Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Frodo]

Look at numbers: in Alabama only 1 white Democratic state Senator remains (and 2 white state representatives) - all from majority Black districts AFAIK... The same (approximately) will be in Mississippi, where most remaining white Democrats retire this year (and one - switched to Indie in this term, and now - running as a Republican, despite generally centrist voting for years). Only slightly better - in Louisiana.

I didn't think the Mississippi Democratic Party had that much further to fall, but apparently you think they haven't hit rock bottom yet.  

So how much larger do you think the Republican majority in the Mississippi legislature will be after this November?  Here is the current breakdown:

Mississippi Senate:

Republicans: 36
Democrats: 16

Mississippi House:

Republicans: 76
Democrats: 42
independents: 3
vacant: 1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Look at numbers: in Alabama only 1 white Democratic state Senator remains (and 2 white state representatives) - all from majority Black districts AFAIK... The same (approximately) will be in Mississippi, where most remaining white Democrats retire this year (and one - switched to Indie in this term, and now - running as a Republican, despite generally centrist voting for years). Only slightly better - in Louisiana.

I didn't think the Mississippi Democratic Party had that much further to fall, but apparently you think they haven't hit rock bottom yet.  

So how much larger do you think the Republican majority in the Mississippi legislature will be after this November?  Here is the current breakdown:

Mississippi Senate:

Republicans: 36
Democrats: 16

Mississippi House:

Republicans: 76
Democrats: 42
independents: 3
vacant: 1

RS are Conserv on Guns in the Deep South but Brad Presley and Andy Beshear can reach out to Gun Crowd

But D's are banning guns is close the gun show loopholes, ban assault and conceal carry but Clarence Thomas has opened the Gun show loopholes without Fed Legislation

[Duke of York]

Look at numbers: in Alabama only 1 white Democratic state Senator remains (and 2 white state representatives) - all from majority Black districts AFAIK... The same (approximately) will be in Mississippi, where most remaining white Democrats retire this year (and one - switched to Indie in this term, and now - running as a Republican, despite generally centrist voting for years). Only slightly better - in Louisiana.

I didn't think the Mississippi Democratic Party had that much further to fall, but apparently you think they haven't hit rock bottom yet.  

So how much larger do you think the Republican majority in the Mississippi legislature will be after this November?  Here is the current breakdown:

Mississippi Senate:

Republicans: 36
Democrats: 16

Mississippi House:

Republicans: 76
Democrats: 42
independents: 3
vacant: 1

with so many of them unopposed and winning the majority by default if i was  Republican chair of the Mississippi party I would tell people to leave the state legislative election in their district blank and for not even the candidate themselves to cast a ballot in that election so they get zero votes and a special election is held.

No one should run unopposed in a general election.

[smoltchanov]

Look at numbers: in Alabama only 1 white Democratic state Senator remains (and 2 white state representatives) - all from majority Black districts AFAIK... The same (approximately) will be in Mississippi, where most remaining white Democrats retire this year (and one - switched to Indie in this term, and now - running as a Republican, despite generally centrist voting for years). Only slightly better - in Louisiana.

I didn't think the Mississippi Democratic Party had that much further to fall, but apparently you think they haven't hit rock bottom yet.  

So how much larger do you think the Republican majority in the Mississippi legislature will be after this November?  Here is the current breakdown:

Mississippi Senate:

Republicans: 36
Democrats: 16

Mississippi House:

Republicans: 76
Democrats: 42
independents: 3
vacant: 1

Not so much difference. but - modest gains for Republicans. 37-38 seats in Senate, about 80-82 - in House. All other seats are majority Black, and most - utterly safe for Democrats (Republicans don't even run candidates in most of them). Republican gains in the last 15 years were mostly in "white seats", or because of party switches among conservatively-inclined incumbents. They will win some of such remaining seats this time, but - it will be the last such time, because there are almost no such Democratic-held districts anymore...

[wbrocks67]

Tulchin Research has Pressley +4 over Reeves, 47-43

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/02/13/tate-reeves-brandon-presley-governor-welfare/

[smoltchanov]

Tulchin Research has Pressley +4 over Reeves, 47-43

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/02/13/tate-reeves-brandon-presley-governor-welfare/

The problem may be that 10 remaining percentages are, most likely, disappointed Republicans (from Waller camp in 2019), most of which will, after all, vote for Republican candidate (similar to Oklahoma polls of 2022). But 47 is good enough percentage for Pressley... Well, economic populist AND social conservative (Bilbo-type without Bilbo's racism) could still be relatively popular in Mississippi...

[ListMan38]

1. Anything can happen in 9 months
2. To my understanding not many Rs like Governor Peter Griffin so that's likely why he's underperforming
3. I literally go to Ole Miss at this point (in MS bellwether Lafayette County), and I have seen basically nothing for Presley at this point


Don't count your chickens before they hatch, Atlas Dems

[smoltchanov]

1. Anything can happen in 9 months
2. To my understanding not many Rs like Governor Peter Griffin so that's likely why he's underperforming
3. I literally go to Ole Miss at this point (in MS bellwether Lafayette County), and I have seen basically nothing for Presley at this point


Don't count your chickens before they hatch, Atlas Dems

Well, Pressley only announced few weeks ago, and he has little to worry about primary, so he still has time. And, AFAIK - he is rather conservative on many social issues: if so he is NOT the type which will be very popular among the students...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Can't wait for Gov Elect Presley

