Why did Beasley do so bad with young voters?

[wbrocks67]

Now let me preface this by saying the exits could still be wonky with groups like this - but even with that being said, Beasley still seems to have likely severely underperformed with young voters. What happened here? Are North Carolina young voters (18-29) generally more Republican-leaning than the rest of the swing states? Even Ryan did much better than her with the group.

Or was it low turnout? Did young voters just not come out in NC, so the ones that did were Republican-leaning?

I only ask because given the margins everywhere else with young voters, if Beasley had gotten even Ryan's #s, she would've gotten much closer to winning.

Any NC experts, would love to know!

Among 18-29 year olds:
Kelly +56 (76-20)
Hassan +51 (74-23)
Fetterman +42 (70-28)
Barnes +40 (70-30)
Cortez Masto +33 (64-31)
Warnock +29 (63-34)
Ryan +18 (59-41)
Beasley +8 (52-44)

[Spectator]

Would not read much into the small sample sizes.

[Del Tachi]

North Carolina easily has the most racially polarized electorate of the states you listed, so that may have something to do with it. 

[Roll Roons]

North Carolina easily has the most racially polarized electorate of the states you listed, so that may have something to do with it. 

More than GA? I was under the impression that the white vote in GA was more Republican than the white vote in NC, but Warnock won in no small part because GA has a much higher black population.

[Del Tachi]

North Carolina easily has the most racially polarized electorate of the states you listed, so that may have something to do with it. 

More than GA? I was under the impression that the white vote in GA was more Republican than the white vote in NC, but Warnock won in no small part because GA has a much higher black population.

It's an interesting question.  I would have said Georgia was more racially polarized 2-3 cycles ago, but there's been a lot more White liberals moving to Atlanta than there has been Charlotte or RDU in recent years.  GOP keeps gaining in rural NC too, whereas it seems the White rurals have been maxed-out in Georgia for a while now. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The bathroom transgender Bill was deeply unpopular in NC and SSM if it would of passed before Eday would of helped but it didn't but Stein is already leading

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Now let me preface this by saying the exits could still be wonky with groups like this - but

That is actually the correct answer, you could have stopped right there and the post would have been better and answered your own question.

[wbrocks67]

Now let me preface this by saying the exits could still be wonky with groups like this - but

That is actually the correct answer, you could have stopped right there and the post would have been better and answered your own question.

Is the implication that Beasley did better with young voters than exits suggest? I totally get that could be correct answer here, but where's the proof? Why would the exits be more off in NC than elsewhere?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Is the implication that Beasley did better with young voters than exits suggest? I totally get that could be correct answer here, but where's the proof?

Not necessarily better, it could also have been that other candidates did worse with young voters in other states than the exit polls in the other states indicate.

As far as "proof" goes, psephological analysis of limited real world data is not perfectly scientific. It is one of those things that you understand over time after seeing large amounts of exit polls from multiple years over time (and sometimes then later checking precinct results, voter file data, or other data sources and then sanity checking the exit polls based on that).

Also btw since you mentioned it earlier, as far as turnout of young voters go, your best source is the NC secretary of state, not exit polls. In the past, actual turnout of young voters in voter file data has often (read: basically always) differed sharply from what was claimed in exit polls.

Why would the exits be more off in NC than elsewhere?

There is not much particular about NC that would make it particularly more likely to be off than other states, but on the other hand it is not surprising that *some* states would be particularly off (you just don't necessarily know which ones it will be in advance). The main reason for this is that exit polls use stratified sampling rather than random sampling (at least for the in person interviews at precinct polling locations, though not for polling early mail voters).

Since it is expensive to exit poll at too large a numbers of precincts, precincts are selected for inclusion in the stratified sample because supposedly the precincts are meant to be representative of the state as a whole, given past election trends. But this is a very tricky thing to get right, and inevitably some stratified samples will end up not to be very good - all the more so if there are unexpected shifts in either turnout or partisan coalitions as compared to the expectation the sample was built on based on previous elections.

In particular for young voters, given the difficulty of getting them to answer unknown numbers on the phone for a poll, I would suspect that a disproportionate number of responses may come from the stratified in-person portion of the exit polling, and thus the estimates for young voters would tend to be impacted more by error from bad stratification.

[LostFellow]

Now let me preface this by saying the exits could still be wonky with groups like this - but

That is actually the correct answer, you could have stopped right there and the post would have been better and answered your own question.

Is the implication that Beasley did better with young voters than exits suggest? I totally get that could be correct answer here, but where's the proof? Why would the exits be more off in NC than elsewhere?

Because exits being off don't mean that they are statistically biased in a direction, but just have high variance?

[TML]

It seems like Beasley was too cautious in her general election campaign and was thus rather uninspiring. This could explain her underperformance among younger voters, along with the fact that she wasn’t able to boost turnout among voters of color as much as some had hoped she would.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Small sample sizes and racial polarization.  But, I also think that Arizona number might be a little on the high side.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC and FL and WI have rejected Blk candidates, WI voted for Obama and Barnes because they had Caucasian males Biden and Evers running with them but it was a different story when Barnes ran by himself and NC rejected Obama in 2012 and FL which rejected DEMINGS, well it's FL

Racial progress hasn't been made with red state white females sufficiently but it has been made with Blue states, obviously, white females vote R like their hubbies due to Evangelicalism but I went on job interviews and when they are the hiring manager at white collar jobs they reject blk men, mostly blk women are hiring managers at blue collar jobs like Walmart because it's easy to have a College Degree and become a store manager unlike a law firm

That's the disconnect with white females that voted for Vance and voted for CCM racial polarization, I have said this many times white females put Vance, Sununu and DeSamtis in and put Warnock, Kelly, Fetterman in

But if Gay marriage would of passed before Eday and Griner Warnock improved on his white female polls Johnson and Vance would of lost they were the weak links but Hagan as a white female beat Dole not Tillis

White females it's acceptable to be Lesbian but not gay due to sports and men in entertainment are rich, that's why Griner is accepted by Curry and LeBron straight men, look at Queen Latina she is acceptable by Will Smith another straight male

Stein is gonna win based on SSM because Transgender Bill was unpopular in 2020 that's how Cooper got Elected

SSM is accepted by most but being Lesbian is theore acceptable preference that's why Sinema is running as an Indy instead of a D it's harder for Gallego to run due to split votes and will back off and Baldwin beat Thompson

That's why GALLEGO hasn't got in yet because if he loses his career is over like Tim RYAN