Mississippi Megathread 2023

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"Very likely" R, bordering on Safe. I doubt he gets within 10 points, even though is he likely the Democrats' best choice.

How about Transportation Commissioner Willie Simmons?

He would do much worse, just getting the standard Democratic baseline.

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Doesn't look like McDaniel is running up the score enough in Desoto to have a shot

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Doesn't look like McDaniel is running up the score enough in Desoto to have a shot

Is that where he's from?

No, but it's Tea Party central, or whatever the 2023 equivalent of that would be.

McDaniel is (ironically?) from Jones County.

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Hosemann now barely over 50.

With most of Desoto in, but barely any of the tri-county area (Hinds, Madison, Rankin).

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Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Why do you feel that way? I'm not seeing or hearing any evidence of that.

I'm sticking with my prediction of Reeves winning by 8 or so (maybe 7 thanks to anti-vax deaths), which is still a good performance from a Mississippi Democrat, but I feel like there would be some kind of a buzz out there if Pressley were going to win. Nobody I interact with in real life seems to be even aware that a governor election is happening, at least no one is talking about it.

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Who would a runoff favor?

Presumably Reeves, but honestly who knows. There's no precedent here. Also I think it's extremely unlikely that we'll see a runoff, given how few votes 3rd party candidates get in Mississippi.

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Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Why do you feel that way? I'm not seeing or hearing any evidence of that.

I'm sticking with my prediction of Reeves winning by 8 or so (maybe 7 thanks to anti-vax deaths), which is still a good performance from a Mississippi Democrat, but I feel like there would be some kind of a buzz out there if Pressley were going to win. Nobody I interact with in real life seems to be even aware that a governor election is happening, at least no one is talking about it.

There has been; there's been numerous articles about it in the last few weeks, Presley has raised more, and Cook even moved it to Lean R. There's been plenty of buzz.

I mean buzz in the state, not just random national articles. I don't see any billboards or bumper stickers for anybody, very few signs, nobody talking about it in person, and if I didn't watch football, I wouldn't see any ads either (by the way both candidates' ads are super cringy), and if I wasn't someone who follows politics, I might not even know there was an election next Tuesday. You could say that a low attention low turnout race is good for Presley, and maybe it helps, but I suspect a world in which he wins would have a different "feel" to it. Maybe I'm wrong.

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It's happening?!  Beshear and Reeves both lose?

Remember, MS has practically no early voting at all, so whatever did go down in that debate, the news still has time to reach 95% of voters.  

From what I’m seeing MS mail-in turnout is 70% of 2019, similar to Louisiana. It is still unclear who the low turnout benefits.

Eh, LA does a lot of mail though, while MS doesn't, so not really a good comparison imo

If a similar percentage votes by mail as 2019, this means that MS turnout is 70% of 2019. Louisiana turnout ended around 70% of 2019 iirc.

It probably won't be a similar percentage, because 2019 was before Trump told all of his supporters that voting by mail is evil.

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Three things to watch for as tomorrow's results come in:

• Black turnout, in particular Hinds County - Presley needs this to come through massively, say with Hinds at 87-90% of the combined Rankin and Madison turnout, not like 80% or less, and also good numbers in the Delta
• Turnout of the "flag people" - A lot of them feel like Reeves betrayed them by allowing the flag to change in the George Floyd aftermath. This will be harder to recognize, but if turnout looks low in George and Greene Counties (those are very small counties, but they're the only two that voted against the new flag), it might be a sign that the flag hopium may be real.
• Margin in suburban Madison, Rankin, and DeSoto Counties - Hood did well in all 3 of these, even winning Madison, but Presley is going to have to do even better to have a real shot.

I think Presley needs to hit on all 3 of these to win, or maybe do really well on 2 of them and have the third be a wash.

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I think once Hinds and any stragglers come in, it basically ends up being the same margin (% and raw votes) as 2019. Another good Democratic performance, just not good enough.

Ultimately, Mississippi is just too Republican of a state for a Democrat to win unless the Republican candidate is unusually awful, and Reeves is not that. I think that will probably change some over the next 10-20 years, though, and I hope the national party sees it as a medium-term goal for a future flip.

2008 - Virginia and Colorado
2020 - Arizona and Georgia
2032? - Mississippi? Kansas?

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I'll echo that the D nomination in 27 is either Presley again or some rando sacrificial lamb who struggles to break 40.

The R nomination could be a real fight, with Fitch, White, Hosemann (maybe), and possibly Watson all going for it, as well as Robert "kill transgender people" Foster.

My way, WAY too early rating for a Presley vs. Fitch race is Lean R, but who knows what kind of national environment we'll have then.

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I put together this map of the change in total margin from 2019 to 2023, using the standard Atlas colors. It's only based on what the NYT has out there right now, so this won't be the final numbers, but probably close.

Hood lost in 2019 by 45,028 votes. Presley narrowed that margin down to 35,808. The biggest changes on the map include:

• Reeves took back Madison County and gained +2,000.
• Presley did well in Hinds, but it looks like turnout was lower so he didn't gain as much. (We'll see if additional votes change that result.
• Reeves increased his margin in the majority black counties generally, with a few exceptions
• Presley closed the gap some on the Coast, Northeast, and DeSoto, but it wasn't enough.
• Lafayette County was probably Presley's biggest oof. Chickasaw is Hood's home county.

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I've always wondered how Roy Moore vs Doug Jones would have turned out in Mississippi. One hand, its a less red state so Jones could do better. But its also much more racially polarized than Alabama, perhaps helping Moore?

It is? I've never noticed that.