Who does Sinema take more votes from?

[Tekken_Guy]

Who does Sinema take more votes from? Gallego or a MAGA GOP candidate?

[President Johnson]

I think the MAGA Republican, because she'd be the only viable alternative for "McCain Republicans". Her approval rating among Democrats was already completely in the tank before she became an independent.

[Vosem]

I think the MAGA Republican, because she'd be the only viable alternative for "McCain Republicans". Her approval rating among Democrats was already completely in the tank before she became an independent.

This would be true in a Midwestern state, but I would be stunned if 'McCain Republicans' weren't already a key part of the Hobbs/Kelly coalition; Lake very explicitly wanted them not to vote for her.

[Del Tachi]

She pulls more equally than most posters think, but still probably Gallego.

[Canis]

I think the MAGA Republican, because she'd be the only viable alternative for "McCain Republicans". Her approval rating among Democrats was already completely in the tank before she became an independent.

This would be true in a Midwestern state, but I would be stunned if 'McCain Republicans' weren't already a key part of the Hobbs/Kelly coalition; Lake very explicitly wanted them not to vote for her.

Exactly, a far-right nominee like Lamb would not win the McCain republican types anyway all Sinema's independent bid will do is win them instead of em going to Gallego.

[Landslide Lyndon]

People are talking as if Gallego is some Ilhan Omar clone. McCain Republicans are mostly well educated suburbanites and if they find him acceptable then they will vote for him in order to stop the MAGA Republican.
It's not like Sinema is so beloved among moderates and independents that they will follow her wherever she ges. Her favorables were abysmal even among them.

[coloradocowboi]

People are talking as if Gallego is some Ilhan Omar clone. McCain Republicans are mostly well educated suburbanites and if they find him acceptable then they will vote for him in order to stop the MAGA Republican.
It's not like Sinema is so beloved among moderates and independents that they will follow her wherever she ges. Her favorables were abysmal even among them.

I think this year proved politics is a lot less like team sports than people think. Also, ideology matters less than people think. What Ruben Gallego is a son of immigrant, Marine, and Harvard graduate, who happens to be a smidge to the left of Arizona's center of political gravity. He is not Cori Bush lol. He's not even Earl Blumenauer. And I think a lot of the blue avatars are severely underestimating him.

I don't see how anyone entertaining a vote for Sinema wouldn't also entertain voting for him. And I think on every conceivable issue except a poorly defined "moderateness" he has considerable advantages. He's a veteran, she's a blue haired bisexual weirdo. He's for raising taxes on the super wealthy, she's not. He's very talkative and media-friendly, she hides at home apparently selling designer shoes on Facebook marketplace (Google it). She is wholly unrelatable.... except for the 1% (or likely less) of the population who cares more about making sure the carried interest loophole remains open at the cost of any other policy priority, who btw are, yes, mostly a Republican voting bloc anyway. He's kinda cool.

If she runs, she will get five percent or less of the vote in most scenarios. A Ducey vs. Gallego matchup would be lucky to see her even get that high. If it's Gallego vs. some MAGA loon (and don't compare it to Kari Lake, y'all, be honest and compare that potential candidate to Blake Masters, because they will much more likely be perceived that way unless Katie Hobbs for some reason runs in the Dem primary lol), Sinema might get up to like 7% of the vote, drawing a handful of rich people who are single issue voters on protecting their wealth but uneasy with the far right.

[5280]

People are talking as if Gallego is some Ilhan Omar clone. McCain Republicans are mostly well educated suburbanites and if they find him acceptable then they will vote for him in order to stop the MAGA Republican.
It's not like Sinema is so beloved among moderates and independents that they will follow her wherever she ges. Her favorables were abysmal even among them.

I think this year proved politics is a lot less like team sports than people think. Also, ideology matters less than people think. What Ruben Gallego is a son of immigrant, Marine, and Harvard graduate, who happens to be a smidge to the left of Arizona's center of political gravity. He is not Cori Bush lol. He's not even Earl Blumenauer. And I think a lot of the blue avatars are severely underestimating him.

I don't see how anyone entertaining a vote for Sinema wouldn't also entertain voting for him. And I think on every conceivable issue except a poorly defined "moderateness" he has considerable advantages. He's a veteran, she's a blue haired bisexual weirdo. He's for raising taxes on the super wealthy, she's not. He's very talkative and media-friendly, she hides at home apparently selling designer shoes on Facebook marketplace (Google it). She is wholly unrelatable.... except for the 1% (or likely less) of the population who cares more about making sure the carried interest loophole remains open at the cost of any other policy priority, who btw are, yes, mostly a Republican voting bloc anyway. He's kinda cool.

If she runs, she will get five percent or less of the vote in most scenarios. A Ducey vs. Gallego matchup would be lucky to see her even get that high. If it's Gallego vs. some MAGA loon (and don't compare it to Kari Lake, y'all, be honest and compare that potential candidate to Blake Masters, because they will much more likely be perceived that way unless Katie Hobbs for some reason runs in the Dem primary lol), Sinema might get up to like 7% of the vote, drawing a handful of rich people who are single issue voters on protecting their wealth but uneasy with the far right.

Why does this matter? She's trying to appeal to a broad range of voters that are not on the far extremes of the political spectrum. This is basically grasping at straws. If anything I hope the GOP doesn't nominate anyone for senator and would pull more votes from them.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

People are talking as if Gallego is some Ilhan Omar clone. McCain Republicans are mostly well educated suburbanites and if they find him acceptable then they will vote for him in order to stop the MAGA Republican.
It's not like Sinema is so beloved among moderates and independents that they will follow her wherever she ges. Her favorables were abysmal even among them.

As much as I love Gallego/hate Sinema, reality doesn't matter. If you can convince these McCain Republicans that Gallego is an Ilhan Omar/Squad clone, that's all it takes!! Whether he is or not doesn't matter! Perception matters

[Landslide Lyndon]

People are talking as if Gallego is some Ilhan Omar clone. McCain Republicans are mostly well educated suburbanites and if they find him acceptable then they will vote for him in order to stop the MAGA Republican.
It's not like Sinema is so beloved among moderates and independents that they will follow her wherever she ges. Her favorables were abysmal even among them.

As much as I love Gallego/hate Sinema, reality doesn't matter. If you can convince these McCain Republicans that Gallego is an Ilhan Omar/Squad clone, that's all it takes!! Whether he is or not doesn't matter! Perception matters

Sinema was literally a Green Party member and anti-Iraq War activist. She is, as mentioned, an openly bisexual atheist. Republicans tried to paint her as another leftie extremist and failed.
Why would that work with Gallego?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like it's way too early to ask this question because it's unclear if she does run, how she will define herself and her campaign. If she ultimately decides to become more of like a Tulsi Gabbard and heavily campaigns on Dems becoming "too woke" and whatever, ofc she'll take more votes from the R. On the flip side, if she campaigns as a more "moderate hero" D alternative while still being firm on certain make or break issues for Rs, then Ds.

[Yoda]

I think she ends up dropping out when late into the summer she's polling around 10% still. I heard someone the other day say that she's too vain to stay in a race in which she's going to get blown out and that really sounded right to me.