Morning Consult: Trump +6 vs. field, DeSantis +1 H2H

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1605688176814628864

[DaleCooper]

This seems more accurate to me than any of the polls showing blowouts. Though I'm surprised that DeSantis isn't really that far behind with a crowded field.

[Sir Mohamed]

This seems more accurate to me than any of the polls showing blowouts. Though I'm surprised that DeSantis isn't really that far behind with a crowded field.

I guess that's because most Republicans that have enough of Trump or are tired of losing with him flock to DeSantis, seeing him as only viable option to deny Trump the nomination. That's a difference to 2016, when there was no single candidate seen as clear alternative after Jeb! just went down in flames.

[Alben Barkley]

This seems more accurate to me than any of the polls showing blowouts. Though I'm surprised that DeSantis isn't really that far behind with a crowded field.

I guess that's because most Republicans that have enough of Trump or are tired of losing with him flock to DeSantis, seeing him as only viable option to deny Trump the nomination. That's a difference to 2016, when there was no single candidate seen as clear alternative after Jeb! just went down in flames.

If the GOP was sane, they would have just rallied around Kasich. Still a solid conservative yet one with strong appeal to the Midwest and independent voters. He would have easily won. But he said something vaguely nice about gay people or something once, so he was persona non grata to the base.

[Medal506]

This seems more accurate to me than any of the polls showing blowouts. Though I'm surprised that DeSantis isn't really that far behind with a crowded field.

I guess that's because most Republicans that have enough of Trump or are tired of losing with him flock to DeSantis, seeing him as only viable option to deny Trump the nomination. That's a difference to 2016, when there was no single candidate seen as clear alternative after Jeb! just went down in flames.

If the GOP was sane, they would have just rallied around Kasich. Still a solid conservative yet one with strong appeal to the Midwest and independent voters. He would have easily won. But he said something vaguely nice about gay people or something once, so he was persona non grata to the base.

Kasich? Nah if they were sane they would have elected Santorum in 2012

[OSR stands with Israel]

This seems more accurate to me than any of the polls showing blowouts. Though I'm surprised that DeSantis isn't really that far behind with a crowded field.

Its because unlike the non Trump candidates from 2016, DeSantis actually utterly destroys the rest of the field. Polls without Trump have DeSantis winning by 50+ points over the rest of the field while the non Trump candidates in 2016 struggled to get to even 25% in the polls against the rest of the field.

So this is why this comparison isn't great, as the reason the GOP field was unable to consolidate in 2016 was because none of the candidates were strong enough to cause such a consolidation. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

This seems more accurate to me than any of the polls showing blowouts. Though I'm surprised that DeSantis isn't really that far behind with a crowded field.

I guess that's because most Republicans that have enough of Trump or are tired of losing with him flock to DeSantis, seeing him as only viable option to deny Trump the nomination. That's a difference to 2016, when there was no single candidate seen as clear alternative after Jeb! just went down in flames.

If the GOP was sane, they would have just rallied around Kasich. Still a solid conservative yet one with strong appeal to the Midwest and independent voters. He would have easily won. But he said something vaguely nice about gay people or something once, so he was persona non grata to the base.

Btw the reason Kasich was disliked by the base had more to do with the fact that he accepted Obamacare into his state and being viewed at anything but anti Obamacare was gonna get you destroyed by the base from 2010-2016.  Remember Romney had to renounce his own healthcare plan to get the nomination in 2012 despite that GOP field being utterly atrocious in candidate quality .

Kasich unlike Romney even refused to apologize for it and would say when asked about it : "He would rather tell god that he did stuff for the poor than follow the party line".


https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/06/kasich-cites-faith-to-defend-his-health-care-position-other-programs-for-the-poor/436701/

"If you're mentally ill, we're not locking you up in prison. If we can avoid it, we want to treat you. We want you to be on your feet to live your God-given purpose. I've been criticized for this, by the way. I've been criticized for this," Kasich said.

"The drug addicted? They can be in your family," he said. "Get them treated and get them on their feet to live their God-given purpose. The working poor? We want you to get decent health care. And guess what, we don't want you to be poor, we want you to graduate from the poor. You're minority? We're going to include you, and we're going to lift you. If you have a son or a daughter who's autistic, you're going to get insurance. We're not going to bankrupt you."

Btw Kasich ran as an economic moderate too and that made him disliked by much of the GOP donors too