Scandal in the Wind 2023. George Santos gets Sashayed

[Pres Mike]

He is innocent until proven guilty, we shouldn't be expelling people without due process.

They aren't even trying to expel him for his legal crimes. Like fruad, writing bad checks, stealing campaign money, etc.

They want to expel him because he is a clown who lied about...

-His mom dying on 9/11
-His grandmother being a holocaust victim
-Being Jewish
-Going to a prestigious high school he NEVER went to. In reality he barely got his GED
-He was a star vollyball player Baruch college. He never went to ANY college
-Starting an animal charity
-About being the first gay republican married to a man. He NEVER married a man. Only a woman
-Claimed he was an extra on the children's show "Hanna Montana"
-Had friends who died at Pulse
-Not being a drag queen

Like, how are folks on this forum defending this guy? There is no doubt in my mind that if Republicans had a larger minority he would have been expelled months ago. 78% of people in his district want him gone

Lying is not a crime.

He is out!

[Pres Mike]

He is innocent until proven guilty, we shouldn't be expelling people without due process.

Do you think he should not have been expelled?

[°Leprechaun]

The majority of Republicans didn't want to lose a House seat.
Perhaps that is why they voted the way that they did, but who really knows.

[Sir Mohamed]

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

“Homophobic house republicans vote to expel only gay member”

[oldtimer]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

[Tekken_Guy]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

Biden only won it by 8. And a Gerrymander might not happen or even be as strong as the Hochulmander was.

[oldtimer]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

Biden only won it by 8. And a Gerrymander might not happen or even be as strong as the Hochulmander was.

The average overperformance of Democrats is 10 points, that gives them even odds they win it by 18.

It's why Democrats wanted to get rid of Santos with a Special Election.

[Roll Roons]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

Biden only won it by 8. And a Gerrymander might not happen or even be as strong as the Hochulmander was.

The average overperformance of Democrats is 10 points, that gives them even odds they win it by 18.

It's why Democrats wanted to get rid of Santos with a Special Election.

Democratic overperformance is not universal. Pretty much without exception, Nassau (and Suffolk) Democrats have done horribly since Biden took office.

[oldtimer]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

Biden only won it by 8. And a Gerrymander might not happen or even be as strong as the Hochulmander was.

The average overperformance of Democrats is 10 points, that gives them even odds they win it by 18.

It's why Democrats wanted to get rid of Santos with a Special Election.

Democratic overperformance is not universal. Pretty much without exception, Nassau (and Suffolk) Democrats have done horribly since Biden took office.

This will be an obscure special on a random Tuesday, not a presidential or even midterm electorate.

By New York standards turnout will probably be lower than 20%.

[Roll Roons]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

Biden only won it by 8. And a Gerrymander might not happen or even be as strong as the Hochulmander was.

The average overperformance of Democrats is 10 points, that gives them even odds they win it by 18.

It's why Democrats wanted to get rid of Santos with a Special Election.

Democratic overperformance is not universal. Pretty much without exception, Nassau (and Suffolk) Democrats have done horribly since Biden took office.

This will be an obscure special on a random Tuesday, not a presidential or even midterm electorate.

It won't be "obscure". In fact, it will almost certainly get a lot of media coverage. As far as turnout goes, 2021 and 2023 had just county and municipal offices on the ballot. There were no statewide, legislative or congressional races on the ballot and there were no major initiative or referendum in either year. The turnout in this race will at least match, and probably exceed, that in the odd years.

[oldtimer]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

Biden only won it by 8. And a Gerrymander might not happen or even be as strong as the Hochulmander was.

The average overperformance of Democrats is 10 points, that gives them even odds they win it by 18.

It's why Democrats wanted to get rid of Santos with a Special Election.

Democratic overperformance is not universal. Pretty much without exception, Nassau (and Suffolk) Democrats have done horribly since Biden took office.

This will be an obscure special on a random Tuesday, not a presidential or even midterm electorate.

It won't be "obscure". In fact, it will almost certainly get a lot of media coverage. As far as turnout goes, 2021 and 2023 had just county and municipal offices on the ballot. There were no statewide, legislative or congressional races on the ballot and there were no major initiative or referendum in either year. The turnout in this race will at least match, and probably exceed, that in the odd years.

Ok which day is the special ? Don't cheat by searching it on the internet.

[Roll Roons]

Suozzi might be slightly favored initially, but he definitely should not take it for granted. I think the Republican trend on Long Island is very real and not just a byproduct of Zeldin's strong campaign/home region effect.

Any Democrat would beat any Republican in a special election in that seat by 20 points.

I don't think Republicans would ever win it again for another 10-15 years given that Democrats will gerrymander it hard.

Biden only won it by 8. And a Gerrymander might not happen or even be as strong as the Hochulmander was.

The average overperformance of Democrats is 10 points, that gives them even odds they win it by 18.

It's why Democrats wanted to get rid of Santos with a Special Election.

Democratic overperformance is not universal. Pretty much without exception, Nassau (and Suffolk) Democrats have done horribly since Biden took office.

This will be an obscure special on a random Tuesday, not a presidential or even midterm electorate.

