Finland: Parliamentary election, 2 April 2023

[Sestak]

How likely is it that we get a NCP/SDP Grand Coalition to box the Finns Party out?

NCP+SDP+Centre is the only workable coalition I'm seeing.

Centre ostensibly doesn't want to go into government. Greens and SPP would also be viable to join NCP-SDP - the Finnish Greens aren't very radical and have joined broad governments (including NCP-led ones) before.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why haven't the Finns been able to get themselves included into any coallation ? it seems like they've been in goverment before.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Are there detailed exit polls/voter surveys available? Would be interesting to see how age, gender, occupation, most important issues, etc. broke down. I wonder if Finland has as bad of a gender gap as Sweden does.

[Helsinkian]

Centre Party says they are going to opposition. Then again, they said the same thing four years ago before changing course.

Elections are about trust. Only one conclusion can be made from the result: Centre Party's place is in the opposition.

This is also the beginning of Centre's renewal. Better days are ahead, so forward.

Annika Saarikko on Twitter

Are there detailed exit polls/voter surveys available? Would be interesting to see how age, gender, occupation, most important issues, etc. broke down. I wonder if Finland has as bad of a gender gap as Sweden does.

The only exit poll was the one made by MTV which turned out to be very wrong in the main results (watching MTV, it was clear that they did not have much confidence in it either, as they moved on to other things pretty quickly), and I haven't seen them report other numbers from it after that.

[DavidB.]

If Center truly want to be in opposition, there is no road to a majority government with PS (assuming PS can't sit together with SDP and SPP). NCP, PS, KD and Move have exactly 100 out of 200 seats. Therefore, Center's early announcement weakens NCP's position in negotiations with SDP.

The most straightforward alternative would then be a grand coalition with NCP, SDP and a third party - SPP or the Greens. Given NCP's right-wing orientation and the Greens' loss, SPP seems the logical option.

The only exit poll was the one made by MTV which turned out to be very wrong in the main results (watching MTV, it was clear that they did not have much confidence in it either, as they moved on to other things pretty quickly), and I haven't seen them report other numbers from it after that.

Purely from a statistical perspective, it wasn't a bad poll. The biggest screwups were actually the figures for the Greens and the Left. It just provided a wrong picture of the photofinish among the three biggest parties, which are within 30k votes from each other.

[Aboa]

If Center truly want to be in opposition, there is no road to a majority government with PS (assuming PS can't sit together with SDP and SPP). NCP, PS, KD and Move have exactly 100 out of 200 seats. Therefore, Center's early announcement weakens NCP's position in negotiations with SDP.

The most straightforward alternative would then be a grand coalition with NCP, SDP and a third party - SPP or the Greens. Given NCP's right-wing orientation and the Greens' loss, SPP seems the logical option.

I doubt they'll end up forming government with such a narrow majority (101-99).

Regarding the Greens their leader Ohisalo didn't outright rule out participating in government but said that they have "extremely high threshold" in participating not accepting any cuts to education or climate goals nor policies increasing inequality.

[DavidB.]

Why is the Left so strong in Southwest Finland, and in Turku specifically, where they got 17%?

[Helsinkian]

Why is the Left so strong in Southwest Finland, and in Turku specifically, where they got 17%?

That is where the party leader Li Andersson is from.

[Logical]

Another electoral record broken yesterday. This was the first time ever SDP or their predecessor parties did not win first place in the Häme/Tavastia constituency. Finns Party finished first with 24.4% of the vote to SDP's 23.7%, breaking a streak that began in 1907 (!)

[Helsinkian]

Sanna Marin has announced that she won't seek a new term as SDP's leader (she will step down in the party congress next autumn). She also said that she would not serve as minister if the next coalition included SDP, though she would still be prepared to lead the SDP in the coalition negotiations. In any case, she believes that the NCP is leaning more towards the Finns Party anyway. She also said that she would not be SDP's candidate for President next year.

If she is correct about NCP's leanings, and if Centre sticks to its announcement on going into opposition, then it could be that NCP is trying for an option that I mentioned in the introduction to this thread, namely NCP + Finns + SPP + CD. A key question would then be the compatibility of Finns Party and SPP.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Sanna Marin has announced that she won't seek a new term as SDP's leader (she will step down in the party congress next autumn). She also said that she would not serve as minister if the next coalition included SDP, though she would still be prepared to lead the SDP in the coalition negotiations. In any case, she believes that the NCP is leaning more towards the Finns Party anyway. She also said that she would not be SDP's candidate for President next year.

