a question for the vorlon?

[WalterMitty]

vorlon, im wondering about a point another poster brought up last night.  do you think that most kerry supporters always assumed edwards would be the pick?  therefore, edwards has already been factoring into the polls to date.

sure, kerry will get a temporary bounce due to the news coverage, but how much of an overall bounce, if any will kerry receive?

[The Vorlon]

In large measure, I think the markets have "priced in" the Edwards pick.

I think the closer you are to North Carolina, the more it is priced in, the further away, the less it matters.

Kerry will get a modest bump in the polls - simply because the media has something "new" to cover and the Kerry/Edwards combo will get alot of free media out of it.

I think both Bush and Kerry will both get far smaller bumps from their conventions than is typical, just because the electorate is so tuned in, so early this year.

The next batch of polls we see are not a particularly good crop - I think we are due for another LA Times poll and a Zogby soon, and these will show an exagerated Kerry bump, but I think the "real" polls will likely show maybe a 4 ish% Kerry bump that fades  in two weeks or so.

In the end, the VP pick, unless it is a total disatser does not matter a whole lot IMHO.

Kerry gets a week of nice media coverage.  A good thing, but in the end, not a game breaker one way or the other

I agree with Mr. Garner

The Vice Presidency isn't worth a warm bucket of spit"

                              John Nance Garner - 32nd Vice President

[The Duke]

I also have a question.  Kerry has pulled his ads in Arkansas.  Does this mean he thinks the state is no longer in play?

[bullmoose88]

Might mean he's out to save some money because he's going to send big bad bill down there.

[The Vorlon]

I also have a question.  Kerry has pulled his ads in Arkansas.  Does this mean he thinks the state is no longer in play?

Arkansas is still very much in play.

Usually what a campaign will do is poll the heck out of a state, run some ads, and poll again to see if they got some movement.

I am guessing (I don't know anybody who is doing polling down in Arkansas so I am "blind" in that state) that they got no actual movement from the ads they were running so they pulled them.

 I expect a new crop of Kerry ads will try again and fairly soon.

Assuming kerry using the Federal finance money for the General election, he needs to spend all his primary money by the end of the month - I expect some of it will go to the TV stations in Little Rock.