Why does Rand Paul routinely underperform the national GOP in Kentucky?

[Matty]

One of the more quirky things that has now happened 3 straight cycles for him

[NewYorkExpress]

Rand Paul underperforms the national GOP for the same reason Matt Bevin lost in 2019. His brand of Libertarianism really isn't particularly popular with the voters he needs to win. Indeed, I would say Paul would be a trendy upset pick, either in a GOP Primary or in a general election in 2028 if he runs again.

[Ferguson97]

I mean if it's happened three cycles in a row, then it's probably less of a "quirk" and more of him being a weaker candidate than a Generic R.

[Annatar]

I would say the gap has shrunk a lot from 2016 to 2022, in 2016 Trump carried KY by 29.8% whereas Rand won by 14.5%, a difference of 15.3%, in 2020 Trump won by 25.9% and Rand won in 2022 by 23.6%, not much of a difference.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Because he is an awful human being and nobody cares about his ideology.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Very few Americans are libertarians. News at 11

[Inmate Trump]

Because he is an awful human being and nobody cares about his ideology.

This.

There are many people who'll vote along party lines (especially in a state like Kentucky), and there are many who will vote against someone who is an a$$hole. Rand is an a$$hole.

[TML]

I would say the gap has shrunk a lot from 2016 to 2022, in 2016 Trump carried KY by 29.8% whereas Rand won by 14.5%, a difference of 15.3%, in 2020 Trump won by 25.9% and Rand won in 2022 by 23.6%, not much of a difference.

That's because of downballot realignment - it takes some time for voting patterns at the top of the ticket to filter down to lower-level offices. This is especially true of many rural KY counties where a majority or plurality of voters are still registered as Democrats but have been voting Republican for offices at or near the top of the ticket in recent elections.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Because he is an awful human being and nobody cares about his ideology.

This.

There are many people who'll vote along party lines (especially in a state like Kentucky), and there are many who will vote against someone who is an a$$hole. Rand is an a$$hole.

Why does Rand Paul underperform Trump? lol

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McConnell underperforms the top of the ticket as well. Basically its senators just suck.

[Coldstream]

He’s a terrible person with a terrible ideology.

[Schiff for Senate]

I would say the gap has shrunk a lot from 2016 to 2022, in 2016 Trump carried KY by 29.8% whereas Rand won by 14.5%, a difference of 15.3%, in 2020 Trump won by 25.9% and Rand won in 2022 by 23.6%, not much of a difference.

A lot of it is because rural ancestral D voters in places like, well, Elliott County, who voted against Paul in 2010 and/or 2016, voted for him in 2022.

[Del Tachi]

Libertarians suck. 

[Mr. Smith]

Jim Gray was a very good fit, and while I'm not normally one to second-guess primaries, I have little doubt he would've won 2018 and maybe even still represent KY-06.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Rand is a poor fit for Kentucky. Had someone who was ideologically similar to JBE or even Beshear run, it's possible they could've beaten him.

[Sir Mohamed]

Isn't he actually a bad fit for KY? I think someone more economic populist and socially conservative would fare better. If KY was a swing state, he might lose even in R-friendly environments.

[coloradocowboi]

Libertarians suck. 

We need better quality data on political ideology. It would be easy to get it from the political compass and just build a representative sample size.

My hunch is that we would find out that most Americans with “libertarian” tendencies are leftists, and that right libertarians are a tiny minority, over-represented among tech types and thus also the beneficiary of algorithms and moderators who are biased toward them.

But the truth is unadulterated free market capitalism is not anybody’s electoral priority but the rich

[Ragnaroni]

Because they don't like him?

[Del Tachi]

Libertarians suck. 

We need better quality data on political ideology. It would be easy to get it from the political compass and just build a representative sample size.

My hunch is that we would find out that most Americans with “libertarian” tendencies are leftists, and that right libertarians are a tiny minority, over-represented among tech types and thus also the beneficiary of algorithms and moderators who are biased toward them.

But the truth is unadulterated free market capitalism is not anybody’s electoral priority but the rich

This assumes that voters have well-defined ideologies and issue positions to begin with, which is not something I'm ready to admit.  Voters mostly evaluate candidates based on some vague likability or identity-based criterion, and then just regurgitate the campaign's or aligned media's talking points to justify their vote.

Rand Paul does worse than "Generic R" in KY exactly because he is perceived as some weird, out-of-touch, orthodox ideologue.  This is the exact same reason Cruz underperfoms Generic R in Texas. 

[Pres Mike]

Republicans also underperform at the governor level, even more so than at the senate.

Kentucky still has a lot of ancestorial democrats and has a competent state party. And I think Kentucky whites are far more moderate than their southern breathen.

[Vosem]

Kentucky is still much more Democratic downballot than it is presidentially; I don't think there's much mysterious about it. It also has a competent Democratic party that still runs decent candidates for positions, kind of like Montana. (As has already been pointed out in this thread, Republicans tend to do even worse in elections for Governor or Secretary of State).

But the truth is unadulterated free market capitalism is not anybody’s electoral priority but the rich

This is probably a main priority for ~~rounds to the entire Republican Party~~ and the right third of Democrats, but carry on; it is inconvenient for narratives. Voters routinely reject tax increases on the wealthy and rubber-stamp tax cuts for them, and there are heavy backlashes to unpopular welfare expansions while the reverse (backlashes to cuts in the United States) is extremely unusual.