If she is correct about NCP's leanings, and if Centre sticks to its announcement on going into opposition, then it could be that NCP is trying for an option that I mentioned in the introduction to this thread, namely NCP + Finns + SPP + CD. A key question would then be the compatibility of Finns Party and SPP.

Which is the bigger news in Finland right now? The party chump's election defeat or your country's accession to NATO?

[Helsinkian]

They are both big news, of course, but the NATO accession had been already secured a couple days before the election, though the formalities only happened yesterday.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So why exactly did PS do so well this time around? Given the current international context, I would have expected this to be a particularly bad year for them if anything.

[Cassius]

So why exactly did PS do so well this time around? Given the current international context, I would have expected this to be a particularly bad year for them if anything.

If you’re talking about NATO and Ukraine, the Finns are pro-both*, so it’s not a point of differentiation between them and the other parties. Whilst, understandably, Finland’s accession to NATO has been in the headlines, as per my understanding the campaign revolved heavily around domestic issues, especially the country’s debt level, which benefited both the NCP and the Finns who campaigned on debt reduction.

* It’s also worth emphasising that the Finns have switched their European Parliamentary grouping from ID to the ECR. The latter of those two is very pro-Ukraine, which isn’t surprising given that PiS is the dominant party within that grouping (indeed, the group’s chair is the very right-wing Ryszard Legutko).

[Helsinkian]

The election results have been confirmed. The verification count brought no changes to seats. Minister Sirpa Paatero's loss in South-East Finland to her fellow Social Democrat Paula Werning narrowed from 14 votes to 7 votes. In the same district, Finns Party MP Jani Mäkelä survived with 18 votes more than the next person on the list.

[DL]

So why exactly did PS do so well this time around? Given the current international context, I would have expected this to be a particularly bad year for them if anything.

If you’re talking about NATO and Ukraine, the Finns are pro-both*, so it’s not a point of differentiation between them and the other parties. Whilst, understandably, Finland’s accession to NATO has been in the headlines, as per my understanding the campaign revolved heavily around domestic issues, especially the country’s debt level, which benefited both the NCP and the Finns who campaigned on debt reduction.

Since when does anyone care about debt reduction? I know there was a brief moment in the mid 1990s when deficits and debt were suddenly the flavour of the month in western democracies (in Canada and elsewhere), but in recent years I was under the impression that national debt was a virtual non-issue in every country.

Every country was forced to do massive amounts of borrowing during them pandemic and it seems like voters just accept it. There is now massive new debt in Canada, the US, the UK, Germany etc...and presumably Finland too. But it doesn't seem to me that there is any appetite on the part of the public to bring in the kinds of drastic spending cuts that would be required to balance the budget. In last year's federal election in Canada the Tories saw the writing on the wall and their "aggressive" debt reduction policy consisted of a promise to balance the budget in the next TEN YEARS :-).

What makes Finland so unique in terms of debt reduction being such a big vote determining issue. I don't think Finland's debt/GDP ratio is any worse than Canada's and in Canada I doubt if you could find more than 4% or 5% of the population that gives a hoot about the national debt and that 5% are all hard core Tory voters anyways whose votes are never up for grabs.  

[DavidB.]

Any news on NCP's formation preferences? What does the process look like?

[MaxQue]

Any news on NCP's formation preferences? What does the process look like?

Seems they will elect the temporary Speaker on Wednesday (that should be Orpo and that will give him the power to lead negociations) and the parties will begin their meetings on Thursday.

https://yle.fi/a/74-20026451

[Helsinkian]

Yes, and then Orpo will send questionnaires to the parties regarding questions likely to arise during the coalition negotiations (it is traditional to send them to all parties). After having received the parties' replies, Orpo will announce which parties will participate in the final negotiations.

A survey done by Helsingin Sanomat of NCP district leaders found that they would prefer Finns Party over SDP (though many did not express a preference). Orpo himself has not wanted to comment yet.

[Helsinkian]

Petteri Orpo was elected interim speaker of the parliament. Another speaker will be elected once the government has been formed. Juho Eerola of the Finns Party and Tarja Filatov of SDP were elected as deputy speakers. Traditionally, the speaker is elected from the second-largest coalition party, so one of them will probably become speaker once the government negotiations have concluded. The speaker does not vote in parliament, but the deputy speakers do. The speaker, deputy speakers and committee chairs together make up the "speaker's council" which is responsible for the parliament's schedule and other day-to-day issues.

