Edwards' impact

[millwx]

It remains to be seen whether this data will hold and what, if any, impact the selection of John Edwards as VP candidate will have.  But the only available poll we have (not TERRIBLY recent, but not too old either) shows the following...

AP/IPSOS Jun 7-9:
 Bush 46%  Kerry 45%
 Bush/Cheney 44%  Kerry/Edwards 47%

Effectively, 2% abandons Bush and goes to Kerry, for a 4% swing.  This poll contains Nader as well... receiving 6% in both cases.  Of course, we all know about the Mason-Dixon poll in NC which showed the race tighten there with Edwards.  But that's the only state race I know of that's been polled with the VP option on it.

Regardless of your affiliation or opinions, it'll certainly be interesting to see the poll coming out containing data after July 5th!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think Edwards is about a 2% permanent boost to Kerry's nationwide numbers.  It will be more in some states than others...among states that matter, probably more in the Midwest, less in the Southwest.   Effectively, all the Midwestern toss-up states now become Lean Kerry.

No other Democrat would have brought a percentible gain to Kerry's nationwide numbers... although McCain would have boosted him by 6-8%.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think Edwards is about a 2% permanent boost to Kerry's nationwide numbers.  It will be more in some states than others...among states that matter, probably more in the Midwest, less in the Southwest.   Effectively, all the Midwestern toss-up states now become Lean Kerry.

No other Democrat would have brought a percentible gain to Kerry's nationwide numbers... although McCain would have boosted him by 6-8%.

Let's hope western PA is included in that "midwest" total.  Pennsylvania would now be a lock for Kerry!

[ATFFL]

I expect Edwards already built into the polls to a degree, especially here in NC where the local news has been talking as if he was the choice for the past month.

The further you get from NC the less built in he is.

His long term impact depends on what labels end up sticking to him in the campaign.  If the Republicans can paint him as a young, inexperienced, liberal trial lawyer who was going to lose his Senate re-election he can be ab albatross in Novenmber.  If kerry paints him as an energetic, charismatic moderate with a record of caring for the common man he can bring some mid-west states with him.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think Edwards is about a 2% permanent boost to Kerry's nationwide numbers.  It will be more in some states than others...among states that matter, probably more in the Midwest, less in the Southwest.   Effectively, all the Midwestern toss-up states now become Lean Kerry.

No other Democrat would have brought a percentible gain to Kerry's nationwide numbers... although McCain would have boosted him by 6-8%.

Let's hope western PA is included in that "midwest" total.  Pennsylvania would now be a lock for Kerry!

On MSNBC this morning, they repeatedly made the pont that Kerry could be locking down PA early by making the announcement in Pittsburgh, right on the heels of Rendell pushing through a big property tax cut.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think Edwards is about a 2% permanent boost to Kerry's nationwide numbers.  It will be more in some states than others...among states that matter, probably more in the Midwest, less in the Southwest.   Effectively, all the Midwestern toss-up states now become Lean Kerry.

No other Democrat would have brought a percentible gain to Kerry's nationwide numbers... although McCain would have boosted him by 6-8%.

Let's hope western PA is included in that "midwest" total.  Pennsylvania would now be a lock for Kerry!

On MSNBC this morning, they repeatedly made the pont that Kerry could be locking down PA early by making the announcement in Pittsburgh, right on the heels of Rendell pushing through a big property tax cut.

Yep, this has been a good thing for the Democrats in PA.  Our party has been getting battered here especially in Philly because of an incompetent, racist mayor.  I'm thinking the tides of the mayoral election of '03 have turned.  KP, WATCH OUT!!  Melissa Brown will have some answering to do.

[millwx]

I expect Edwards already built into the polls to a degree, especially here in NC where the local news has been talking as if he was the choice for the past month.

The only "proof" (the AP/IPSOS poll and the Mason-Dixon NC poll) shows otherwise.  That is, they do show a measurable difference when inserting VPs (Edwards and Cheney) into the question.  Note also that the AP/IPSOS poll, with its 1% Bush lead without Veeps was in pretty excellent agreement with other polls... showing Bush slightly ahead.  So, by all indications, this selection is not factored into any polls.  I'm not arguing that any impact will "stick"... esp. for four long months until election day.  But, nonetheless, the impact isn't in the current polls.

[ATFFL]

I expect Edwards already built into the polls to a degree, especially here in NC where the local news has been talking as if he was the choice for the past month.

The only "proof" (the AP/IPSOS poll and the Mason-Dixon NC poll) shows otherwise.  That is, they do show a measurable difference when inserting VPs (Edwards and Cheney) into the question.  Note also that the AP/IPSOS poll, with its 1% Bush lead without Veeps was in pretty excellent agreement with other polls... showing Bush slightly ahead.  So, by all indications, this selection is not factored into any polls.  I'm not arguing that any impact will "stick"... esp. for four long months until election day.  But, nonetheless, the impact isn't in the current polls.

That's why I say "to a degree".  A VP choice can lead to a 5% or so bump.  I don't expect to see anything so large.  2-3% in most areas, less in NC and maybe VA.

A smart move on the Kerry campaigns part was to avoid any appearance with Edwards for a while.  By making appearing with Vilsack and others it took some of the attention off Edwards, making the obvious pick more of a surprise pick than it is.

I also wonder if it was a good idea to announce so early.  This is one of, if not the, earliest announcements of a VP choice in modern times.  It usally comes much closer to the convention.  It will be interesting to see what Edwards does for the next month and bow the BC campaign responds.

EDIT: One very positive I expect for Kerry is a firming up of his support.  I would expect mroe people to be voting for a Kerry/Edwards ticket than they were for a Kerry ticket without a VP.

