Why did Jimmy Carter win Rhode Island in 1980?
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  Why did Jimmy Carter win Rhode Island in 1980?
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Author Topic: Why did Jimmy Carter win Rhode Island in 1980?  (Read 913 times)
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LeonelBrizola
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« on: December 19, 2022, 06:43:27 AM »

This is the only time since 1852 when it voted for a different candidate than Massachusetts
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2022, 11:11:25 AM »

I was about to say Anderson tipped MA to Reagan, but then I saw he did almost as well in RI so I'm stumped. Maybe just Reagan being an Irishman helped in MA...
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Liminal Trans Girl
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2022, 01:02:49 PM »

This is the only time since 1852 when it voted for a different candidate than Massachusetts

In 1972, the only state to vote for Democrat George McGovern was Massachusetts
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2022, 01:03:24 PM »

Rhode Island seems pretty pro-incumbent, like Hawaii.
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2022, 01:23:49 PM »

Since Rhode Island is a smaller state and with Providence taking up a pretty larger percentage of the state I’m thinking it probably just had a higher Democratic floor then MA at the time and fewer independent Anderson voters to balance out big city machine Democrats.
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« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2022, 02:27:55 PM »

I was about to say Anderson tipped MA to Reagan, but then I saw he did almost as well in RI so I'm stumped. Maybe just Reagan being an Irishman helped in MA...

Massholes probably weren’t too keen on Jimmy Peanuts given how nasty the primary was between him and The Swimmer. The Anderson effect seems a likely explanation for Rhode Island’s 1980 results as an option for Yankee Republicans not exactly enthralled by Reaganite fusionism.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2022, 02:33:38 PM »

What’s struck me re: Reagan’s performance in RI is how much RI swung to the right in 1984, going from a double-digit win for Carter to, of course, backing Reagan in 1984 (albeit narrowly). CT voted much more conservatively in both elections, but it saw a similarly large swing (Reagan won it by a little less than 10 points in 1980 but by over 20 points in 1984). MA swung to the right too, but by much less - went from Reagan+0.15 to voting for him by a few points (it was his closest win in both elections). Looking at other parts of New England, NH’s 1984 swing was similar to CT/RI (NH was actually one of the reddest states during the Reagan years). Ditto for VT. And rounding it off is ME, which had a ginormous rightward swing even compared to NH/RI/CT, going from just narrowly backing Reagan to giving him north of 60%.

TLDR: What do the Deep South and New England have in common? They both swung quite a lot to the right in 1984, that’s what! Except for, for whatever reason, MA.
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« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2022, 06:38:04 PM »

I saw a graph once which showed that the worst performance by a dem since 1960 among college educated whites as not 1972 or 1984 but 1980
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2022, 11:55:31 PM »

I saw a graph once which showed that the worst performance by a dem since 1960 among college educated whites as not 1972 or 1984 but 1980

Almost certainly due to Anderson.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2022, 11:56:25 PM »

I saw a graph once which showed that the worst performance by a dem since 1960 among college educated whites as not 1972 or 1984 but 1980

Almost certainly due to Anderson.


Even then Carter lost by 10 vs McGovern losing by 23 and Mondale by 19. Though that difference may be the fact that Carter did way way better among white working class voters than either McGovern or Mondale 

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King of Kensington
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« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2022, 11:43:12 PM »

Anderson had more of an "upscale" appeal I think, RI has more lunch-bucket Ds.  Ted Kennedy likely damaged the Carter brand in Mass too?

Was Reagan really seen as "Irish" or ever really make specific appeals to the Irish American vote?  He was a small-town midwestern Protestant, even though he did have Irish Catholic ancestry.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2022, 04:43:55 PM »

I think Carter underperformed in Rhode Island in 1976 (JFK, LBJ, and HHH all carried RI by huge margins, was their best state).  Maybe 1980 was also something of a return to the mean.

Also:

Rhode Island seems pretty pro-incumbent, like Hawaii.
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