President Ted Cruz (R-TX) / Vice President Michele Bachmann (R-TN)
Fmr. President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) ✓
It would take a little more than that for Cruz to win in 2012 IMO, probably a double dip recession caused by a few different decisions in the European debt crisis or maybe a big terrorist attack.
My guess is that Cruz, like any Republican president elected then or Obama IOTL for that matter, wouldn't have a great time. Democrats could bring back the Bush era playbook over the Snowden leaks, probable intervention in the Middle East (less likely to put boots on the ground in Syria or start a war with Iran than Romney IMO, but there would definitely be elements in his administration pushing for it), and attacks on Obergefell v. Hodges. There would also be backlash to ACA repeal. Obama wouldn't come out of the primary fight with Clinton and Sanders undamaged (McAuliffe- a Clinton ally- as VP seems to suggest some concessions had to be made), but he could win a close one.
In this scenario, I don't think Clinton and Obama run against each other. Obama's young enough, that if he really wanted to run again, he'd likely defer to Clinton here, and run in 2020 if she loses, or 2024 if she wins as either race would be an open-seat race.
Anyways, I think Obama sweeps the Midwest against Cruz, who isn't able to tap into white grievance politics as effectively as Trump did IRL (I imagine the reason Cruz won in this 2012 is a populist Occupy Wall street campaign that drew large amounts of votes from Obama, frankly).
I don't think Clinton would support McAuliffe as VP pick. I think she'd want a woman on the ticket, hence why I'm suggesting Kirsten Gillibrand.
Former President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) 52%
President Ted Cruz (R-TX)/Vice President Michelle Bachmann (R-MN) 46.5%
