Finland: Parliamentary election, 2 April 2023

[Helsinkian]

The thing about the EU Commission is that Finland's Commissioner has traditionally come from the Prime Minister's party. I suppose that if SDP were in government, they might come to an agreement with the NCP that grants the Commissioner's post to SDP in return for concessions in other fields, but if SDP is not in government, I cannot see why the government would nominate a person from the opposition as Commissioner.

Anyway, the parties have published their answers to Orpo. Centre Party, however, declined to answer the questions and instead repeated their stance that they would go into opposition.

Since the answers are quite lengthy, I will only summarise the so-called 'threshold issues', the sine qua non terms that the parties demand or they will otherwise not participate in government.

NCP (it answered its own questions) demands that 'the welfare society's future funding must be secured'. (A euphemistic way of saying 'reduce debt and deficit'; also note that NCP always uses the term 'welfare society' rather than 'welfare state' which is used by left-wing parties.)

Finns Party demands that such non-European immigration that is 'harmful to Finland's economy and security' must be 'considerably restricted'; that the sustainability of public spending must be addressed; and that Finland should not accept common EU debt or new EU bailout packages.

SDP demands that the government does not make cuts in the core functions of the welfare state; and that Finland continues to be committed to an ambitious climate policy.

Centre Party did not respond.

Greens demand that Finland be carbon-neutral by 2035; and that no cuts be made in education or culture or the benefits of the least well-off.

Left Alliance demands that no cuts be made in welfare spending or education; and that Finland continues an ambitious climate policy.

SPP demands that Finland 'respects human rights and international treaties'; continues its traditional EU policies; continues to be committed to the 2035 carbon neutrality goal; and that the position of the Swedish language is not weakened.

CD did not announce any threshold issues.

Movement Now demands that the budget be balanced.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why did Sanna Marin resign? She had only been PM/party leader for a few years, led her party to its best result in 16 years despite Finland's anti-incumbency tendency and would probably be PM again in 4 years if NCP and the Finns end up forming a government.

I think her party finishing third (despite its seat gains) made that pretty much inevitable.

[Helsinkian]

Tomorrow afternoon, Petteri Orpo will announce which parties will advance to the formal coalition negotiations. It is now widely expected that he will announce them to be NCP, Finns Party, SPP and CD.

While SPP politicians have complained about their problems with the Finns Party, they are so accustomed to being a government party, that it is unlikely that they would decline an invitation into the coalition. While they earlier expressed a preference for an NCP-SDP coalition, insisting on that would be seen as overplaying their hand. Finns Party has already made one concession to SPP by saying that they will not make mandatory Swedish teaching an issue in the coalition negotiations.

[Helsinkian]

It is now widely expected that he will announce them to be NCP, Finns Party, SPP and CD.

Orpo has now confirmed this. The official coalition negotiations will begin on 2 May and are expected to last a few weeks.

[Helsinkian]

A little update. There has not been much to report on the government negotiations, because Orpo has been efficient at preventing leaks (in contrast with the 2019 SDP which intentionally leaked almost everything that was discussed to see how the public was reacting to it).

This week there was a minor crisis when Finns Party demanded that the immigration and climate policies be finalised before anything else can be discussed. Then the Swedish People's Party threatened to derail the whole coalition by their opposition to immigration restrictions, while Finns Party threatened to walk out if there were not sufficient restrictions. However, the most recent news is that the parties have come to an agreement, and that suggests that the coalition talks as a whole are very likely to lead to a government.

[Helsinkian]

However, the most recent news is that the parties have come to an agreement, and that suggests that the coalition talks as a whole are very likely to lead to a government.

...though the disputes continue. Two negotiators have walked out, the leader of the SPP's youth organisation and the Finns' Party's former party secretary. The first walked out because she thought the immigration restrictions were too much; the latter walked out because he thought they were not strict enough.

