of tax increases, while supporters of the NCP and True Finns were overwhelmingly opposed.

When asked about alternatives, 54% preferred to cut spending in other areas and reallocate the funds to welfare services, 40% wanted to increase training places in the sector, and only 25% wanted to increase work-based immigration for the welfare sector. Just 13% said tax increases, and only 4% supported taking on more debt.

Interesting results, given that welfare spending, debt, and the budget are turning into big dividing issues right now. The government recently presented an extra budget worth 1.7 billion EUR, of which, 1 billion alone is allotted to debt interest, due to soaring interest rates. In 2021, the interest costs for Finland's national debt was just 800 million EUR, while in 2022, it soared to 2.6 billion EUR, and will certainly climb higher this year. For context, 2.6 billion is more than is used in Finland for the police, border security, judiciary, and rescue operations.

The SDP and Left Alliance wanted the special budget to have an extra 700 million for welfare spending, but this was watered down to just 250 million in the extra budget proposal. The SDP wanted some 50 million for youth crime programs; it is now just 25 million. 100 million was also allocated to the armed forces to replace equipment donated to Ukraine.

The NCP has presented estimates for a budget consolidation of 8-9 billion EUR, phased in over two years, while Centre has proposed only 1 billion. The SDP and Left Alliance have not made any specific suggestions for savings or tax increases. The NCP and Christian Democrats want to increase certain excise taxes on harmful activities, such as tobacco, but have also said that overall taxation must not increase, and furthermore support income tax cuts. This is on top of the ongoing spending increases for national defense.

The Centre's rhetorical pivot to talking about state finance's and cutting spending opens it up to a possible coalition with the NCP, while the SDP will likely be very unwilling to cut spending especially to the welfare regions, which is the crowning achievement of the Marin government. Meanwhile, the True Finns received some backlash against a proposal to leave the EU (is it an official party plank or just the musings of one politician? I cannot tell), which even some NCP politicians pushed back against forcefully. Interesting to see if the True Finns will push euroskepticism in this election; I would assume this would be radioactive to both the Finnish electorate but also potential coalition partners.

[Helsinkian]

Meanwhile, the True Finns received some backlash against a proposal to leave the EU (is it an official party plank or just the musings of one politician? I cannot tell)

The party's leader Riikka Purra confirmed that leaving the EU is still the party's 'long-term strategic objective', as it is stated in the party's most recent EU policy program from 2019. She did also say that the party would prepare a new EU policy program next year but did not say whether this stance would change.

In practice, however, I can't see the Finns Party actually pushing for an EU exit in government in the current atmosphere. One commentator on Twitter said it pretty well that the Finns Party talking about exiting the EU is similar to left-wingers singing The Internationale: a performance meant to stir nostalgy in the base rather than actual policy. In any case, the only way for the Finns Party to get into government after the election would be with the NCP, arguably the most pro-EU party, that won't entertain any talk of leaving the EU.

[Helsinkian]

The outgoing parliament voted today 113-69 to pass the trans self-ID bill into law. Now any adult can change their legal gender by simply filling out a form and submitting it electronically to the agency in charge of census information. No diagnosis required; the only limitation is that you can't do it more than once a year.

Here is how the parties voted:

SDP: 35 yes, 5 absent
NCP: 26 yes, 10 no, 1 absent
Green: 18 yes, 2 absent
Left: 12 yes, 4 absent
Centre: 12 yes, 13 no, 5 absent
SPP: 10 yes
Finns: 39 no
CD: 5 no
Move 1 no
PBP: 1 no

So the only splits within parties were in Centre and NCP.

It is noteworthy that this is happening in a country that actively practices conscription where only men are drafted. Going forward, if you are about to be drafted, you can change your legal gender and avoid not only military service (6-12 months) but also the alternative non-armed service (12 months) meant for conscientious objectors. Normally, a man who refuses both services is given a prison sentence, though recently it has usually been reduced to house arrest.

This is different from the U.S. Selective Service which registers people based on biological sex, not gender ID, as has been noted on this forum as well. Finland makes no such distinction (and, in fact, the same word is used in Finnish for both 'sex' and 'gender').

To be fair to the Greens and the Left Alliance, at least a lot of politicians in those parties have called for conscription to be gender neutral (and more selective). But that is not the case with the other MPs who voted for the bill.

Another country that recently passed self-ID is Scotland. There Nicola Sturgeon has already had to do some backtracking when it comes to the placement of trans convicts in women's prisons. Here in Finland we have a convicted serial killer who is serving a life sentence for strangling four women; this person is currently in a men's prison but identifies as a woman. We'll have to wait and see if the politicians have to do some backtracking here as well.