It won't be "obscure". In fact, it will almost certainly get a lot of media coverage. As far as turnout goes, 2021 and 2023 had just county and municipal offices on the ballot. There were no statewide, legislative or congressional races on the ballot and there were no major initiative or referendum in either year. The turnout in this race will at least match, and probably exceed, that in the odd years.

Ok which day is the special ? Don't cheat by searching it on the internet.

It hasn’t been scheduled yet, but sometime in February.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would say that this ruined Santos' Christmas, but is it possible to be miserable during the holiday season when you're rolling in royalty checks as the writer of both the Charlie Brown Christmas special and Mariah Carey's "All I Want for Christmas is You?"

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

He is innocent until proven guilty, we shouldn't be expelling people without due process.

They aren't even trying to expel him for his legal crimes. Like fruad, writing bad checks, stealing campaign money, etc.

They want to expel him because he is a clown who lied about...

-His mom dying on 9/11
-His grandmother being a holocaust victim
-Being Jewish
-Going to a prestigious high school he NEVER went to. In reality he barely got his GED
-He was a star vollyball player Baruch college. He never went to ANY college
-Starting an animal charity
-About being the first gay republican married to a man. He NEVER married a man. Only a woman
-Claimed he was an extra on the children's show "Hanna Montana"
-Had friends who died at Pulse
-Not being a drag queen

Like, how are folks on this forum defending this guy? There is no doubt in my mind that if Republicans had a larger minority he would have been expelled months ago. 78% of people in his district want him gone

If Santos deserves to be expelled because he lied, so do all members of congress.

How do you feel now that he is out?

I don't expect anything less from the corrupt congress.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/RepNikema/status/1730638543192567964
Nikema Williams on why she was one of two Democrats who voted against expelling him. I am legitimately stupider for having read this.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/RepNikema/status/1730638543192567964
Nikema Williams on why she was one of two Democrats who voted against expelling him. I am legitimately stupider for having read this.

Williams is getting deservedly dogpiled by her constituents for this vote. Really not sure what her calculation was here, but I am very surprised.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All I will say is that it is truly a dark day in America when a successful businessman, star volleyball player, war hero, 9/11 survivor, Founding Father, and first man on the Moon is expelled from Congress for political disagreements.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RepNikema/status/1730638543192567964
Nikema Williams on why she was one of two Democrats who voted against expelling him. I am legitimately stupider for having read this.

Williams is getting deservedly dogpiled by her constituents for this vote. Really not sure what her calculation was here, but I am very surprised.

Legitimately accelerationism.

Even though Santos had said he will resign, she wants his stench to be there for the 2024 New York elections.  But that's hard to convey in a way that makes sense or is understandable beyond pure partisan gain.

[Atlas Force]

But that's hard to convey in a way that makes sense or is understandable beyond pure partisan gain.

Hmm are we sure she doesn’t post on Atlas? /s

[Tekken_Guy]

Why I believe this race is no better than a toss-up for Democrats:

1. This is not the same NY-03 seat it was in 2020. Democrats have not had a good election cycle in Long Island since that year, and there’s a strong possibility even Trump is going to carry it next year. The Siena polls show Biden winning the suburbs by the same margin Schumer did when he lost NY-03 by 4 points.
2. Tom Suozzi, while not a weak candidate, isn’t some electoral juggernaut. He has a history of losing elections, i.e. the 2009 County Executive race one year after Obama won it, went nowhere in his gubernatorial bid, and generally always runs about even with the top of the ticket in his congressional elections. He’s not exactly someone who can outperform fundamentals.
3. Even the strongest candidates eventually stop being so strong. Chuck Schumer went from landslide victories in the state to only winning re-election by 14% in 2022. Sean Patrick Maloney always overperformed in his old seat, only to lose a Biden+10 seat in 2022. Outside of NY, just two years ago, a Democrat with universal name recognition running for his old job in a Biden+10 state lost to a political newcomer.
4. It’s not a guarantee Democrats will enjoy the turnout and organizational advantages they have in other states, given the strength of the NY GOP and weakness of the NY Dems.
5. The issues that work for Democrats elsewhere in the country won’t work in NY to the same extent. Abortion rights are not seriously threatened in NY. Meanwhile crime is an albatross around Dems’ neck in the state.
6. Israel as an issue seems to benefit Republicans here. NY-03 is a staunchly pro-Israel district, and the Squad will do Suozzi no favors. And his opponent might be a literal Israeli Defense Forces veteran, and what Biden-Zeldin voter would want to vote against that?
7. Because Republicans pushed Santos out, this makes it difficult to attack Republicans on him.

TLDR: This race is not a slam dunk for Democrats, and looking at the race as “Long Island’s most famous Democrat running to reclaim Biden+8 seat after GOP scandal” is intellectually dishonest.

The reasons Republicans felt OK expelling Santos is because they really like their odds in a special, even against Suozzi.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1730935676772782298
https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1730935820633206858

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Suozzi is a good fit for the seat, but the GOP has been dominant in Long Island since 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

Suozzi is a good fit for the seat, but the GOP has been dominant in Long Island since 2020.

He's a way stronger candidate than Zimmerman but he's probably not any significantly stronger than Schumer, who lost the seat in 2022.

[Pollster]

It is simultaneously true that Republicans have a uniquely strong and well-organized machine on Long Island, and that Democrats' recent troubles in the region are largely driven by turnout.

This dynamic points to a very competitive special election.