[Helsinkian]

The four parties have concluded the negotiations and will form a coalition. I will update regarding the programme and the ministerial portfolios once those are made known.

[Helsinkian]

Ministerial portfolios (names should be known on Sunday):

National Coalition Party

• Prime Minister
• Foreign Affairs
• Defence
• Employment
• Social Security
• Local Administration
• Culture and Science
• Environment and Climate

Finns Party

• Finance
• Economic Affairs
• Interior
• Justice
• Health
• Foreign Trade and Development
• Transport and Communications

Swedish People's Party

• Education
• Europe
• Sport and Youth (for two years)

Christian Democrats

• Agriculture
• Sport and Youth (for two years)

Select policies from the government programme

• Lowering income taxes by a half-a-billion euros; some sales taxes will go up by a smaller sum; some relief to inheritance tax
• Cutting unemployment and other welfare benefits by over 1.5 billion euros
• Moving towards a 'single welfare benefit' model (similar to UK's universal credit)
• Private health care providers will be used to support the over-burdened public health care system
• Cracking down on strikes, especially the "support strikes" in support of another union in an unrelated field; workers can be personally fined for illegal strikes in addition to their union being fined
• Asylum will be granted for three years max, after which it is reassessed
• Various other asylum restrictions, like cancelling asylum from those who go on vacations in the countries from which they fled
• Cutting the number of refugees accepted via the quota system by half
• If a non-EU migrant on a work visa loses their job, they must find a new one within three months or leave the country; their required income threshold also goes up, but only slightly
• Immigrants' rights to welfare benefits will be curtailed
• Stricter requirements for gaining citizenship, incl. 8 years residency, income requirements, a citizenship test and a stricter language-proficiency requirement
• Cutting foreign aid; and it won't go to countries supporting Russia, nor to countries that refuse to take back their deported citizens
• Hiring more police officers
• Being a member of a criminal gang will lead to a longer sentence; minimum sentences for illegal weapons will also be raised
• Ending the state's gambling monopoly
• Further weakening the state's alcohol monopoly by permitting grocery stores to sell drinks of up to 8% alcohol by volume instead of the current 5.5% (the three other parties had wanted to go further and bring all wines into grocery stores, leaving only the spirits to the state monopoly, but the Christian Democrats vetoed that)

There is a caveat that several of the programme's policies are worded in phrases like "will examine the feasibility of x" etc., which leaves some wiggle-room in the future.

[PSOL]

The Nordic model has been dead for some time now, but now it’s spread to Finland.

[mileslunn]

Definitely seems like shift to right although on immigration not unlike Denmark as Europe wasn't built on immigration like Australia, Canada, NZ, or US were.  Also with free mobility of labour within EU, many shortages can probably with right incentives be filled by other EU nationals who immigration rules don't apply to.

On welfare policy, may seem a shift to right but I suspect Finland's welfare state will still be more generous than most in Europe by end of term.  Tax cuts don't seem that big but with a deficit and cuts probably don't have room and will have to wait until second term (if they get one) for larger tax cuts.  Wondering if tax cuts mainly impact low and middle income which left traditionally supports as well or more high income which is a traditional policy of right but controversial.  To be fair top tax rates if you include social security contributions are something like 56% to 58% in Finland so dropping them a bit probably a good idea economically.  Also for wealthy could just raise brackets where they kick in without changing amount so fewer get hit by higher brackets.

On climate change seems standard for European parties.  For law and order yeah tough but that seems universally popular even if academia hates it.  Be interesting to see which state owned firms they sell or reduce shareholding.  Wonder if Fortum or Fingrid are on table for sales as well as post office and railways?  For Alko 8% at grocery store is lax compared to other Nordic Countries with government monopolies but still stricter than any non-Nordic European country (most have no restrictions while Netherlands is 15%).  Even US who had prohibition is only stricter in Utah (a few states ban grocery store sales or require in separate section but they are all private unlike Finland).  That is looser than most of Canada save Quebec, but in Canada most provinces allow private liquor stores to compete with government ones which Finland bans. 