Statistics on the new parliament:

Old and new MPs

Re-elected MPs: 139
New MPs: 61
(Lost re-election: 31)

Age

Average age: 46.7
Oldest MP: Kimmo Kiljunen (SDP), 71
Youngest MP: Olga Oinas-Panuma (Centre), 23

Gender

108 men and 92 women

By parliamentary group:

NCP: 29 men, 19 women
Finns: 29 men, 17 women
SDP: 21 men, 22 women
Centre: 14 men, 9 women
Green: 3 men, 10 women
Left: 2 men, 9 women
SPP + Åland: 7 men, 3 women
CD: 2 men, 3 women
MN: 1 man

Education

Doctorate: 15
Master's degree or equivalent: 106
Bachelor's degree or equivalent: 39
Vocational school: 21
High school: 9
Other/not specified: 10

Double and triple mandates

MP, municipal councillor and county councillor: 107
MP and municipal councillor: 69
MP and county councillor: 4

The final statistic shows the cumul des mandats that has become commonplace. One wonders how they will have time for all that; though the municipal and county councils only meet around twice per month or so, preparing for them takes more time.

[Helsinkian]

Petteri Orpo sent the other parties a questionnaire that includes questions on around two dozen themes. Questions relating to budget cuts were given priority, which has been interpreted as the NCP leaning towards Finns Party rather than SDP; it seems that there have been more informal talks between NCP and Finns Party as well, and Purra seemed confident in her comments today.

The parties will respond to Orpo next week, and the parties going into the formal coalition negotiations should be known by 1 May.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000009525526.html

To add some more: all parties except the Left Party have received questionnaires from the NCP.

The SDP is, however, entering the negotiations with a hard line on welfare and social services, arguing that there is no need to compromise on this given the gains SDP made in the election. The SDP is divided between "no compromises at all, go into opposition" vs. "moderate compromises to prevent worse cuts under a full-right wing government". The no compromises current is also of the mind that the Finns should be allowed to come to power in order to reveal their true beliefs on economic and welfare issues, and having to own any cuts should they agree to the NCP's positions.

The party questionnaire is due by Tuesday at noon, and full discussions should begin on either the 24th or 25th. Orpo has said that the parties who will form the government should be known by May 1st, and if things go smoothly, a new government could be installed in June.

https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000009523559.html

In other news, Antti Lindtman announced he is running for party leader of the SDP to succeed Sanna Marin at the party congress in September. He is a 40-year-old fourth-term MP from Vantaa, and has been the chairman of the SDP's parliamentary group since 2015. Lindtman came in second behind Marin in the leadership race in 2019; he did not talk about the significant differences between them, but rather emphasized their similarities, no doubt due to Marin's popularity in the party.

Other SDP MPs who are considering running are Tytti Tuppurainen, Krista Kiuru, and Timo Harakka, none of whom have made an official decision yet, but are thinking about it.

In one poll, 33% of Finns say that Lindtman would be the best SDP party leader, and is also favored amongst SDP voters:

[crals]

Why did Sanna Marin resign? She had only been PM/party leader for a few years, led her party to its best result in 16 years despite Finland's anti-incumbency tendency and would probably be PM again in 4 years if NCP and the Finns end up forming a government.

[Mike88]

Why did Sanna Marin resign? She had only been PM/party leader for a few years, led her party to its best result in 16 years despite Finland's anti-incumbency tendency and would probably be PM again in 4 years if NCP and the Finns end up forming a government.

I read, I think on Politico, before the election, that she may vie for an EU job.

Speculation now swirls over Marin’s future and whether she will continue as leader of her party in Finland. Even before the election was settled, some colleagues in Finland were suggesting she could seek a new challenge at the European Commission, possibly even as the Left group’s candidate for president.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I believe Marin really means it when she says that she's been under a lot of pressure and that she just wants to chill out for a while.

In addition to the past 3 years of nonstop crises, one after the other, which takes an enormous toll on anyone, the media and the public have made her go through so many unfounded rumours, breaches of personal privacy, and so much misogyny that I understand that she must be exhausted and heartbroke by the constant attacks.

The populist right have been saying that she wants to move up for as long as she has been prime minister, in an attempt to make it look like she's only doing it for personal gain and doesn't truly care about her job. The press has gleefully and enthusiastically partaken spreading these rumors ever since she announced that she won't be running for another term as the party leader (friendly reminder that Politico is not a serious news source, but a political gossip column).

It's nothing but rumors. She has not ever hinted that she would want to move up to the EU. Maybe she will, sure, but right now the speculation has been based on zero facts.