2023 UK Local Elections

[YL]

Tories failed to win any seats in Sefton: the Lib Dems won four wards in Southport and Labour won everything else.

[Oryxslayer]

Torys finally held 1 ward, after 7 losses here.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1654321535794962433?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Tories lose North West Leicestershire to NOC, Labour now largest party after 8 flips.

Stoke-on-Trent has large Labour gains right now, but the pace of the count has delayed the flip result until just now. 

Bolton is slow, but Labour are gaining and on top right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Hertsmere(!) falls to NOC. 13 Losses to both Labour and the Lib-Dems, Labour almost the largest party. Seemed to be safe territory going in.

Bolton remains in NOC, but Labour are far and away the largest party with 26/60, very close to a majority. They have control either through a minority or Lib-Dem coalition. Localists actually did fine, it was just a Tory massacre.



Tories lose East Lindsey to NOC



Conservatives do however make gains in North Norfolk, which is really a legacy Lib-Dem council then a true stronghold these days.

[YL]

Lib Dem landslide in Bath & North East Somerset. They did very well here in 2019, taking control then, but have increased their majority. Tories went from 11 seats to 3.

[Oryxslayer]

Outgoing tory leader in Medway concedes, saying he expects to only win the 22 seats currently called for them, with Labour winning a majority of around 33 with a few indies mixed in on the rural peninsula.

[Blair]

V confused why I woke up to coverage suggesting Labour isn’t doing this well….

[Oryxslayer]

V confused why I woke up to coverage suggesting Labour isn’t doing this well….

I guess cause they are emphasizing council topline changes? Labour are winning the overall vote and making big gains in all the places they need to, but in many of these thirds councils like Dudley and Harlow Labour hit ceilings. Especially in Thurrock and Tamworth. Its no suprise the big toplines so far have every seat up: Stoke-on-Trent, Bolton, Medway, Hertsmere, also now Windsor.Tories are also losing ~1/3 of the seats that have declared, which if it holds means the 1K losses expectation setting number might come to pass, if you care about that.

On that point, North Lincolnshire. I warned the urban-rural polarization put a ceiling on Labour here, and it played out as expected. Labour are winning the Sculthorpe wards by more than enough to win the GE constituency, but the council has much more territory.

[Oryxslayer]

Boston delivering a unique result that shows just how the Tories are suffering even when there was no opposition.

[YL]

The Lib Dems, who took all three seats in Eton & Castle ward from the Tories, have been crowned in control of Windsor & Maidenhead council.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BNHWalker/status/1654371833649549314?s=20

Huge swings here off Lib-Dem targeting. 22 Lib-Dems elected which is a bare majority, but the opposition is now divided after 16 Tory losses.

[Torrain]

Media circuit has started - Ed Davey is bouncing around like an excitable cartoon character, and talking up tactical voting in 2024.

Tory Chairman Greg Hands is trying to spin that their worst-case scenario prediction (losing 1,000 seats) is an independent forecast, and seems to have locked himself into repeating Sunak's five pledges over and over again.

[TheTide]

Tories lose North West Leicestershire to NOC, Labour now largest party after 8 flips.

Stoke-on-Trent has large Labour gains right now, but the pace of the count has delayed the flip result until just now. 

Bolton is slow, but Labour are gaining and on top right now.

NW Leicestershire and Tamworth might be the best results from Labour's perspective so far.

[Logical]

Isn't it almost certain that the Tories will lose 1000 seats, perhaps even 1500?

[Torrain]

Conservatives lose control of South Gloucestershire - now No Overall Control.

[S019]

Can someone please explain why the Green Party has surged in East Herfordshire?

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives lose control of South Gloucestershire - now No Overall Control.

The math suggested this outcome, and unsurprisingly it's Labour making the gains, as suggested by the previous outcomes and lay of the battlegrounds. However, interestingly the opposition is tied 17-17 right now for control of the incoming coalition, and the last wards to declare might maintain that tie...

Can someone please explain why the Green Party has surged in East Herfordshire?

Thats another one which came out of the blue. I bet its some NIMBY thing, that's usually the amplifying reason. Or just the lack of opposition led to someone stepping into the vacuum. For example there's Indies surging all over Lincolnshire cause nobody else was there against the tories, except in West Lindsey where the Lib-Dems had a base to expand from.

[YL]

Conservatives lose control of South Gloucestershire - now No Overall Control.

The math suggested this outcome, and unsurprisingly it's Labour making the gains, as suggested by the previous outcomes and lay of the battlegrounds. However, interestingly the opposition is tied 17-17 right now for control of the incoming coalition, and the last wards to declare might maintain that tie...

Con 23 (-10), Lib Dem 20 (+3), Lab 17 (+6), Ind 1 (+1)

This actually could have been quite a bit worse for the Tories.  A lot of wards were very close and ended up with split representation; just a small further swing would have lost them most of those councillors.

[YL]

Tories failed to win any seats in Sefton: the Lib Dems won four wards in Southport and Labour won everything else.

Apparently this was the first time the Tories have ever failed to win a seat there.

[JimJamUK]

Labour have a won a stonking majority in Bolsover which was NOC in 2019. The independent vote was clearly partly NOTA and partly ‘closet Tory’ as they’ve collapse with the Tories largely competing with Labour for seats (they didn’t win many, but their vote share, especially combined, was semi-respectable).

[Torrain]

Labour have a won a stonking majority in Bolsover which was NOC in 2019. The independent vote was clearly partly NOTA and partly ‘closet Tory’ as they’ve collapse with the Tories largely competing with Labour for seats (they didn’t win many, but their vote share, especially combined, was semi-respectable).

You're not kidding! 31/37 is fantastic, especially after their ailes in the area in both 2019 elections.

[Blair]

Can someone please explain why the Green Party has surged in East Herfordshire?

The greens have been playing a v long game in these sorts of areas- they’re a natural protest vote and they can oppose various developments/changes with the ‘protect the hedges’ which is a very potent and powerful line in English politics- you run someone well know locally who is nice and friendly and you spend your time talking about the church hall and the ghastly new development rather than the issues you see ultra online Green activists talk about.


there are lots of people in these areas who would recoil at voting Labour but would happily vote Green- the crude stereotype is people who shop at Waitrose, who watch countryfile and are very concerned about the local river being polluted.

I don’t know East Hertfordshire but as I said a few pages back the greens will imv win their next parliamentary seat in one of these areas.

[JimJamUK]

Massive swing from Independent to Labour sees Labour take the mayoralty in Middlesbrough. Council majority flipping must be a foregone conclusion.

[YL]

Massive swing from Independent to Labour sees Labour take the mayoralty in Middlesbrough. Council majority flipping must be a foregone conclusion.

Labour almost certainly benefitted decisively there from the Government's decision to change the electoral system for these posts to FPTP.