Rudy endorsements are beginning to worry me...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Giuliani would definitely beat Hillary pretty good probably something like 330-340 range

if the present trajectory continues, it will be Hillary who is in the 330-340 range.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum's problems are relevant if he decides to endorse anyone since, at this point in time, a Santorum endorsement probably hurts more than it helps.

Santorum's endorsement will get hardly any attention. I'd love to be wrong because it would be great to see him back in the news     unless he was supporting Rudy.

[Reignman]

Is it me or does it seem that McCain is moving very slowly and Rudy is picking up a lot of conservative endorsements?

Yup. McCain was the frontrunner, but now Rudy is.

[Sam Spade]

jmfcst:  Brownback = loser.  Have you ever watched him speak?  He's probably worse than your pastor. 

Just my two words of advice for Republicans right now:  If conditions stay as they are right now in the US and I see no reason why they won't; that being simply godawful for Republicans, the only person who has better than a 50-50 shot of winning the Presidency is Rudy.

McCain doesn't have the temperament to be President and presently is and will slowly start to lose his appeal to moderate, swing voters.  Besides, many base Republicans do not trust him.  I don't think Romney can overcome the Mormon thing and his direct flip-flopping on issues, though the book is still out on him, somewhat.

This is the reason why Nickshepdem is correct that Rudy will most likely win the nomination.  Republicans have nominated the candidate most likely to win in ever election that I can remember since 1964.  Even in 1996, out of all the Republican candidates who ran, Dole stood the best shot of winning (kinda scary)

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

jmfcst:  Brownback = loser.  Have you ever watched him speak?  He's probably worse than your pastor. 

No, I've never heard Brownback speak.  Is he that bad?

But my pastor did see Rudy speak in Houston a year or two back.  He said the Rudy was extremely warm and was thoroughly impressed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The great thing about Rudy getting the Republican nomination is that you'd be able attack him from all sorts of different angles. The only thing he has going for him is that, unlike Bush, he did not flee the eastern time zone on 9/11. Whatever.

[Mr. Morden]

Republicans have nominated the candidate most likely to win in ever election that I can remember since 1964.  Even in 1996, out of all the Republican candidates who ran, Dole stood the best shot of winning (kinda scary)

You really think that McCain would have been a worse general election candidate in '00 than Bush?

[Mr. Morden]

Speaking of endorsements, Romney now has 23 congressional endorsements, which is probably more than either Giuliani or McCain have:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/02/feb_27_romneys.html

The GOP establishment is not lining up behind any one candidate in droves (as it did behind Bush 8 years ago).  It's splitting every which way, but primarily behind Giuliani, McCain, and Romney.

[Sam Spade]

Republicans have nominated the candidate most likely to win in ever election that I can remember since 1964.  Even in 1996, out of all the Republican candidates who ran, Dole stood the best shot of winning (kinda scary)

You really think that McCain would have been a worse general election candidate in '00 than Bush?

Gore was a terrible candidate, but had good momentum behind him.  Besides, I feel pretty confident that McCain would have turned out as bad as GOTV effort as Bush did.

So that leaves the states up for grabs.  McCain would have done, obviously, worse in the South, better along the coasts and upper Midwest.

My gut tells me that McCain doesn't win WV or TN, probably not AR either.  That was a social conservative win for Bush in dangerous territory at that time, which McCain wouldn't have done. (-22 max)

My gut tells me McCain would probably win OR, IA, WI and might pick off MN and the 2nd CD in ME (+36 max), but that Democratic GOTV effort that year was ridiculously good and this may not happen.

But this still leaves us with the same problem:  Florida controls the election.  Personally, I doubt McCain performs as well in FL as Bush did, and there you have it. 

[Inmate Trump]

Phil, I can give you every reason to vote for Rudy in the primary with one question.

Do you want Hillary Clinton or Barack Hussein Obama to be your next president?

There, that's all the reason you need. 

If he was the nominee running against either of those two, he'd have my support.

