Does NaPoVoInterCo have a shot this decade?

[ProgressiveModerate]

For anyone who doesn’t know, this is basically a compact states can join where states pledge their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote once states totaling 270 or more EVs join. Talk about this has kinda gone silent for a while.

Currently states totaling 195 EVs have joined (CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA). In all of these states, it seems unlikely Rs will gain the power to reverse it anytime soon.

Some possibilities for the future:

Maine - Tricky given their pride towards their unique district allocation, but after 2022 Dems actually won decent majorities in both chambers and obv the governorship. Think it already failed here before, but they can try again.

Minnesota - Dems narrowly hood a trifecta post 2022, but I think they’d have to expand it by a bit to actually pass

Michigan - Same story in MN; any single Dem in the lower chamber not supporting it is a liability, but the state House will be up in 2024

Nevada - It would’ve passed but for Sisolak’s veto. Under next D Gov it should pass (assuming Dems hold the legislature which is likely given their insane geography edge).

Virginia - Good chance the Governorship and state House of delegates flip back in 2025, with Dems holdings decent majority in both legislative chambers (and tbh basically all “conservadems” from VA are a thing of the past).

PA and AZ if Dems gain a trifecta come 2024.

This would total 273 EVs, but it’d require a lot to go right for Ds. However tbf, a lot of these results are correlated. For instance if they’re winning a trifecta in PA come 2024, good chance they’re also getting a trifecta in AZ.

The only other possible place I could think of would be NH or AK, but neither are needed. I think it’ll be a while before Dems gain a trifecta in GA as the state Senate gerrymander by Rs is extremely effective, and NC, FL, and TX seem off the table for obvious reasons (at least for now). By these calculations the soonest it could realistically happen if everything here goes Dems way would be 2025 cause that’s the next time VA Gov is up.

If Dems ever do gain a trifecta in TX though, it makes their path relatively easy assuming they hold their current states. I honestly think the importance of dems getting power and being able to win statewide win TX is important and can’t be understated for the reason it would undo so many of the GOPs structural advantages from gerrymandering congressional districts to the EC bias caused by TX and FL both being narrowly R to a chance at the EC being eliminated.

What y’all think?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I see someone's a CGP Grey viewer.

[Skill and Chance]

The current SCOTUS will almost surely rule that it's invalid unless directly approved by Congress.  At this point, the better bet for anti-EC reformers is to hope for a future liberal majority SCOTUS to rule that WTA-by-state EV allocation violates the 14th/15th Amendments. 

[Torie]

How would this compact be enforced? Suppose the Pub candidate wins one of the compact states and absent the compact a majority of the electors but the Dem gets a plurality of the vote? Getting rid of the EC requires a Constitutional amendment so it is not happening.

[Tintrlvr]

How would this compact be enforced? Suppose the Pub candidate wins one of the compact states and absent the compact a majority of the electors but the Dem gets a plurality of the vote? Getting rid of the EC requires a Constitutional amendment so it is not happening.

The change in state law changes how electors within that state are elected. In states that have passed the Compact, if the Compact is enacted in enough states to achieve 270 EVs, the state's electors are allocated to the winner of the national popular vote as a matter of law. That is, the slate of electors pledged to the national popular vote winner is appointed, regardless of the result in that state, as a matter of law. So there's no enforcement, really, but also no more need for enforcement than there is under the existing system. It's not that the electors are bound in a particular way, it's that only one slate of electors is elected, the slate corresponding to the national popular vote winner.

[Sol]

How would this compact be enforced? Suppose the Pub candidate wins one of the compact states and absent the compact a majority of the electors but the Dem gets a plurality of the vote? Getting rid of the EC requires a Constitutional amendment so it is not happening.

Yeah ultimately I think that opponents of the Electoral College are better off going the Constitutional Amendment route. There's a very strong chance IMO of it getting struck down by a right-wing SCOTUS no matter what. Frankly you need an amendment to make it stick anyway.

It has a real vibe of "remove the Electoral College with one weird trick."

[S019]

There may be a ballot initiative in Michigan for it in 2024

[ProgressiveModerate]

How would this compact be enforced? Suppose the Pub candidate wins one of the compact states and absent the compact a majority of the electors but the Dem gets a plurality of the vote? Getting rid of the EC requires a Constitutional amendment so it is not happening.

Yeah ultimately I think that opponents of the Electoral College are better off going the Constitutional Amendment route. There's a very strong chance IMO of it getting struck down by a right-wing SCOTUS no matter what. Frankly you need an amendment to make it stick anyway.

It has a real vibe of "remove the Electoral College with one weird trick."

But like how? States are allowed to pledge their electors as they choose, I'm not sure where the argument would come from.

There's also no guarantee by the end of the decade the SCOTUS composition will be as conservative as it is now. SCOTUS justices are relatively old and death can happen very suddenly.

One thing I do worry about is if the Senate and President are of opposite party for an extended period of time, could a vacancy (or vacancies) just go unfilled for years? I feel like eventually a deal would have to be reached but given how greedy the parties are about this stuff idk.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There may be a ballot initiative in Michigan for it in 2024

I would think MI Ds would sooner pass it into law rather than wait for it to pass via referendum.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So hypothetically if an R were to win the popular vote would they technically have flipped California and NY red assuming this were to pass?

[ProgressiveModerate]

So hypothetically if an R were to win the popular vote would they technically have flipped California and NY red assuming this were to pass?

Dems would’ve still won more raw votes in NY and CA, but their electoral votes would be given to Republicans. Depends upon if the election community would define “winning” a state as winning the most votes in said state or winning that states EVs.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So hypothetically if an R were to win the popular vote would they technically have flipped California and NY red assuming this were to pass?

Dems would’ve still won more raw votes in NY and CA, but their electoral votes would be given to Republicans. Depends upon if the election community would define “winning” a state as winning the most votes in said state or winning that states EVs.

Our national elections are determined by EV, not popular vote so I think you could make a case for winning the electoral votes of a state as winning the state. Will be an interesting debate if we get to it.

[Torie]

It the GOP loses control of TX, it has no path anyway to 270 electoral votes.

Suppose in 2032 the tables turn, and the GOP looks like it has a lock on the popular vote, but the Dems are likely to win the electoral college. What is to prevent CA in Jan of 2032 from repealing its law joining the compact?

[Ferguson97]

So hypothetically if an R were to win the popular vote would they technically have flipped California and NY red assuming this were to pass?

Yes.

Incredibly funny outcome would be if this thing passes, and then in the next presidential election the Republicans win the popular vote and would have lost the electoral college too if not for the NPVIC.

I wonder if we could theoretically see a Republican win all 538 electoral votes in this scenario.