On health care, seems lots of places utilizing private more but my understanding is govt will still pay for it.  Finland like other European countries allows one to go private for payment but I don't believe in program they are trying to have that replace public system.  Canada and US are outliers here as former bans private payment for quicker access, latter lacks universal health care. 

Cutting foreign aid interesting but with Finns party involved not surprised.  Ironically UK during austerity under Cameron government that was the only area or one of the few they did not cut. 

Anyone have English translation as English only gives excerpts while Finnish and Swedish complete?

[Helsinkian]

Anyone have English translation as English only gives excerpts while Finnish and Swedish complete?

On the government site which has the excerpts PDF in English it is stated that "The full translation of the Government Programme will be published shortly on the Government website at https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en".

On health care, yes, the state would purchase services from the private health care providers in addition to having the public health care system, which suffers from long waiting times. Though Finland has public health care, most large employers also offer private health care, which is preferred by everyone who has access to it. I'm currently on public health care, but I always go to a private dentist because the waiting time for a check-up at the public dentist can be five months. Already in earlier times, the state has covered a part of the cost of going to private, but the Marin government cut that compensation into minimal levels in order to promote the public sector.

[mileslunn]

Anyone have English translation as English only gives excerpts while Finnish and Swedish complete?

On the government site which has the excerpts PDF in English it is stated that "The full translation of the Government Programme will be published shortly on the Government website at https://valtioneuvosto.fi/en".

On health care, yes, the state would purchase services from the private health care providers in addition to having the public health care system, which suffers from long waiting times. Though Finland has public health care, most large employers also offer private health care, which is preferred by everyone who has access to it. I'm currently on public health care, but I always go to a private dentist because the waiting time for a check-up at the public dentist can be five months. Already in earlier times, the state has covered a part of the cost of going to private, but the Marin government cut that compensation into minimal levels in order to promote the public sector.

For tax cuts, what are exact ones planned if known?  Is it lower, middle, or higher income mainly geared to or for all?

For privatization, which state owned firms are they planning to sell shares in or sell outright?

And on balance would you describe this is a very right wing document or is it pretty standard for right wing elsewhere in Europe, just maybe a bit more than Finland is used to?

[Helsinkian]

For tax cuts, what are exact ones planned if known?  Is it lower, middle, or higher income mainly geared to or for all?

The programme speaks of income tax cuts that would be especially felt by low and middle income earners, and an additional tax deduction for all people with children.

For privatization, which state owned firms are they planning to sell shares in or sell outright?

Individual companies to be sold are not named, but it states broadly that the societal need for such companies will be evalued on a case-by-case basis, and that the state should not supplant private ownership. In any case, the state railway company VR will be challenged by private competition in the future.

And on balance would you describe this is a very right wing document or is it pretty standard for right wing elsewhere in Europe, just maybe a bit more than Finland is used to?

In Finnish context it is very much right-wing, and the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat characterised it as the most right-wing government post-WWII.

[mileslunn]

Agreed most right wing in Finland post WWII, but seems a lot of places in Europe having this.  Right in general throughout western world becoming more right wing than past so anytime they win this is probably the case.  Perhaps on economic issues in English speaking countries, not case as you had Reagan/Thatcher revolutions whereas in non English speaking world you had policies going in similar direction but nowhere nearly as dramatic.

[mileslunn]

For tax cuts, what are exact ones planned if known?  Is it lower, middle, or higher income mainly geared to or for all?

The programme speaks of income tax cuts that would be especially felt by low and middle income earners, and an additional tax deduction for all people with children.

For privatization, which state owned firms are they planning to sell shares in or sell outright?

Individual companies to be sold are not named, but it states broadly that the societal need for such companies will be evalued on a case-by-case basis, and that the state should not supplant private ownership. In any case, the state railway company VR will be challenged by private competition in the future.

