Sleeper house races in 2024?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What are some potential sleeper competitive house races in 2024?

I will go first and say AZ-05. This district contains the east valley which has been traditionally conservative for decades and the area has given way to many famous republican politicans notably John McCain, Jeff Flake, Matt Salmon. However, recently it has been trending Dem pretty quick. Trump won it by 16 in 2020, and Blake Masters was held to single digits. The current representative is the infamous Andy Biggs who is known to be very right wing and is going to challenge McCarthy for speaker. Democrats have never nominated a serious candidate to take on Biggs, but if the district continues to shift left and Biggs keeps burning bridges (in a place that went McCain+31 in 2016 to Masters+9), he might actually have a fight on his hands.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL we have two yrs for this

[wesmoorenerd]

WI-01 and PA-10 were both weirdly quiet races in 2022, but they're both marginal districts (Trump +2 and +4, respectively) and Dems came within single digits in both despite basically no investment. I reckon Dems were scared off by Ironstache's awful performance in WI-01 in 2018, but they should definitely target it in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

There were a lot of seats that Trump won by single or low double digits that were not seriously contested this year.
-MI-04
-MO-02
-PA-10
-SC-01
-TN-05
-TX-24
-VA-01
-WI-01

A lot of these contain suburban areas that have been moving away from the GOP.

As for GOP targets, there are fewer options, given most of the districts they narrowly lost were expected to be competitive. FL-09 and FL-23 all were unexpectedly close this year.

[Schiff for Senate]

WI-01 and PA-10 were both weirdly quiet races in 2022, but they're both marginal districts (Trump +2 and +4, respectively) and Dems came within single digits in both despite basically no investment. I reckon Dems were scared off by Ironstache's awful performance in WI-01 in 2018, but they should definitely target it in 2024.

Worth noting that WI01, post-redistricting, is a bit bluer than WI03. And of course, its character is such that #trends are less worrying for the Democrats. So yeah, it's definitely a district Democrats should seriously contest it 2024. The path to winning a 3rd seat in WI is no longer in Ron Kind's seat, but rather runs through Southeast WI.

[The Arizonan]

I think David Schweikert and Ann Wagner could potentially face upsets in 2024.

[TwinGeeks99]

I think David Schweikert and Ann Wagner could potentially face upsets in 2024.

Considering how narrow David Schweikert's margin of victory was despite little to no investment on the part of the DCCC and the fact that even Kathy Hoffman (who lost statewide) carried his district it's going to be the furthest thing away from an upset if he gets defeated in 2024.

[Tekken_Guy]

WI-01 and PA-10 were both weirdly quiet races in 2022, but they're both marginal districts (Trump +2 and +4, respectively) and Dems came within single digits in both despite basically no investment. I reckon Dems were scared off by Ironstache's awful performance in WI-01 in 2018, but they should definitely target it in 2024.

Worth noting that WI01, post-redistricting, is a bit bluer than WI03. And of course, its character is such that #trends are less worrying for the Democrats. So yeah, it's definitely a district Democrats should seriously contest it 2024. The path to winning a 3rd seat in WI is no longer in Ron Kind's seat, but rather runs through Southeast WI.

To be fair, Steil is able to attract a lot of crossover support that I don’t think Van Orden will be able to replicate. Both start out favored but neither of them are safe for 2024.

[Mr.Phips]

There were a lot of seats that Trump won by single or low double digits that were not seriously contested this year.
-MI-04
-MO-02
-PA-10
-SC-01
-TN-05
-TX-24
-VA-01
-WI-01

A lot of these contain suburban areas that have been moving away from the GOP.

As for GOP targets, there are fewer options, given most of the districts they narrowly lost were expected to be competitive. FL-09 and FL-23 all were unexpectedly close this year.

FL-09 and FL-23 being as close as they were was a product of rock bottom Dem turnout.  Those turnout dynamics won’t be replicated in 2024.

[Devils30]

If Dems win the WI Supreme Court we might get better maps for WI-1 and 3.

[Roll Roons]

If Dems win the WI Supreme Court we might get better maps for WI-1 and 3.

The current WI-03 is probably just about as favorable for Democrats as it could possibly be, barring a split of Dane.

[jamestroll]

I agree on WI 01.

Believe it or not.. CO 05 is my pick for a sleeper race late this decade .