India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/chandigarh-news/found-bulletproof-jackets-guns-amritpal-tried-to-form-militia-akf-punjab-police-101679305156956.html

"Found bulletproof jackets, guns; Amritpal tried to form militia 'AKF': Punjab Police"

Punjab police claim that fugitive radical Khalistan leader Amritpal Singh was trying to build his own private army.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/waris-punjab-de-amritpal-singh-associates-detained-punjab-8504755/

"Waris Punjab De head Amritpal Singh untraceable, supporters allege police crackdown"

It looks like there is a Punjab police operation to crack down on radical Khalistan leader  Amritpal Singh with the internet being down in parts of Punjab.   It seems Amritpal Singh is on the run to evade the Punjab police.

This is funny because over in Pakistan Punjab, there seems to be a police action on the same day to arrest former Pakistan PM Imran Khan.

I wonder which Punjab police will win the race to capture their man.

So looking back both Punjab police departments are a swing and a miss in capturing their man.

Former PM Imran Khan is safely in his home and Amritpal Singh is still on the run.  Internet in India Punjab still down.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pics-cops-suspect-amritpal-singh-changed-appearance-share-many-looks-3880914

"Pics: Cops Suspect Amritpal Singh Changed Appearance, Share Many Looks"

Amritpal Singh is still on the run.  Punjab police released possible disguises he might be using



The iron law of Indian politics is that if things go wrong then eventually they are going to blame Pakistan.  There is now talk that perhaps Amritpal Singh is being helped by Pakistan's ISI in his attempt to evade the police.  Given how close the village Amritpal Singh lives in is to Pakistan there is a real chance he could have escaped to Pakistan already, with or without help of ISI.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/rahul-gandhi-faces-lok-sabha-disqualification-risk-over-2-year-sentence-in-defamation-case-490644

"Rahul Gandhi faces Lok Sabha disqualification risk over 2-year sentence in defamation case"

Rahul Gandhi was found guilty and given a 2-year jail sentence over a 2019 criminal defamation case which involved him saying "How come all thieves have surname Modi" over allegations of corruption in the Modi government. 

Rahul Gandhi will appeal but if he does not win he could lose his LS seats.  Overall this is not good news for BJP.  Modi and the BJP are set to win with ease in 2024 with Rahul Gandhi as the face of INC and other anti-BJP parties trying to form a third front.  Any change in the dynamics is merely risk for the BJP in an election they are set to win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/rahul-gandhi-faces-lok-sabha-disqualification-risk-over-2-year-sentence-in-defamation-case-490644

"Rahul Gandhi faces Lok Sabha disqualification risk over 2-year sentence in defamation case"

Rahul Gandhi was found guilty and given a 2-year jail sentence over a 2019 criminal defamation case which involved him saying "How come all thieves have surname Modi" over allegations of corruption in the Modi government. 

Rahul Gandhi will appeal but if he does not win he could lose his LS seats.  Overall this is not good news for BJP.  Modi and the BJP are set to win with ease in 2024 with Rahul Gandhi as the face of INC and other anti-BJP parties trying to form a third front.  Any change in the dynamics is merely risk for the BJP in an election they are set to win.

Is there a risk such a defamation case ending this way could create sympathy for Rahul and INC?

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/rahul-gandhi-faces-lok-sabha-disqualification-risk-over-2-year-sentence-in-defamation-case-490644

"Rahul Gandhi faces Lok Sabha disqualification risk over 2-year sentence in defamation case"

Rahul Gandhi was found guilty and given a 2-year jail sentence over a 2019 criminal defamation case which involved him saying "How come all thieves have surname Modi" over allegations of corruption in the Modi government. 

Rahul Gandhi will appeal but if he does not win he could lose his LS seats.  Overall this is not good news for BJP.  Modi and the BJP are set to win with ease in 2024 with Rahul Gandhi as the face of INC and other anti-BJP parties trying to form a third front.  Any change in the dynamics is merely risk for the BJP in an election they are set to win.

