TN: DeSantis +13

[Fargobison]

DeSantis: 54%
Trump: 41%

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2022/12/14/vanderbilt-poll-2022-tennessee/

[President Johnson]

Are these polls part of an operation by Republican donors to force a narrative? Trump is having a round of tough polling lately.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Are these polls part of an operation by Republican donors to force a narrative? Trump is having a round of tough polling lately.

It's part of the media strategy to assume DeSantis is the frontrunner for the nomination now that he has been reelected as GOV but he was only elected Gov with Rubio on the ballot not of the United States

[2016]

Are these polls part of an operation by Republican donors to force a narrative? Trump is having a round of tough polling lately.

It's part of the media strategy to assume DeSantis is the frontrunner for the nomination now that he has been reelected as GOV but he was only elected Gov with Rubio on the ballot not of the United States

This makes no sense what you are saying here. DeSantis OUTPERFORMED Rubio in Florida. He won Palm Beach County while Rubio didn't. The reverse is too. DeSantis helped Rubio not Rubio helping DeSantis. Rubios favorables in FL are worse compared to DeSantis.
DeSantis has a higher Job Approval Rating as Governor compared to Rubio as a Senator.

DeSantis got about 139,000+ Votes more than Rubio.

DeSantis 4,614,010 Votes
Rubio 4,474,847 Votes

DeSantis + 139,163

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Would have thought this would have been a good state for Trump.

If the national polls are accurate what states is Trump ahead of DeSantis?

[Sestak]

I don't think DeSantis up by just ~10ish in Southern states is actually that good for him. This should be his strongest part of the country - certainly indicates that Trump is by no means out of this.

[2016]

I don't think DeSantis up by just ~10ish in Southern states is actually that good for him. This should be his strongest part of the country - certainly indicates that Trump is by no means out of this.

Trump got only 39 % in TN during the 2016 Primary
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Tennessee#Republican_primary
This is VERY BAD News for Trump in a State he won by 15 Percentage Points in 2016.

[Fargobison]

Would have thought this would have been a good state for Trump.

If the national polls are accurate what states is Trump ahead of DeSantis?

He probably still has West Virginia.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I will say that Vanderbilt has historically not been a great pollster.  It's historically almost always vastly overrated Democrats.  Still, it's probably good news for DeSantis, but I don't have anything to base a Vanderbilt GOP primary poll on.

[Alben Barkley]

I don't think DeSantis up by just ~10ish in Southern states is actually that good for him. This should be his strongest part of the country - certainly indicates that Trump is by no means out of this.

What? A state like Tennessee should be one of the strongest for TRUMP! Imagine actually spinning this poll as good news for him!

Anyway, this is part of a pattern now strongly suggesting Trump is deep underwater and in serious trouble. There is no denying it anymore. Hard to believe as it may seem, the evidence suggests the dam may finally have broken.

[MT Treasurer]

Are these polls part of an operation by Republican donors to force a narrative? Trump is having a round of tough polling lately.

Or maybe, just maybe, this isn’t some conspiracy but part of a genuine shift away from Trump? If you didn’t have this (frustrating) tendency of stereotyping all GOP primary voters as blind Trump cultists, you wouldn’t be too surprised by this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Are these polls part of an operation by Republican donors to force a narrative? Trump is having a round of tough polling lately.

It's part of the media strategy to assume DeSantis is the frontrunner for the nomination now that he has been reelected as GOV but he was only elected Gov with Rubio on the ballot not of the United States

This makes no sense what you are saying here. DeSantis OUTPERFORMED Rubio in Florida. He won Palm Beach County while Rubio didn't. The reverse is too. DeSantis helped Rubio not Rubio helping DeSantis. Rubios favorables in FL are worse compared to DeSantis.
DeSantis has a higher Job Approval Rating as Governor compared to Rubio as a Senator.

DeSantis got about 139,000+ Votes more than Rubio.

DeSantis 4,614,010 Votes
Rubio 4,474,847 Votes

DeSantis + 139,163

Yeah he overperforning Rubio and won by 20 I didn't say that it was the only reason why DeSantis won by 20 but he only won by 1 pt in 2018 when Scott was on the ballot it was a repeat of 2010 anyways Rubio v Meeks v Crist GE that Rubio won Rs don't win by 10/20 pts in non Rubio yrs 2008 Obama win FL/2012 Obama won FL 2014 Scott won by 1, 2018 Scott won by 1, 2016 with Rubio plus 10 on Murphy, he performs like a Generic R against Biden and you can't cherry pick polls because the same Emerson poll that had Johnson. Winning has DeSantis down by 4


Lol Trump and DeSantis are against Student Loan Discharge once SCOTUS unfreezes Student Loan Discharge by Trump Appeals Crt racist judges Biden will have an issue to run on against DeSantis, DeSantis is winning in some polls because Biden hasn't scrutinized him yet

[Hope For A New Era]

If you didn’t have this (frustrating) tendency of stereotyping all GOP primary voters as blind Trump cultists, you wouldn’t be too surprised by this.