And on balance would you describe this is a very right wing document or is it pretty standard for right wing elsewhere in Europe, just maybe a bit more than Finland is used to?

In Finnish context it is very much right-wing, and the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat characterised it as the most right-wing government post-WWII.

Tax deduction for more children makes sense if you are going to cut immigration.  With aging population, it is either get birth rate up or increase immigration.  Wondering if government plans to raise retirement age or just offer incentives to work longer but not raise it like France did which was quite controversial.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Overall a program that is much more NCP than Finns compared to what I expected, but still the cuts to welfare services, unemployment benefits, municipal budgets, sick pay, infrastructure spending, etc. combined with raising the 10% VAT rate to 14% tells me this government is going to become unpopular very quickly.


Helsingin Sanomat has long, list-form articles detailing the government agreement point-by-point:
https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000009660743.html
https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000009660191.html

One interesting thing to me was that they are copying the German idea of having "priority countries" for immigration. Finland wants to designate India, the Philippines, Brazil and Vietnam as such.

The labor market reforms are really ghastly things, but that is to be expected from the political right:

The use of the political right to industrial action is limited to expressions of opinion lasting a maximum of one day. Support strikes are subject to a proportionality assessment and notification obligation according to the Labor Disputes Act. In the future, legal support labor disputes will only be those that are reasonable in relation to the goals and whose effects only affect the parties to the labor dispute.

The level of the restitution fine for illegal industrial action will be increased, and the upper limit of the fine will be 150,000 euros and the lower limit will be 10,000 euros. For the continuation of a strike judged by the labor court to be an illegal industrial action, a fine of 200 euros is imposed on the employee for participating in an illegal industrial action.

The bans on local bargaining concerning unorganized companies that follow a universally binding collective agreement will be removed from the labor legislation. The labor legislation is changed so that a collective agreement concluded with the company can also agree to deviate from the same provisions of the labor legislation, which are now only possible with a national collective agreement. The possibility of deviation requires that the collective agreement has been concluded on the part of the employees by either a national association of employees or an employee association belonging to it.

Local agreement is made possible at the company level so that the agreement can be a shop steward, a shop steward, another representative chosen by the staff or the entire staff, i.e. the so-called "shop steward lock" is removed. The protection of shop stewards and other staff representatives elected for a fixed period of time is regulated by law to the same level as it is currently laid down by law for shop stewards.

The current regulation of the Employment Contracts Act on fixed-term employment contracts will be changed in such a way that in the future it would be possible to enter into a fixed-term employment contract even without a special reason for one year.

The requirement of the Employment Contracts Act for the layoff notice period is shortened to seven days, and this can be followed regardless of the provisions of the collective agreement.

The sick pay is changed in such a way that the first day of sickness absence is a self-responsibility day, for which the employer is not obliged to pay wages, unless otherwise agreed in the terms of employment or employment contract. The self-responsibility day would not be applied to sick leaves of five days or longer or when the incapacity for work is due to an accident at work or an occupational disease.

The regulation of grounds for termination related to a person will be changed so that a valid reason would be sufficient to terminate an employment contract in the future.

The scope of the Cooperation Act is increased to the level allowed by EU regulations, to companies and communities that regularly employ 50 employees. The requirements of the Cooperation Act regarding the minimum times for change negotiations are shortened by half.

The employee re-employment obligation based on the Employment Contracts Act is removed in companies and organizations that regularly employ less than 50 people, and this regulation can be followed regardless of the provisions of the collective agreement.