Is there a risk such a defamation case ending this way could create sympathy for Rahul and INC?

Correct.  Of course Rahul Gandhi has to play his hand carefully as well.  Namely

a) Rahul Gandhi should consider resigning and running for his seat in a by-election.  Back in 2013 Rahul Gandhi had a run in with INC PM Singh over the issue of ministers and MPs that were convicted and the need for them to resign ASAP.  If Rahul Gandhi is seen to be hypocritical relative to his 2013 position it is not good for him

b) There are already reports of this news in collective West MSM mostly in sympathetic tone.  Rahul Gandhi has to disassociate himself from this coverage.  Being viewed as the favorite of the collective West MSM (especially BBC and CNN) is the kiss of death in the Hindi heartland.  BJP's main weapon against Rahul Gandhi and INC is one of nationalism and Rahul Gandhi must not fall into that BJP trap.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/woman-who-sheltered-amritpal-singh-in-kurukshetra-arrested-cops-3886488

"Woman Who Sheltered Amritpal Singh In Kurukshetra Arrested: Cops"

Looks like Amritpal Singh has managed to escape to Kurukshetra in Haryana.  It seems he is moving away from the Pakistan border.  I still think his plan is somehow to escape to Pakistan.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/rahul-gandhi-faces-lok-sabha-disqualification-risk-over-2-year-sentence-in-defamation-case-490644

"Rahul Gandhi faces Lok Sabha disqualification risk over 2-year sentence in defamation case"

Rahul Gandhi was found guilty and given a 2-year jail sentence over a 2019 criminal defamation case which involved him saying "How come all thieves have surname Modi" over allegations of corruption in the Modi government. 

Rahul Gandhi will appeal but if he does not win he could lose his LS seats.  Overall this is not good news for BJP.  Modi and the BJP are set to win with ease in 2024 with Rahul Gandhi as the face of INC and other anti-BJP parties trying to form a third front.  Any change in the dynamics is merely risk for the BJP in an election they are set to win.

Why are such laws even considered constitutional In India

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi disqualified as lawmaker by LS over conviction

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/rahul-gandhi-faces-lok-sabha-disqualification-risk-over-2-year-sentence-in-defamation-case-490644

"Rahul Gandhi faces Lok Sabha disqualification risk over 2-year sentence in defamation case"

Rahul Gandhi was found guilty and given a 2-year jail sentence over a 2019 criminal defamation case which involved him saying "How come all thieves have surname Modi" over allegations of corruption in the Modi government. 

Rahul Gandhi will appeal but if he does not win he could lose his LS seats.  Overall this is not good news for BJP.  Modi and the BJP are set to win with ease in 2024 with Rahul Gandhi as the face of INC and other anti-BJP parties trying to form a third front.  Any change in the dynamics is merely risk for the BJP in an election they are set to win.

Why are such laws even considered constitutional In India

They are.  There are two types of defamation in India: civil and criminal.

In many ways, the threshold for criminal is lower than civil.  Namely, for criminal defamation, you must prove intent to defame.  On the other hand, the truth (unless it is for the public good) does not protect you from criminal defamation but it does protect you from civil defamation.

In this case, Rahul Gandhi implied "all criminals are Modi" but not "all Modi are criminals"  A Gujarat BJP MLA also called Modi sued Rahul Gandhi on criminal defamation on the basis that even "all criminals are Modi" implied that being a criminal is a unique profession to Modi and defamed him even though it was clear that Rahul Gandhi's target was PM Modi.

What makes this case really fishy is the fact that the Gujarat court was able to "determine" Rahul Gandhi's true motivations (which only he really knows). 

Anyway, I think this might work to the advantage of Rahul Gandhi and INC as long as he does not align himself with collective West MSM (especially Anglosphere MSM like BBC and CNN.)  They are going to have headlines such as "... we are concerned about democratic backsliding in India... " and "... the turn toward authoritarianism in India under Modi is a concern ..."  All those Anglosphere  MSM platitudes will sound like lecturing from the broad Hindu belt Indian point of view and if Rahul Gandhi is viewed as being as aligned with that then INC is doomed in 2024 in the Hindi heartland.