As it stands right at this moment, though, it's going to be Obama or Hillary for the Democrats.  Can you really see McCain, or Brownback, or Gingrich or any of the other Republicans beating these two?  The only exception is Rudy Giuliani, who could win easily against either of them.  My point was that unless you want a President Hillary or a President Obama, you should begin now to support Giuliani so that there's no question the only winning candidate the Republicans have this election cycle gets their nomination.  It shouldn't be something that you wait to support him after the fact; that's what I was trying to say.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, I can give you every reason to vote for Rudy in the primary with one question.

Do you want Hillary Clinton or Barack Hussein Obama to be your next president?

There, that's all the reason you need. 

If he was the nominee running against either of those two, he'd have my support.

As it stands right at this moment, though, it's going to be Obama or Hillary for the Democrats.  Can you really see McCain, or Brownback, or Gingrich or any of the other Republicans beating these two?

Brownback and Gingrich won't get it. Gingrich most likely isn't even running. McCain would beat both Hillary and Obama.

 

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I know what you were saying. I disagree with it and refuse to operate under the, "Get behind the real, guarenteed winner now before it's too late!"

 

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It really makes no difference if I support him now or after he wins the nomination...which I still don't think will happen...

[Inmate Trump]

It really makes no difference if I support him now or after he wins the nomination...which I still don't think will happen...

But you also don't think Obama or Hillary would win against McCain.  See?  Something's off. 

[Reaganfan]

It really makes no difference if I support him now or after he wins the nomination...which I still don't think will happen...

But you also don't think Obama or Hillary would win against McCain.  See?  Something's off. 

I honestly don't think they would beat McCain either. McCain would get the Republican votes (without swing states of OH, PA, IA, WI McCain would be at 267 EV already) and would grab a large portion of independents and democrats.

[Smash255]

It really makes no difference if I support him now or after he wins the nomination...which I still don't think will happen...

But you also don't think Obama or Hillary would win against McCain.  See?  Something's off. 

I honestly don't think they would beat McCain either. McCain would get the Republican votes (without swing states of OH, PA, IA, WI McCain would be at 267 EV already) and would grab a large portion of independents and democrats.

In the past?  Yes.  Now no.  Iraq is a MAJOR issue, and McCain is on the wrong side of the American public on Iraq.

[bullmoose88]

It really makes no difference if I support him now or after he wins the nomination...which I still don't think will happen...

But you also don't think Obama or Hillary would win against McCain.  See?  Something's off. 

I honestly don't think they would beat McCain either. McCain would get the Republican votes (without swing states of OH, PA, IA, WI McCain would be at 267 EV already) and would grab a large portion of independents and democrats.

In the past?  Yes.  Now no.  Iraq is a MAJOR issue, and McCain is on the wrong side of the American public on Iraq.

True...but one has to consider the possibility that Iraq may substantially improve within a year.

Its not likely, but if it does, if only for a short while, McCain would benefit immensely.

[Mr. Morden]

True...but one has to consider the possibility that Iraq may substantially improve within a year.

Or (more likely IMHO) that American involvement in Iraq will decrease substantially by Nov. '08, and so Americans will no longer care that much about what happens in Iraq.  Bush could end up withdrawing a significant number of troops by then.  In fact, he might have to, if Murtha succeeds in attaching conditions to the war funding that Bush won't accept.  What happens then?

I just think way too many people on this forum are reading too much into the political trends of the last year, assuming that everything is going to continue in that direction in a straight line.  We have no idea what's going to happen a year and a half from now.  You can't predict a presidential election a year and a half in advance.  That's not to say that every candidate has an equal shot.  There are some who would certainly be favored over others.  But saying that you can predict with absolute certainty how every single potential matchup would play out is foolhardy.

[Reaganfan]

True...but one has to consider the possibility that Iraq may substantially improve within a year.

Or (more likely IMHO) that American involvement in Iraq will decrease substantially by Nov. '08, and so Americans will no longer care that much about what happens in Iraq.  Bush could end up withdrawing a significant number of troops by then.  In fact, he might have to, if Murtha succeeds in attaching conditions to the war funding that Bush won't accept.  What happens then?

I just think way too many people on this forum are reading too much into the political trends of the last year, assuming that everything is going to continue in that direction in a straight line.  We have no idea what's going to happen a year and a half from now.  You can't predict a presidential election a year and a half in advance.  That's not to say that every candidate has an equal shot.  There are some who would certainly be favored over others.  But saying that you can predict with absolute certainty how every single potential matchup would play out is foolhardy.