[mileslunn]

Seems somewhat conservative by Nordic standards but as someone more familiar with conservatism in Anglosphere, hardly radical.  British Tories depending on leader have gone much further.  In US, this looks more like a document you would expect from the Blue Dog Democrats not modern GOP.  Australian Liberals more conservative than this while for NZ National party seems pretty typical.  Canadian conservatives a lot more liberal on immigration, but on many other issues quite a bit more conservative.  Asides immigration, this looks more like what party was like 20 years ago not today.  Yeah I get English speaking world a lot different than Finland and not sure how much appetite there is to follow the Anglo-Saxon model.  True present leaders of Canada, US, Australia, and NZ are all to left of this but all represent left of centre parties.  Ardern & Trudeau were quite similar to Marin in terms of policy while Biden is at heart but due to divided congress has to be more centrist.  Maybe as conservative or more so than Rishi Sunak and definitely more fiscally conservative than that of Boris Johnson, but like Thatcher government, in cuts not as severe as under David Cameron, while doesn't have massive tax cuts for rich like Liz Truss tried to do until dumped by party. 

[Helsinkian]

Ministers have been named:

National Coalition Party

• Prime Minister: Petteri Orpo
• Foreign Affairs: Elina Valtonen
• Defence: Antti Häkkänen
• Employment: Arto Satonen
• Social Security: Sanni Grahn-Laasonen
• Local Administration: Anna-Kaisa Ikonen
• Culture and Science: Sari Multala
• Environment and Climate: Kai Mykkänen

Finns Party

• Finance (and Deputy PM): Riikka Purra
• Economic Affairs: Vilhelm Junnila
• Interior: Mari Rantanen
• Justice: Leena Meri
• Health and Social Services: Kaisa Juuso
• Foreign Trade and Development: Ville Tavio
• Transport and Communications: Lulu Ranne

Swedish People's Party

• Education: Anna-Maja Henriksson
• Europe and State Ownership: Anders Adlercreutz
• Sport and Youth (until 2025, then CD gets it): Sandra Bergqvist

Christian Democrats

• Agriculture and Forestry: Sari Essayah

So 12 out of 19 ministers are women. That is actually one more compared to the outgoing #GirlbossGovernment which was 11 out of 19.

Prior to the ministers being named, there was much speculation on whether the Finns Party's former leader Jussi Halla-aho would become minister. In the event, he is going to become the Parliament's Speaker instead. While that is of course a prestigious position, it is also an apolitical position. It is conceivable that NCP and SPP asked the Finns Party to not name him into the cabinet.

The government is set to begin work tomorrow.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

First resignation of a minister in just 10 days is a new record.

https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000009689141.html

Minister of Economic Affairs Vilhelm Junnila (Finns) resigns from his ministerial position just one day after surviving a vote of no confidence.

The no-confidence vote was taken because Junnila had appeared at extreme right-wing events and hinted at white supremacy and Adolf Hitler in his election ads and social media . On Friday, more information about his activities became public, and the government partner Christian Democrats were also shocked.

Päivi Räsänen, chairwoman of the governing party Christian Democrats, brought up a written question that Junnila asked in parliament in 2019 on Thursday evening , which dismayed her and other Christian Democrats.

On Friday, KD party chairman Sari Essayah demands that Junnila resign from the idea of ​​"climate abortions" presented in the question.

In the question, Junnila suggested, among other things, that population growth in Africa and the climate damage it causes should be curbed by promoting so-called "climate abortions".

"This is a shocking text. The idea apparently is that population growth would be curbed through abortions by African mothers. This is eco-fascism of the worst kind," Essayah says to Helsingin Sanomat.

It remains to be seen how this affects the government (probably not much, a small sh*tstorm that eventually fades away but is used as criticism). I do think that it makes Orpo look bad, that instead of taking initiative here, Junnila's resignation only came about because of a foreign media firestorm and public pressure. Orpo could have also resisted Riikka Purra's demands that Junnila be included in government in the first place.

[Helsinkian]

It seems that the President won't officially confirm Junnila's resignation until next week, which means that he won't be the shortest-serving minister in history after all, as that will allow him to be minister for a couple days longer than the current record holder from the 1930s.

I wrote briefly about the Junnila controversies in the Great Nordic Thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=150978.msg9117890#msg9117890