If I were Rahul Gandhi I will not appear on any English-language TV channel (Indian or foreign) about this and only appear on Hindi media to complain.  His complaint should not be anything about "democracy" "freedoms" etc (because that would make him sound like he is in league with BBC and CNN) but the pettiness of this BJP MLA to get in the way of him working toward a strong India.

[jaichind]

The immediate disqualification of Rahul Gandhi actually fits with the principles that he exposed when he had a collision with INC PM Singh back in 2013.  In 2013 the Indian SC overturned a law that seems to allow for a de facto indefinite stay of disqualification on the conviction of a MP.   INC PM Singh then pushed an ordinance that adds some short time period before such disqualification comes into effect to give time for the MP in question to appeal and perhaps get a stay on his/her conviction.  Rahul Gandhi was very much opposed to this and publically attacked INC PM Singh on this issue.  This move crushed INC morale and along with many other things set the stage for the landslide defeat of INC in the 2014 LS elections.    Now Rahul Gandhi is getting exactly what he fought for back in 2013.  He is disqualified as a MP ASAP without any time for him to appeal for a stay on his conviction.

[Angel of Death]

These authoritarians are all taking pages out of each other's books, aren't they? This is pretty much the same thing that was done to Ekrem İmamoğlu in Turkey.

[jaichind]

ABP Matrize 2024 LS poll for UP

Monster landslide for BJP based on SP+, BSP, and INC splitting the anti-BJP vote

BJP+     67-73
SP+        3-6
BSP        0-4
INC         1-2

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/separatist-amritpal-singh-on-the-run-from-cops-likely-hiding-in-delhi-sources-3891069

"Separatist Amritpal Singh, On The Run From Cops, Likely Hiding In Delhi: Sources"

Amritpal Singh is still on the run.  The latest rumor is that he is most likely in Delhi.  There are a lot of Sikhs in Haryana and Delhi so it would make sense for him to hide out in those areas without looking out of place.

[OSR stands with Israel]

These authoritarians are all taking pages out of each other's books, aren't they? This is pretty much the same thing that was done to Ekrem İmamoğlu in Turkey.

Well given what Jaichind posted , it seems like Rahul Gandhi opposed repealing this law or even allowing mp’s to sit in parliament through the appeals process . So it does seem like it’s unfortunately  bipartisan in India to believe that criminal defamation should be a thing or as loose as it currently is .

Still though I think the President of India should blanket pardon anyone who was convicted of this law cause this law is bs and the pardon power should be used to undermine it .

Lastly I don’t think this was really done for political reasons cause it would make zero sense for it to be done . The Gandhi Family controlling the INC effectively means the BJP has nothing but token opposition but if they were disqualified, then a non Gandhi Family figure could rise and then the BJP would be far far more vulnerable. So I think this is more due to a moronic law which I hope either gets repealed or the president issued blanket pardons for .

 

[jaichind]

These authoritarians are all taking pages out of each other's books, aren't they? This is pretty much the same thing that was done to Ekrem İmamoğlu in Turkey.

I am fine with this statement as long as you will also apply it in the case of Trump if and when he faces an indictment and lump the USA into the mix as you have above.

[jaichind]

The  ABP News-Matrize UP poll also has BJP with a landslide victory for BJP for the UP assembly election (which to be fair is not until 2027)



The same poll had approval/disapproval of Rahul Gandhi's disqualification at 43/22

The main danger for SP in this poll is that a significant number of voters view SP as the party Muslims favor.  The way out for SP to avoid this BJP landslide is to pursue an anti-BJP consolidation behind SP.  While that will work the poll shows that the BJP will pursue an anti-Muslim anti-SP counter-consolidation behind BJP.