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Tate Reeves’ response to the tornado ravaging MS will likely help him win like Rick Scott’s response to Hurricane Michael helped him win the 2018 senate election like DeSantis’ response to Hurricane Ian helped win against Charlie Crist

Why are you sure that Tate Reeves’ response to the tornado ravaging MS will likely help him win like Rick Scott’s response to Hurricane Michael helped him win the 2018 senate election like DeSantis’ response to Hurricane Ian helped win against Charlie Crist?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We weren't gonna sweep them anyways the RS supposed to sweep and Beshear handled Tornado's the same way as Reeves but it's still time for Presley and Wilson to win

[UWS]

Tate Reeves’ response to the tornado ravaging MS will likely help him win like Rick Scott’s response to Hurricane Michael helped him win the 2018 senate election like DeSantis’ response to Hurricane Ian helped win against Charlie Crist

Why are you sure that Tate Reeves’ response to the tornado ravaging MS will likely help him win like Rick Scott’s response to Hurricane Michael helped him win the 2018 senate election like DeSantis’ response to Hurricane Ian helped win against Charlie Crist?

https://thebaptistpaper.org/complete-devastation-ms-disaster-relief-assessing-tornado-cleanup-in-hard-hit-areas/

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2023/03/27/mississippi-legislature-money-will-be-coming-for-tornado-victims/70051900007/
What is the use to copy/taste my words

[I’m not Stu]

Hosemann probably loses Jones County (McDaniel's home county) and/or Greene County in the primary for lieutenant governor, but easily wins renomination.

[Tmau]

Hosemann probably loses Jones County (McDaniel's home county) and/or Greene County in the primary for lieutenant governor, but easily wins renomination.

I could also see Lamar and George counties going for McDaniel

[I’m not Stu]

Hosemann probably loses Jones County (McDaniel's home county) and/or Greene County in the primary for lieutenant governor, but easily wins renomination.

I could also see Lamar and George counties going for McDaniel

Yes. I wonder if Tate Reeves will lose any of them, even though he has no serious primary challengers.

[Tmau]

Hosemann probably loses Jones County (McDaniel's home county) and/or Greene County in the primary for lieutenant governor, but easily wins renomination.

I could also see Lamar and George counties going for McDaniel

Yes. I wonder if Tate Reeves will lose any of them, even though he has no serious primary challengers.

No. Reeves will win every county. Witcher has no name recognition.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hosemann probably loses Jones County (McDaniel's home county) and/or Greene County in the primary for lieutenant governor, but easily wins renomination.

I could also see Lamar and George counties going for McDaniel

Yes. I wonder if Tate Reeves will lose any of them, even though he has no serious primary challengers.

No. Reeves will win every county. Witcher has no name recognition.
[/quote

It's not October and as always we still have to vote Biden is cruising to reelection it's gonna have reprcautions in every race

[I’m not Stu]

Democrats should vote in the GOP primary for lieutenant governor for Hosemann. In 2014, Chris McDaniel was supported by former Silver Dollar Group (a secret KKK group) member Lane “LC” Murray.

[Del Tachi]

In non-gubernatorial news, the Mississippi Supreme Court has disqualified former Trump staffer Mandy Gunasekara from appearing on the ballot for the northern Public Service Commission district (i.e., Presley's current seat), saying she doesn't meet state residency requirements.  She apparently voted in a DC municipal election as recently as 2018, and state law requires candidates for PSC to have lived in MS continuously for at least the most recent 5 years.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://mississippitoday.org/2023/06/12/delbert-hosemann-chris-mcdaniel-primary-poll/

A new Mississippi Today/Siena College poll shows incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann with a substantial lead over challenger Chris McDaniel ahead of the Aug. 8 primary, but Hosemann doesn’t crack 50% and many remain undecided.

The poll of respondents who are likely to vote in the 2023 GOP primary showed Hosemann with 47% support and McDaniel with 32%. But 21% said they don’t know who they’ll vote for or declined to answer.

Poll conducted with with 646 registered voters between June 4-7, 2023. Margin of error +/- 4.8%.

[gerritcole]

what happened to phillip gunn's candidacy

[wbrocks67]

This seems significant?

Siena polled MS's GOP Primary voters, and 21% of them said they would vote for Presley in the GE. Would that be enough?

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23846468/ms-todaysiena-governor-06-23.pdf

[Pollster]

This seems significant?

Siena polled MS's GOP Primary voters, and 21% of them said they would vote for Presley in the GE. Would that be enough?

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23846468/ms-todaysiena-governor-06-23.pdf

Primaries in Mississippi are open, and it looks like Presley's support here is coming almost exclusively from self-ID independent/other voters (Democrat was not an option), non-white voters (18% of this sample - huge for a deep south Republican primary), and from Bennie Thompson's district. Given that there is recent history of high non-Republican participation in Mississippi GOP primaries and there being no seriously contested statewide Dem primaries this cycle, I'd say this is generally pretty believable given the players involved.

It's certainly an impressive number and implies that Presley is building up some serious strength but it's probably exaggerating his crossover appeal right now.

[Frodo]

Jim Crow remains alive in Mississippi thanks to the Supreme Court:

Supreme Court rejects challenge to Jim Crow-era Mississippi voting law
The state constitutional amendment from 1890 was intended to disproportionately remove voting rights from Black people convicted of certain crimes.


source: the Clarion-Ledger

[Dr. MB]

https://twitter.com/rrhelections/status/1685725468928987136?s=46&t=ER5aNLhiF...