2024 MI Senate - Stabenow vs Craig, who wins?

[Woody]

Let's say he runs this time for senate.

[wbrocks67]

What was ultimately behind Stabenow's relative underperformance in 2018? I didn't realize how big she won in 2012, so her 2018 win being like 3-4% under Whitmer's seemed interesting.

[Ferguson97]

Stabenow wins easily.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

303 map is assured since Biden is at 50/50 Approvals all D Incumbents have 46/30 Approval, Toomey and Johnson had 37/41 in blue states

[GALeftist]

What was ultimately behind Stabenow's relative underperformance in 2018? I didn't realize how big she won in 2012, so her 2018 win being like 3-4% under Whitmer's seemed interesting.

IIRC Dems didn't really think they had anything to worry about and thought any money spent on Michigan would be better used elsewhere. Also John James was probably a little better than Generic R, at least back then.

[Xing]

I don't see why Craig would perform especially well unless Republicans were doing well nationally.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If he doesn't get someone to teach him some marketing skills, he has zero chance of beating Stabenow.

[Galeel]

Would go the same way as the presidential result, so probably Stabenow.

[Real Texan Politics]

Still Stabenow easily, but Craig could help downballot (at least a little).

[Hope For A New Era]

Stabenow wins. Probably runs very slightly ahead of Biden, like a point or two.

What was ultimately behind Stabenow's relative underperformance in 2018? I didn't realize how big she won in 2012, so her 2018 win being like 3-4% under Whitmer's seemed interesting.

John James's inexplicable strength and Gretchen Whitmer's very explicable strength.

[Vosem]

Depends on the national environment, but my guess is Stabenow runs 1-3 points behind Biden, since James has consistently run ahead of the top of the GOP ticket. (I think this corresponds to this race being a close national bellwether -- James probably wins if the GOP is winning the Presidency, and Stabenow does if Democrats are holding it. True even though MI is still somewhere left of the country as a whole.)

(I kind of suspect that Stabenow retires and Elissa Slotkin runs for this seat, given fundraising patterns. Jury's out regarding how that might go.)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Stabenow wins. The signature fiasco tells me his campaign wouldn’t be the most competent.

[Yoda]

There's zero reason to think that Michigan democrats will do anything but romp in '24 after the cycle they just had.