Well, forgive us for making a logical assumption based on the last seven years. Up until these polls, there has been almost no evidence to the contrary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Are these polls part of an operation by Republican donors to force a narrative? Trump is having a round of tough polling lately.

Or maybe, just maybe, this isn’t some conspiracy but part of a genuine shift away from Trump? If you didn’t have this (frustrating) tendency of stereotyping all GOP primary voters as blind Trump cultists, you wouldn’t be too surprised by this.

If Biden wins we get more student loans Discharge but if DeSantis win or Trump win we get zilch and MT Treasure votes R the Rs Filibustered Voting Right, including Collins that's why she is vulnerable to Jared Golden in 26 she won of 1400 Stimulus checks in 20 Voting rights wasn't offered until Biden got into office

[kwabbit]

Are these polls part of an operation by Republican donors to force a narrative? Trump is having a round of tough polling lately.

Or maybe, just maybe, this isn’t some conspiracy but part of a genuine shift away from Trump? If you didn’t have this (frustrating) tendency of stereotyping all GOP primary voters as blind Trump cultists, you wouldn’t be too surprised by this.

Almost all of these unknown to the public pollsters are dropping DeSantis friendly polls. While DeSantis is at least basically tied with Trump in better known pollsters, Republican donors are definitely trying to push a narrative.

[MT Treasurer]

Are these polls part of an operation by Republican donors to force a narrative? Trump is having a round of tough polling lately.

Or maybe, just maybe, this isn’t some conspiracy but part of a genuine shift away from Trump? If you didn’t have this (frustrating) tendency of stereotyping all GOP primary voters as blind Trump cultists, you wouldn’t be too surprised by this.

Almost all of these unknown to the public pollsters are dropping DeSantis friendly polls. While DeSantis is at least basically tied with Trump in better known pollsters, Republican donors are definitely trying to push a narrative.

You’re just making stuff up at this point. Suffolk, WSJ, Vanderbilt, etc. have all shown DeSantis with commanding leads and none of them are "Republican donor"/"unknown" pollsters.

[Gracile]

Would have thought this would have been a good state for Trump.

If the national polls are accurate what states is Trump ahead of DeSantis?

My guess is Trump would probably be more favored in states with more secular, culturally conservative whites in the Northeast and parts of the Midwest - as well as areas with a lot of Obama-Trump voters (people who started voting GOP because of him).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Would have thought this would have been a good state for Trump.

If the national polls are accurate what states is Trump ahead of DeSantis?

Tennesee would actually be a good state for DeSantis due to its large conservative suburbanite population who are high prospenity voters. That lays the fundamental problem for Trump in a lot of these deep red states. If you move over to Virginia, Trump probably does better because the vast majority of college educated people are liberals thus the people voting in the R primary are much less educated and more rural, which is better for Trump.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Almost all of these unknown to the public pollsters are dropping DeSantis friendly polls. While DeSantis is at least basically tied with Trump in better known pollsters, Republican donors are definitely trying to push a narrative.

You’re just making stuff up at this point. Suffolk, WSJ, Vanderbilt, etc. have all shown DeSantis with commanding leads and none of them are "Republican donor"/"unknown" pollsters.

Yeah, as someone else who was earlier on suggesting that Ruffini et al were motivated to push a narrative (which I still think remains clearly the case for some of them), at this point it is clear there is actually real support out there for DeSantis. There are still some other polls from credible pollsters showing Trump ahead as well, so the precise statet of the race remains murky, but Suffolk, WSJ, Vanderbilt are all credible polling outfits showing DeSantis leads of various sorts.

[Del Tachi]

Would have thought this would have been a good state for Trump.

Tennessee would actually be one of the states where DeSantis would be strongest I'd think, since its Republican base is pretty suburban and Evangelical.

Trump's best states are going to be ones with relatively few Evangelicals or college-educated Republicans, states like where he did the best in 2016:  RI, DE, MA, WV, NY, PA, KY, etc., etc.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think DeSantis up by just ~10ish in Southern states is actually that good for him. This should be his strongest part of the country - certainly indicates that Trump is by no means out of this.

Ehhh, he's not Cruz.  DeSantis isn't running as the religious right candidate, so I don't think you can extrapolate too much from the 2016 primary map.  I would expect Evangelicals to either split by education between Trump and DeSantis or rally around a 3rd candidate they view as one of their own (this is the Trump plurality win nightmare scenario for the R establishment). 

[Unelectable Bystander]

There’s still a lot of rural vote in Tennessee. By count, less than 40% of Bill Lee’s primary votes came from Davidson, Shelby, Knox, Hamilton, Sumner, Williamson, Rutherford, or Maury. And an uncontested midterm primary probably skews educated. Still, lots of unknowns.