How many seats would unanimous House delegation states need to get a seat of the other party?
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  How many seats would unanimous House delegation states need to get a seat of the other party?
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Author Topic: How many seats would unanimous House delegation states need to get a seat of the other party?  (Read 391 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« on: December 17, 2022, 10:53:38 PM »
« edited: December 17, 2022, 11:09:25 PM by I will not be your victim, I will not bathe in your flames »

Assuming no gerrymandering.

Unanimous states:

Alaska
Arkansas
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Idaho
Iowa
Maine
Massachusetts
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Utah
Vermont
West Virginia
Wyoming
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2022, 11:13:30 PM »

My answers:

Alaska - Obviously this is a bit of a fluke state having a Democrat to begin with but if Young were still alive or no the answer is almost certainly three...at that point you're basically guaranteed a mostly secure D seat in Anchorage and a definite R seat elsewhere.

Arkansas - Six seats would be enough for a Pulaski County-dominated one that would be pretty Safe D.

Connecticut - Seven would be pretty tough to deny the GOP any seats without serious gerrymandering.

Delaware - Just add a second and you got it!

Hawaii - Probably not possible to draw a safe R seat at any seize LOL...and apparently even 25 isn't enough to guarantee an R seat.

Idaho - Five is enough to get a pretty safe D seat based around Boise...but no less than five. Although with the way Boise is going once Idaho does get a third seat after 2030 that may be enough.

Iowa - Just add a fifth and it's pretty tough for the Republicans to win any district that contains Polk County with districts of this size.

Maine - Golden is arguably a fluke and two is enough...but with three you can prevent such a fluke.

Massachusetts - You literally need something like 25 districts without gerrymandering to get a Trump district. I've tried.

Montana - Three probably isn't quite enough to get a consistent D seat...but four definitely is.

Nebraska - Four should be enough to shrink the Omaha seat from the total swing district is now to a pretty solid D seat.

New Hampshire - Add a third and you get a solid seat for each party.

New Mexico - Three should actually be enough except for gerrymandering and an incompetent state GOP...four is enough to be proof for that. So just one more.

North Dakota - Five is enough for a Fargo-based seat that's pretty swingy, six thus would be enough for a pretty solid Fargo seat. Five more needed.

Oklahoma - Actually only one more with fair districts is enough to get a solid enough D seat in Oklahoma County.

Rhode Island - You need five for a Trump district, and probably six for a Trump district that's immune to a conservative Democrat.

South Dakota - Sioux Falls is for some reason a bit to the right of Fargo...would probably require at least seven seats total to get a solid D one out of there.

Utah - Without gerrymandering its current four would be enough actually, that would definitely result under a fair map for a solid D seat in Salt Lake County. But add a fifth and you get a situation where even with gerrymandering the Republicans would probably have to cede one of the seats as a vote sink.

Vermont - I have no clue, but it would probably require something like 8 seats minimum.

West Virginia - Honestly would probably require something like 20 to get one to consistently elect a Democrat and not have to rely on ancestrally D areas electing a conservadem.

Wyoming - The State Senate is currently 2/30 Democrats, and both of those seats would probably vote Republican if merged with a nearby Republican one. So the answer is quite higher than 15...possibly something like 25.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2022, 02:59:55 AM »


Great answer, you could have dramatized by ranking in increasing order.
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bagelman
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« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2022, 06:40:10 AM »

Obviously you already know this, but it's pretty easy for the GOP to keep a 5R Idaho.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8331181a-0148-491c-9273-a5687f4d0635

I'd be surprised if Boise is trending D enough to break either 1 or 2 on that map.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2022, 06:57:22 AM »

Wyoming - The State Senate is currently 2/30 Democrats, and both of those seats would probably vote Republican if merged with a nearby Republican one. So the answer is quite higher than 15...possibly something like 25.

The city of Laramie, seat of Albany County and the University of Wyoming, votes narrowly but consistently Democratic and seems to be about 1/18th of the whole state, so 18 could be enough (it was Clinton+4 but with loads of Gary Johnson votes that are a one-off circumstance, then Biden+13). I toyed around in DRA and you can do even better by pairing Teton County with the Wind River Indian Reservation, bringing it down to 14 if not 13, but I am pretty sure that constitutes gerrymandering.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2022, 01:20:03 PM »

Montana - Three probably isn't quite enough to get a consistent D seat...but four definitely is.
Actually no not "definitely", four does allow for a pretty logical Missoula to Helena seat that voted for Biden, but only by less than a point. Five does allow for a trimmed down version of the same seat that voted for Biden by about 5 points though.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2022, 07:17:19 AM »

Montana - Three probably isn't quite enough to get a consistent D seat...but four definitely is.
Actually no not "definitely", four does allow for a pretty logical Missoula to Helena seat that voted for Biden, but only by less than a point. Five does allow for a trimmed down version of the same seat that voted for Biden by about 5 points though.
Surely, with how MT Ds fairly routinely overperform presidential-level benchmarks, a very narrow Biden seat would be consistently Democratic?
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