The War on Terror is not just Iraq...it's a large, long war. If the planned 8/16/06 attacks had occured...the world would be very different today. You can't predict future events when a single day could alter the international mindset.

[Smash255]

It really makes no difference if I support him now or after he wins the nomination...which I still don't think will happen...

But you also don't think Obama or Hillary would win against McCain.  See?  Something's off. 

I honestly don't think they would beat McCain either. McCain would get the Republican votes (without swing states of OH, PA, IA, WI McCain would be at 267 EV already) and would grab a large portion of independents and democrats.

In the past?  Yes.  Now no.  Iraq is a MAJOR issue, and McCain is on the wrong side of the American public on Iraq.

True...but one has to consider the possibility that Iraq may substantially improve within a year.

Its not likely, but if it does, if only for a short while, McCain would benefit immensely.

I have a better chance of winning the Lotto than that

[Sam Spade]

It really makes no difference if I support him now or after he wins the nomination...which I still don't think will happen...

But you also don't think Obama or Hillary would win against McCain.  See?  Something's off. 

I honestly don't think they would beat McCain either. McCain would get the Republican votes (without swing states of OH, PA, IA, WI McCain would be at 267 EV already) and would grab a large portion of independents and democrats.

In the past?  Yes.  Now no.  Iraq is a MAJOR issue, and McCain is on the wrong side of the American public on Iraq.

True...but one has to consider the possibility that Iraq may substantially improve within a year.

Its not likely, but if it does, if only for a short while, McCain would benefit immensely.

If Iraq improves, Republicans would benefit immensely, not necessarily McCain and his Presidential aspirations, imho.

I doubt it happens, anyway, but events like that are hard to control.  In many ways, I prefer Presidential primaries where all but one of the consequential candidates and I can pretty much already tell you what's going to happen. 

[HardRCafé]

Rudy's my second choice under Huckabee. As a social conservative, Rudy's stances do worry me a bit, but I am willing to sacrifice those for national security, which I think will Rudy's greatest strength if he is the nominee

Same here.  Giuliani is spreading like wildfire, however, whereas hardly anyone got the memo Huckabee announced.

They might make a nice ticket together.

[agcatter]

I'm a social conservative.  Rudi has said he will appoint strict constructionists to the Bench.  Hillary will not.  It's a no brainer to me.

I see no percentage in nominating McCain or any other Republican that will lose to the ice queen.  President Hillary with a Democratic Congress.  Think about that one Keystone and let that soak in real good.

[Democratic Hawk]

As to whether Rudy gets the GOP nomination depends on the extent to which he can successfully woo (or deceive) social conservatives. Issues like abortion, gay marriage and guns matter immensely to them - and Rudy is on the wrong side of those issues despite stating he'd appoint strict constructionists to the bench. He's just trying to cover his back

As to whether he'll so brazenly flip-flop to the extent Mitt Romney has, I don't know, but if he does, then as with Romney, his sincerity seriously needs calling into question

Giuliani could always stay true to his long-held convictions and hope enough socially moderate Republicans and cross-over voters can rally behind his candidacy and see him through. Of course, given the 'winner takes all' nature of the Republican primaries, he only needs to carry a plurality, so a Giuliani nomination is plausible

Still, Giuliani is vulnerable on a number of fronts but then, who isn't? Either way, as the primary campaign progresses, conservatives will decide for themselves about Giuliani. Will he fool them or will they see through him?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm a social conservative.  Rudi has said he will appoint strict constructionists to the Bench.  Hillary will not.  It's a no brainer to me.

I see no percentage in nominating McCain or any other Republican that will lose to the ice queen.  President Hillary with a Democratic Congress.  Think about that one Keystone and let that soak in real good.

You seem rather convinced that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee

Dave

[agcatter]

I'm absolutely certain of it.

[JSojourner]

I see no percentage in nominating McCain or any other Republican that will lose to the ice queen. 

The ice queen?

Is Barbara Bush running?  I wouldn't want her to trouble her "beautiful mind".