Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Skill and Chance]

If only MS could have a Beshear situation. I know it's a heavy lift but man, Reeves is just awful.

It's not crazy.  They have a traditional runoff for governor now, and that seems to favor Dems in today's world.  It's in the state constitution that the winner has to have a majority, so they can't just repeal it on the fly if Warnock wins by 10 tomorrow.

[Skill and Chance]

If only MS could have a Beshear situation. I know it's a heavy lift but man, Reeves is just awful.

It's not crazy.  They have a traditional runoff for governor now, and that seems to favor Dems in today's world.  It's in the state constitution that the winner has to have a majority, so they can't just repeal it on the fly if Warnock wins by 10 tomorrow.

Do they still have that strange electoral college-like system or does this replace that?

This replaces it.  The amendment passed in the 2020 election.

[Skill and Chance]

This race has way more upset potential than many on here seem to think. I'm expecting a low-/mid-single-digit race at this point, and it is winnable for Pressley.

It's funny because I think Beshear is overrated in KY while Pressley is underrated in MS and a KY-R/MS-D split is not completely out of the question.

Pressley is much more palatable to Republican-leaning/culturally conservative voters than Beshear, and Cameron is less tainted than Reeves. Reeves is precisely the kind of politician people will throw out the moment they're actually given an alternative they can stomach.

I do get the sense that Beshear has been behaving too much like Generic D and may have gotten overconfident after the pro-life referendum failed.

[Skill and Chance]

Fundamentally, what distinguishes Presley from Hood?  As a longtime incumbent, did Hood come off as "too establishment"?  I also see some comments upthread that Hood's sincerity as a social conservative was in doubt? 

[Skill and Chance]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

[Skill and Chance]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters. 

[Skill and Chance]

It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters.  

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

Eh, LA does a lot of mail though, while MS doesn't, so not really a good comparison imo

If a similar percentage votes by mail as 2019, this means that MS turnout is 70% of 2019. Louisiana turnout ended around 70% of 2019 iirc.

It probably won't be a similar percentage, because 2019 was before Trump told all of his supporters that voting by mail is evil.

There was also a COVID bounce though, and there might still be a long-term effect by those who gained the habit of voting by mail.

Unlike most states, MS never expanded VBM (or in-person EV, for that matter) during COVID.