Will we ever have another Evangelical Christian President again?

[Medal506]

Bill Clinton was the last evangelical Christian elected president. Bush, Obama and Trump were all mainline Protestants and Biden is a Catholic. So far DeSantis the leading GOP frontrunner is Catholic. The question remains, will we ever have another evangelical Christian president again? Or will Bill Clinton go down as the last Evangelical President in US history?

[Skill and Chance]

I'm fairly sure W. Bush would answer yes if you asked him if he was an Evangelical Christian, history of official association with a mainline church notwithstanding.

As for this question, they are by most definitions >20% of the population, extremely high turnout and very well distributed geographically for a political system with rural overrepresentation (this last point is why Catholics have underperformed so much in electing presidents despite being the plurality of Christians nationwide).  They also have more children than the US average and those children stay in the faith at a much higher rate than other Christian denominations.  So I think the answer is very obviously no.  I would expect them to punch above their weight for a while, with the most likely outcome being ~1/3 of 21st century presidents identifying as Evangelical Christian to at least some degree.

They would be more likely to be a majority of 21st century presidents than not have another one.

 

[Del Tachi]

Yes, almost certainly.  I agree that George W. Bush likely counts as an "Evangelical" Christian.  The UMC is a very theologically diverse denomination. 

[Medal506]

Yes, almost certainly.  I agree that George W. Bush likely counts as an "Evangelical" Christian.  The UMC is a very theologically diverse denomination. 

I think I must have been mistaken because Bush’s father was an Episcopalian and Bush himself was formally Episcopalian and his family left the church for a United Methodist Church instead.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

Bill Clinton is as much of an Evangelical Christian as I am Edward G  Robinson.... Please come up with something halfway real.

[EastwoodS]

I hope not, who needs all that toxicity?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I hope not, who needs all that toxicity?

George W Bush was probably the best human being to be president in the past 4 decades

[UWS]

I hope not, who needs all that toxicity?

George W Bush was probably the best human being to be president in the past 4 decades

Even though I like Dubya I think Ronald Reagan is better

[Vosem]

I'm fairly sure W. Bush would answer yes if you asked him if he was an Evangelical Christian, history of official association with a mainline church notwithstanding.

As for this question, they are by most definitions >20% of the population, extremely high turnout and very well distributed geographically for a political system with rural overrepresentation (this last point is why Catholics have underperformed so much in electing presidents despite being the plurality of Christians nationwide).  They also have more children than the US average and those children stay in the faith at a much higher rate than other Christian denominations.  So I think the answer is very obviously no.  I would expect them to punch above their weight for a while, with the most likely outcome being ~1/3 of 21st century presidents identifying as Evangelical Christian to at least some degree.

They would be more likely to be a majority of 21st century presidents than not have another one.

They're actually probably a low-turnout demographic; county maps of evangelical penetration and county maps of turnout are noticeably anti-correlated, and they have other characteristics (like relatively low education and wealth levels) which would lead you to expect low turnout. They could in principle become far more influential easily given higher levels of turnout, but it's hard to say what might cause that to come about and I don't really expect that to happen.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I hope not, who needs all that toxicity?

George W Bush was probably the best human being to be president in the past 4 decades

Even though I like Dubya I think Ronald Reagan is better

Reagan was easily the better president but as a person I like Bush more .

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm fairly sure W. Bush would answer yes if you asked him if he was an Evangelical Christian, history of official association with a mainline church notwithstanding.

As for this question, they are by most definitions >20% of the population, extremely high turnout and very well distributed geographically for a political system with rural overrepresentation (this last point is why Catholics have underperformed so much in electing presidents despite being the plurality of Christians nationwide).  They also have more children than the US average and those children stay in the faith at a much higher rate than other Christian denominations.  So I think the answer is very obviously no.  I would expect them to punch above their weight for a while, with the most likely outcome being ~1/3 of 21st century presidents identifying as Evangelical Christian to at least some degree.

They would be more likely to be a majority of 21st century presidents than not have another one.

They're actually probably a low-turnout demographic; county maps of evangelical penetration and county maps of turnout are noticeably anti-correlated, and they have other characteristics (like relatively low education and wealth levels) which would lead you to expect low turnout. They could in principle become far more influential easily given higher levels of turnout, but it's hard to say what might cause that to come about and I don't really expect that to happen.

This depends on how you look at it.  High turnout rates are certainly positively correlated with other measures of social/community engagement- such as church attendance.  The people who actually go to evangelical churches regularly are definitely a high turnout group.  But, people who are culturally "evangelical" but rarely or never attend church turnout much less- with the exception of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

The demographics of people actually in evangelical churches tend to be more upscale than a lot of people realize.  If you go to a rural/exurban county in the South, there is a huge cultural gap between people who are and are not in churches on Sunday mornings.  That also often shows itself in GOP primaries.

[Vosem]

I'm fairly sure W. Bush would answer yes if you asked him if he was an Evangelical Christian, history of official association with a mainline church notwithstanding.

As for this question, they are by most definitions >20% of the population, extremely high turnout and very well distributed geographically for a political system with rural overrepresentation (this last point is why Catholics have underperformed so much in electing presidents despite being the plurality of Christians nationwide).  They also have more children than the US average and those children stay in the faith at a much higher rate than other Christian denominations.  So I think the answer is very obviously no.  I would expect them to punch above their weight for a while, with the most likely outcome being ~1/3 of 21st century presidents identifying as Evangelical Christian to at least some degree.

They would be more likely to be a majority of 21st century presidents than not have another one.

They're actually probably a low-turnout demographic; county maps of evangelical penetration and county maps of turnout are noticeably anti-correlated, and they have other characteristics (like relatively low education and wealth levels) which would lead you to expect low turnout. They could in principle become far more influential easily given higher levels of turnout, but it's hard to say what might cause that to come about and I don't really expect that to happen.

This depends on how you look at it.  High turnout rates are certainly positively correlated with other measures of social/community engagement- such as church attendance.  The people who actually go to evangelical churches regularly are definitely a high turnout group.  But, people who are culturally "evangelical" but rarely or never attend church turnout much less- with the exception of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

The demographics of people actually in evangelical churches tend to be more upscale than a lot of people realize.  If you go to a rural/exurban county in the South, there is a huge cultural gap between people who are and are not in churches on Sunday mornings.  That also often shows itself in GOP primaries.

Oh, yes, that’s absolutely true. My post was about people who self-identify as “evangelical” or “born-again” when asked by polling companies. Church attendance does of course correlate with turnout.

[Alben Barkley]

Bill Clinton is as much of an Evangelical Christian as I am Edward G  Robinson.... Please come up with something halfway real.

He is (or at least was) officially a Southern Baptist. Whether he is seriously religious is another question.

[Frodo]

Post-Trump, no, their credibility is shot due to their Faustian Bargain with him.  George W. Bush was their last.