USA Today/Gallup Poll: Clinton/Giuliani lead for nomination

[Reaganfan]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-02-13-2008-poll.htm

[CARLHAYDEN]

Interesting numbers:

First, both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards are relatively well known, but also have relativerly high negatives.

Second, while the number of "don't know" for Barak have decrease by 17% December to February, his favorable percentage increased by 3 points and his unfavorable by 8 points.

Third, while still well back in the pack, Richardson has been making gains.

[Verily]

Obama's favorable increased by 11, not 3.

Romney's the one with bad news; his favorables actually dropped when more people had heard of him.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I was a skeptic at first, but it's now clear to me that Giuliani's expanding lead over McCain in national polls is real, and not just a statistical fluke.  As to whether this makes any difference....the jury is still out on that as there is no national primary.  The only polls that matter are those in IA, NH, and SC, and we haven't gotten enough recent ones in those states to tell if things are changing.  As of the last round of polling, McCain was leading in SC by about 7-8 points, and Giuliani and McCain were nearly tied in both IA and NH.  (Slight lead for Giuliani in IA.  Slight lead for McCain in NH.)

Also, it's amusing how the percentage of people who claim to have "never heard of" someone can *increase* over time.  As this poll shows, it's happened for both Edwards and McCain.  The number of people who've never heard of Edwards has quadrupled in the last year and a half. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Obama's favorable increased by 11, not 3.

Romney's the one with bad news; his favorables actually dropped when more people had heard of him.

Excuse me, but I should have said his support:

. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

BASED ON 495 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

                                    Feb  Jan  Dec Nov
 
Hillary Rodham Clinton  40    29   33   31 
 
Barack Obama               21    18   20  19 
 
Al Gore                          14     11  12    9 
 
John Edwards               13     13    8  10 
 
Bill Richardson                4       3     2    2 
 
Wesley Clark                  1       2     2    3 
 
Christopher Dodd           1       1     1    1 

Joe Biden                        1       5     3    4 

Also, the "donn't know" level for Romney is so high its impossible to say where it will end up when he is better known.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Richardson is 5th place with 4%, and no one else breaks 1%.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Richardson is 5th place with 4%, and no one else breaks 1%.

National polls at this point are of limited value.

Gallup used to do a special poll of the party chairs of the counties around the country.  This was a very good insight into what was actually happening. 

[Alcon]

Richardson is 5th place with 4%, and no one else breaks 1%.

National polls at this point are of limited value.

Gallup used to do a special poll of the party chairs of the counties around the country.  This was a very good insight into what was actually happening. 

What ever happened to that?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Richardson is 5th place with 4%, and no one else breaks 1%.

National polls at this point are of limited value.

Gallup used to do a special poll of the party chairs of the counties around the country.  This was a very good insight into what was actually happening. 

What ever happened to that?

Good question.

In 1971 Gallup was known as the American Index of Public Opinion and was the first organization that caught wind of McGovern's strength in its poll of Democrat county chairs.

Unfortunately I don't know any of the people at the decision making level in Gallup any more.

I have been told that with rising costs and increasing competition Gallup is reluctant to do any surveys not commissioned by clients.

Now, Gallup is in its political polls primarily funded by major media outlets, who are not interested in the opinions of party county chairs.

I am thinking of suggesting to another long time polling organization where I do know people in the decision making level that they approach their media clients and suggest funding such a poll.   

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This didn't poll county chairs, but it's a similar sort of poll:

Richardson and Gingrich got chosen as the most likely long shot candidate by their respective party insiders.

http://syndication.nationaljournal.com/images/210Insiderspoll_NJlogo.pdf

[CARLHAYDEN]

This didn't poll county chairs, but it's a similar sort of poll:

Richardson and Gingrich got chosen as the most likely long shot candidate by their respective party insiders.

http://syndication.nationaljournal.com/images/210Insiderspoll_NJlogo.pdf

Thanks.

I agree that Richardson is doing very well among knowledgeable Democrat party 'insiders' as their best candidate to win the election.

Gingrich has been criss-crossing the country making some very good speechs, but he has too much baggage to get nominated.