2022 Estimated Generic Ballot by State

[prag_prog]

2022 Estimated Generic Ballot by state after taking into account for uncontested races and top 2 primary races that had same party candidates. This was done by SplitTicket folks - https://split-ticket.org/2022/12/12/estimating-2022s-generic-ballot

This has national generic ballot as R+1.6. Tipping point state would be Wisconsin at R+1.7, only 0.1 points to the right of national generic ballot.

[wbrocks67]

Fitzpatrick really carrying Republicans over the finish line in PA lol. Only race that didn't go along with typical voting/partisan district patterns.

[prag_prog]

One thing which I was bit surprised looking at this was NC being to the left of GA and only 2.7 points to the right of National generic ballot. In 2018, it was around 7 points to the right of national GB. In 2020, it was around 5-6 points to the right whereas this year, it's only 2.7 points to the right of national GB despite pretty poor Black turnout.

[prag_prog]

Also CCM survived in a very tough environment in Nevada

[Skill and Chance]

Michigan almost as far left as Virginia is wild.

[Spectator]

Also CCM survived in a very tough environment in Nevada

Largely attributable to Amodei's overperformance in Washoe County.

I am kind of surprised at Pennsylvania, even accounting for Fitzpatrick. I guess Lee underperformed as well. Generally other Democratic incumbents did better than Biden.

[Skill and Chance]

One thing which I was bit surprised looking at this was NC being to the left of GA and only 2.7 points to the right of National generic ballot. In 2018, it was around 7 points to the right of national GB. In 2020, it was around 5-6 points to the right whereas this year, it's only 2.7 points to the right of national GB despite pretty poor Black turnout.

I wouldn't read too much into this because the NC map was much more competitive, likely leading to greater Dem effort there. 

In general, this was a very Republican year in the South.  Even the VA margin was closer than Obama 2012.

[prag_prog]

Also CCM survived in a very tough environment in Nevada

Largely attributable to Amodei's overperformance in Washoe County.

I am kind of surprised at Pennsylvania, even accounting for Fitzpatrick. I guess Lee underperformed as well. Generally other Democratic incumbents did better than Biden.

PA Electorate definitely wasn't that Dem leaning..it still had a pretty decent Dem turnout for a midterm under Dem President but it seems quite obvious that Shapiro & Fetterman's big wins were mainly due to persuasion. Someone on did math on twitter and said that Fetterman's margin would have been roughly 7 points if turnout in each county was similar to 2020

[prag_prog]

One thing which I was bit surprised looking at this was NC being to the left of GA and only 2.7 points to the right of National generic ballot. In 2018, it was around 7 points to the right of national GB. In 2020, it was around 5-6 points to the right whereas this year, it's only 2.7 points to the right of national GB despite pretty poor Black turnout.

I wouldn't read too much into this because the NC map was much more competitive, likely leading to greater Dem effort there. 

In general, this was a very Republican year in the South.  Even the VA margin was closer than Obama 2012.

hmm I don't think this map was that much more competitive than 2018, 2020. There were like just 2 districts with final margin <10 points. Also the effort put in NC was much lower than whatever effort Dems put in GA, AZ, NV etc. Even in Senate races, despite Budd's margin being 1.6 points more than Trump, he still underperformed Trump in Western NC and few counties in Central NC. This is despite Black turnout being quite abysmal in NC...NC counties with high Black % were the counties where Budd drastically overperformed Trump.

[Ferguson97]

Swing states

Michigan: +3.9 to the left of the nation (was 1.6 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+5.5 shift)
Pennsylvania: +0.9 to the left of the nation (was 3.3 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+4.2 shift)
Wisconsin: +0.1 to the right of the nation (was 3.7 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+3.6 shift)
Arizona: +0.6 to the right of the nation (was 4.5 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+3.9 shift)
Nevada: +1.8 to the right of the nation (was 2.0 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+0.2 shift)
North Carolina: +2.7 to the right of the nation (was 5.8 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+3.2 shift)
Georgia: +3.0 to the right of the nation (was 4.2 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+1.2 shift)

That is... not good for Republicans.

[Person Man]

Swing states

Michigan: +3.9 to the left of the nation (was 1.6 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+5.5 shift)
Pennsylvania: +0.9 to the left of the nation (was 3.3 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+4.2 shift)
Wisconsin: +0.1 to the right of the nation (was 3.7 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+3.6 shift)
Arizona: +0.6 to the right of the nation (was 4.5 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+3.9 shift)
Nevada: +1.8 to the right of the nation (was 2.0 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+0.2 shift)
North Carolina: +2.7 to the right of the nation (was 5.8 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+3.2 shift)
Georgia: +3.0 to the right of the nation (was 4.2 to the right of the nation in 2020, D+1.2 shift)

That is... not good for Republicans.

If this was a GE, this election would be fair. The tipping point is at 0.1% instead of 4%.

[wbrocks67]

Also CCM survived in a very tough environment in Nevada

Largely attributable to Amodei's overperformance in Washoe County.

I am kind of surprised at Pennsylvania, even accounting for Fitzpatrick. I guess Lee underperformed as well. Generally other Democratic incumbents did better than Biden.

PA Electorate definitely wasn't that Dem leaning..it still had a pretty decent Dem turnout for a midterm under Dem President but it seems quite obvious that Shapiro & Fetterman's big wins were mainly due to persuasion. Someone on did math on twitter and said that Fetterman's margin would have been roughly 7 points if turnout in each county was similar to 2020

The total PA electorate is never that Dem leaning. The map is extremely fair, so the house vote is usually even-ish when taking into account uncontested races.

Likewise, it would be a few pts to the left this year if a Democrat won in PA-01 by Fetterman's margin.

[Annatar]

The trend in states close to the tipping point is a lot like 2018, in 2018 states like PA trended democratic so it looked like the GOP edge in the EC had shrunk but states like PA ended up trending Republican in 2020 and the Republican edge grew in the EC relative to the popular vote.

The midwestern states all trending democratic relative to the nation is very similar to 2018, I don't think it tells us a lot. I remember after 2018 people were claiming PA wasn't going to trend Republican or would even start trending democrat because a lot of the counties where Trump had most improved over Romney had massive swings to the democrats, 2 years later many of these counties voted like 2016 or became even more Republican.

Even Iowa had a huge democratic trend in the house vote in 2018 which didn't reflect what occurred in 2020.