[jaichind]

This entire Rahul Gandhi affair is good news for INC but also good news for BJP.  The main losers are the non-INC aligned anti-BJP parties (SP AITC AAP BRS etc etc.)  This affair shifts focus and builds up the brand of  Rahul Gandhi which will be useful for INC to project itself as the alternative to the BJP.  The good news for the BJP is that they know they can beat Rahul Gandhi/INC.  There is a risk that the BJP might lose ground relative to 2019 to Rahul Gandhi/INC but there is a clear floor for BJP on how much ground they can lose to  Rahul Gandhi/INC. 

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/officials-divided-over-amritpals-whereabouts-some-believe-he-was-still-in-punjab-while-others-say-he-was-spotted-in-up-district-in-close-proximity-with-nepal-border-491466

"Police, intel agencies divided over pro-Khalistan activist Amritpal’s whereabouts"

Parts of the Indian intelligence agencies think  Amritpal Singh is still in Punjab while others think he is in UP and getting close to the Nepal border.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/west-bengal-bjp-wants-left-parties-in-its-mahajyot-to-defeat-trinamool-congress/article66660673.ece

"West Bengal BJP wants Left parties in its mahajyot to defeat Trinamool Congress"

Now WB BJP wants to form a grand alliance with Left Front  (and implicitly I assume INC) to take on AITC.  Back in the late 1990s during the era of Left Front domination of WB, the BJP was pushing for a grand alliance of BJP AITC and INC to take on Left Front which AITC was for but INC rejected.  AITC shifted between INC and BJP during the 1998-2011 period as the better partner to take on Left Front.

[jaichind]

https://news.abplive.com/states/abp-news-matrize-opinion-poll-2023-survey-congress-likely-to-repeat-government-chhattisgarh-bjp-bhupesh-baghel-rahul-gandhi-vote-share-assembly-elections-2023-1591224

"ABP News-Matrize Opinion Poll: Check What Survey Says About Congress's Chances In Chattisgarh Elections"

ABP-Matrize poll for Chattisgarh

           Seat      Vote share
INC       50            44%
BJP       37            43%
Others    3            13%

At this stage of the election cycle and given the infighting in INC I read this poll as a slight edge for BJP.

[jaichind]

Karnataka TV poll for Karnataka

BJP        107
INC         75
JD(S)      35
Others      6


This poll looks very fishy.  I am skeptical that JD(S) can win 35 seats.  Also, I have no idea where the 6 seats for Others come from.

[Angel of Death]

These authoritarians are all taking pages out of each other's books, aren't they? This is pretty much the same thing that was done to Ekrem İmamoğlu in Turkey.

I am fine with this statement as long as you will also apply it in the case of Trump if and when he faces an indictment and lump the USA into the mix as you have above.

I would equally oppose it if something as flimsy like an (abstract) insult were to be used as a pretext to disqualify Trump from seeking election, but that's not the kind of thing we're talking about in his case, now is it? If those actually in power abuse their position, they should, if anything, be held to a higher, not lower standard, just like with Park Geun-hye (sans pardon).

[jaichind]

These authoritarians are all taking pages out of each other's books, aren't they? This is pretty much the same thing that was done to Ekrem İmamoğlu in Turkey.

I am fine with this statement as long as you will also apply it in the case of Trump if and when he faces an indictment and lump the USA into the mix as you have above.

I would equally oppose it if something as flimsy like an (abstract) insult were to be used as a pretext to disqualify Trump from seeking election, but that's not the kind of thing we're talking about in his case, now is it? If those actually in power abuse their position, they should, if anything, be held to a higher, not lower standard, just like with Park Geun-hye (sans pardon).

Just to be clear, while the court's logic is fishy criminal defamation is a legitimate law in India and not flimsy in the Indian legal context.  Indians can also assert that a payoff to a porn star and some bookkeeping issues are flimsy from their point of view.  Anyway, in reality, Rahul Gandhi will appeal and if the appeal process leads to the conviction being suspended or stayed then Rahul Gandhi can clearly run in 2024.  Even if his conviction is upheld if the sentence is reduced to lower than 2 years then Rahul Gandhi can still run in 2024.

[jaichind]

Rahul Gandhi changes his Twitter handle to "Dis'Qualified MP"