[Helsinkian]

New YLE poll sees SDP regain second place. NCP also coming down.

Taloustutkimus/YLE
NCP: 21.6% (-1.4)
SDP: 19.1% (+0.3)
Finns: 18.4% (-0.9)
Green: 10.3% (+0.7)
Centre: 10.1% (-0.8 )
Left: 7.6% (-1)
SPP: 4.4% (+0.4)
CD: 4% (+1.1)
Move: 1.8% (+0.5)
Others: 2.7% (+1.1)

[DavidB.]

Are there any differing stances between parties on the "NATO membership without Sweden?" question? Or do parties emphasize unity on this issue?

I was surprised to see the Marin government give such strong statement on the matter given that its tenure is almost finished, but a big amount of unity could explain it.

[Helsinkian]

Are there any differing stances between parties on the "NATO membership without Sweden?" question? Or do parties emphasize unity on this issue?

I was surprised to see the Marin government give such strong statement on the matter given that its tenure is almost finished, but a big amount of unity could explain it.

There is a broad consensus on the matter, though individual politicians have criticized the stance. Interestingly, a recent poll found that a majority of the people (53%) think that Finland's NATO schedule should not depend on Sweden, while only 28% said that going into NATO at the same time with Sweden is a must.

[Helsinkian]

A Kantar/HS poll asked first time voters (specifically those who were too young to vote last time, not those who chose not to vote previously) who they would vote:

Finns: 28%
SDP: 13%
Green: 11%
NCP: 9%
Centre 7%
Left: 6%
CD: 1%
SPP: 1%
Move: 1%
Other: 1%
No one: 3%
Don't know: 16%
Don't want to say: 5%

This poll includes the don't knows etc. in the final results unlike most polls, and the sample was also smaller. Surprising to see Finns Party do that well among young voters, though there have been some signs of it before, and the Sweden Democrats were also the most popular party among the youngest voters in Sweden's last election. Generally, young voters skip elections more than others, and people often overstate their likelihood to vote to pollsters.

[Helsinkian]

The main Kantar/HS poll was also released -- it shows NCP's lead melting and Finns Party reaching 20% for the first time in two years:

NCP: 21.3% (-1.5)
Finns: 20% (+0.9)
SDP: 19.2% (+0.7)
Centre: 9.6% (-0.2)
Green: 9.4% (+0.2)
Left: 8% (+0.2)
SPP: 4.4% (nc)
CD: 3.9 (nc)
Move: 2% (-0.2)
Others: 2.2% (-0.1)

The phenomenon of the long-time poll leader losing their large lead also happened in the runup to the last two elections; in those cases the poll leader still came in first in the election, but with a more meagre lead.

[Helsinkian]

There has also been a rather bizarre episode with Mika Lintilä (Centre), Minister of Economic Affairs. A meme making fun of PM Sanna Marin and another SDP politician was sent from his WhatsApp account into the Centre MPs' WhatsApp group. A few hours later Lintilä announced that he had not sent the meme and that his phone had been hacked. He even specified that the hacking must have happened during his recent work trip to Africa. This of course raised the question: if an African hacker managed to gain access to the minister's phone, would he use it only to share a single Finnish-language meme and do nothing else?

The phone was handed over to the parliament's cyber security team who examined it and found no evidence of hacking. Lintilä is still denying that he sent the meme. He now speculates that his WhatsApp account must have been linked to another device, but that would require for someone to have physical access to his phone. He is requesting to see the the logging data from Meta.

The most likely explanation is that Lintilä accidentally sent the meme to the wrong group but does not want to admit it. Still, no one is asking for him to step down over this.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's not the crime, it's the coverup. Real weird how politicans are never able to learn this lesson and keep digging themselves into bigger holes.

[Helsinkian]

the other governing parties decided to advance a bill reforming Finland's Sami Parliament even though Centre was strongly opposed to it.

This bill died in committee, with Centre joining NCP and Finns Party in opposing it. That's what happens when the government is not united on their bills. I wrote about the bill earlier in the general Nordic politics thread.

In other news, the time to file candidates has ended. SDP, Finns Party, Greens and the Left Alliance are standing the maximum number of candidates. NCP, Centre Party, SPP and the Christian Democrats have a handful of candidates fewer due to electoral alliances. NCP has an electoral alliance with CD in Lapland and with SPP in Pirkanmaa and South-East Finland. Centre has an electoral alliance with CD and the Reform Movement in Helsinki. The micro parties also have a few electoral alliances with each other, but those won't result in anything. (Edit: specifically, Freedom Alliance, Finnish Nation First and Crystal Party are allied in several districts; and the Feminist Party and the Animal Justice Party also have alliances with each other.)

The parliament will be dissolved on 3 March for the election campaign.