Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Progressive Pessimist]

He is the best (and possibly only) candidate Mississippi Democrats could put up, but it won't matter. At best he probably comes close to Jim Hood's margin.

I don't even think that Reeves' supposed unpopularity matters either.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Reeves isn't losing. The margin will be the only interesting aspect of this election. A loss closer than 2019 would be pretty close to a moral victory.

Friendly reminder that the clowns at Cook never moved NJ out of Safe D in 2021. That honestly caused me to think so much less of them, especially given how generous they usually are in terms of putting races on the board.

That said, I do think this change is justified.

To be fair, Murphy was consistently getting 51% in the polls, he just never exceeded it, certainly not in the actual election when undecideds skewed heavily for Ciatarelli.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrat internals cant get Presley over 46%, its toast. If Presley wins its one of the biggest upsets ever, and this no where seems like the state, cycle, or the guy to do it

I'm there with you. I just don't see Presley getting more than the typical 46% for a Democrat in the state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Anyway, we're one-and-a-half weeks out from election day and I get the sense that the wind is blowing at Presley's back.  I suspect Reeves will finish under the 51.9% he got in 2019, still unclear whether that's enough to force a runoff or actually get Presley elected, though. 

Ugggggh, I really want Presley to win.  It's about time we had a Tupelo/Mississippi State governor!

Color me surprised that you support Presley.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I had Reeves+5 as well, and called that Presley would only do marginally better than Hood.

This cycle has been my nost accurate ever when it comes to predictions, I think! I was furthest off in my own state, actually.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I really think a Beto or Warnock like figure could win MS if it was an open year. 47% in an off year election is impressive, considering the incumbent president is a Democrat. When Hood got the same result 4 years ago, it was seen as Trump backlash.

Presley was probably the best candidate possible for MS, I don’t think a “Beto or Warnock” would win if he couldn’t. Especially a “Beto,” who never won a statewide election…

Do you think Presley would have been better running four years ago instead of Hood against a non-incumbent Reeves?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Should be noted that Siena, which is a high quality pollster, actually severely botched this race. Their poll was from August, which you could argue was before Presley's "momentum", but still had Reeves +11, severely off from the final result.

Yet that was the poll that caused so much hysteria for the presidential race.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Split Ticket estimates Presley likely won the black vote 96-2

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1729158900463845540

But Louisiana! Rural blacks are shifting right!