[ilikeverin]

If kerry paints him as an energetic, charismatic moderate with a record of caring for the common man he can bring some mid-west states with him.

That would resonate with 'Minnesota Nice'

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I also wonder if it was a good idea to announce so early.  This is one of, if not the, earliest announcements of a VP choice in modern times.  It usally comes much closer to the convention.

I wouldn't say three weeks before the convention is all that early. It just seems early because of the early Dem convention. Unless the campaign finance rules change between now and 2008, I don't expect we'll see either party hold their convention in July next time.

As I was adjusting my prediction to take account of the pick of Edwards, I realized that Edwards gives Kerry an extra boost in Florida because of how he affects the age demographic of voters, making the average likely voter younger.  Bush has been pushing the embargo on Cuba to woo the Cuban-American vote, but the younger ones see themselves more as Cuban-American and aren't as virulently anti-Castro, perhaps because they know they will outlive Fidel.  It took adding in that effect in addition to the generic Edwards bounce for me to change my prediction for Florida from a Bush tossup to a Kerry tossup.

[sunnyd1182]

I'm not worried about Edwards' impact at all, at least in the long term. He'll provide a huge boost for the rest of this month, and probably through the convention, but that will soon revert back to normal after the Republican convention.

On top of that, all the GOP needs to do is paint this ticket out to be a "far left liberal ticket" and it'll isolate the independents. I mean think about it- you've got the only 2 guys in congress who were as liberal as Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton. That'll DEFINITELY strengthen the far left support of Kerry, along with hardcore Democrats; but this is something that should have taken place already.

The real loss for this ticket is going to be in the center, where the Republicans can make a serious gain during the convention. They've got Arnold, Giuliani, McCain, and even Democrat Zell Miller speaking. If people tune in to that or follow it on the news, that would cater far more to moderates than the Democrats are doing with a Kerry/Edwards ticket (that and the fact that the DNC's schedule doesn't look anywhere near as diverse/moderate).

[ilikeverin]

On top of that, all the GOP needs to do is paint this ticket out to be a "far left liberal ticket" and it'll isolate the independents. I mean think about it- you've got the only 2 guys in congress who were as liberal as Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton.

Boy, you just lap up that Republican propaganda.

[ATFFL]

 Edwards is a trial lawyer.  Look what happened to the last trial lawyer who ran in FL.  I don't see much help from Edwards there.  He can help in the rust belt though.

ALso, this is the earliest VP announcement in reent memory.  It may not seem early, but it is in historical terms.  It could prove a mistake as there is now no suspense heading in to the convention.

[agcatter]

I hate to interrupt this little Democratic wet dream regarding Edwards as VP, but fact is, the campaign hasn't even started yet.  The VP choice is a temporary bump for the nominee.  Nothing more and nothing less.  People vote for their Presidential preference in the end.  It's always been that way.

Outside of LBJ's giving Kennedy Texas and one or two southern states in 1960, no VP has ever made a difference in the results of a presidential election.

And, if Edwards can't deliver any southern states being himself from the South (he won't, trust me) where exactly is he going to deliver electoral votes?  The answer is nowhere.

Sorry guys, it's going to have to fall on Kerry himself to deliver - a prospect that makes a lot of Dems less than optimistic.

[© tweed]

Outside of LBJ's giving Kennedy Texas and one or two southern states in 1960, no VP has ever made a difference in the results of a presidential election.

Lieberman came 269 votes from doing just that in 2000.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Outside of LBJ's giving Kennedy Texas and one or two southern states in 1960, no VP has ever made a difference in the results of a presidential election.

Lieberman came 269 votes from doing just that in 2000.

I don't think this is true...Lieberman in the end was not a very good VP candidate.  He simply was unwilling to win his debate with Cheney, and never gave a convincing reason why voters should support the principles of the Democratic party.  

Lieberman probably helped Gore in Florida, but a candidate who was more charismatic and in sync with Gore's campaign message would have performed better in the midwest and nationwide.

[© tweed]

NickG,

Who do you think Gore should have picked?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

NickG,

Who do you think Gore should have picked?

Maybe Russ Feingold?  Or even Paul Wellstone.  I know he strongly considered Edwards, but he might have been too inexperienced at that point.

[© tweed]

Feingold and Wellstone would have ensured Gore win in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota.  But it ended up that Gore won those anyway.

If he went with one of those two he would have lost Florida by 2-3%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Feingold and Wellstone would have ensured Gore win in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota.  But it ended up that Gore won those anyway.

If he went with one of those two he would have lost Florida by 2-3%.

You're probably right about Florida.  But I think Gore could have won Ohio by picking one of those two combined with NOT giving up on the state by pulling his ads.

This is all in hindsight of course.  I wasn't critical of the Lieberman pick when it was first made.  Its weakness was only apparent after (1) the VP debate and (2) Gore unveiled his (very successful) "people vs. the powerful" message at the convention, which Lieberman didn't mesh well with.

[© tweed]

Lets not hope we're having this discussion four years from now about Edwards.  

[ThePrezMex]

Feingold and Wellstone would have ensured Gore win in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota.  But it ended up that Gore won those anyway.

If he went with one of those two he would have lost Florida by 2-3%.

I have a question: The rationale for saying that Lieberman helped in Florida is because he is jewish or because he is conservative? Because if it was the first one, then Feingold is jewish and Wellstone was, so they would have helped in the same way. Of course is a different story if it was because of his coservatism.

[© tweed]

I have a question: The rationale for saying that Lieberman helped in Florida is because he is jewish or because he is conservative? Because if it was the first one, then Feingold is jewish and Wellstone was, so they would have helped in the same way. Of course is a different story if it was because of his coservatism.

I can't explain it, I think Lieberman helped more in FLA than Wellstone would have.