Progressive Moderate Fair National Map

[ProgressiveModerate]

The goal of this project is pretty self-explanatory; to create fair congressional maps for each individual state and compile them into one national map.

My only 3 hard rules are that districts must be contiguous (except for like water stuff), deviations should be within 1000 either way, and no precinct splitting.

My primary goal is to draw districts that represent clear COIs, but city/county splits, compactness, and racial protections will also be considered.

One factor I'm not considering is partisan fairness. My hope is overall, by using these neutral metrics, partisan fairness will be achieved nationally, but I am not going to make proactive efforts to overcome bad geography in certain states.

I'll be starting with the smaller states which are more straightforward and work my way up to the larger and more complex states where controversial decisions will have to be made.

National results are compiled at the link below, and if someone wants a link to a specific map not posted in this thread just let me know.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f909bf67-882d-4f8b-8b3c-d6d5b1e92c78

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sol, you, and I are all doing nationwide redistricting projects at once. Praise be to the Lord!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Finished all the 2 district states: pretty straight forwards.

Montana, I did the typical east-west config. The main decision was where to cross the Mountains, and looking at road connections and what I already know, I decided to put most of Flathead County into the Eastern district.

The partisanship is basically the same as the current map, with MT-01 (the western district) being an R-leaning swing seat and MT-02 being super safe R.

For RI, I tried to do a Providence and non-Providence based seat, which forced a split Smithfield but it's really not too bad. Interestingly enough, this actually pushes RI-02 about a point left from the current config.

For ME, I used the current map, and condensed ME-01 into southwest Maine, giving ME-02 Knox and Lincoln Counties. In exchange, ME-02 picks up Lewiston and a few Oxford County towns. This shifts ME-02 a few points left but ME-01 stays as safe D obv.

For NH, I condensed NH-01 to be based around Rockingham County, taking in the entire County. It also takes in Nashua from NH-02 as Manchester and Nashua being in separate districts was always an irk of mine. This district is basically the more "urbanized) parts of SE NH. NH-02 as a consequence, NH-02 takes in all the northern rural parts of NH-01. Both districts have similar partisanship to the state as a whole.

For HI and WV, I really just used the current maps to guide me as I was playing around, I couldn't really come up with a better config myself.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just realized I forgot Idaho!

When it comes to Idaho you basically have 2 not so great options. Either you can do a map like the commission did where you do a clear East-West divide but have Treasure Valley in half (but can keep Boise proper whole), or you can keep the Treasure Valley whole but then have to connect heavily Mormon parts of eastern ID to the panhandle. After playing around a bit, I reluctantly went with the former which obv produced 2 safe R seats.

For Nebraska, a map falls pretty well. You have NE-01 which is based around Lincoln and rural areas of Southesatern Nebraska, NE-02 which takes in all of Douglas and a bit of Sarpy to create an Omaha based seat, and then NE-03 which is all the farmland and rurals in the western part of the state. Basically, a cleaned-up version of the current map.

In New Mexico, I made a clear Albuquerque based seat that's shaped like a bit of a starfish (NM-01).  it's obv safe D. NM-02 takes in a lot of areas in the southern and eastern parts of the state influenced by the oil industry. Safe if not likely R seat. It is also majority Hispanic. NM-03 is a bit weird but essentially combines Santa Fe, a bunch of Native tribes, and some of the areas connected to ALBQ that couldn't be in the ALBQ district. It was Biden + 20 so should be pretty safe D, and has a significant 23% Native population.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's the national picture so far!

Just did all the states with 4 seats.

My KS basically mirrors the 2010 map with adjustments for population shifts; the KC seat is Biden + 13 and basically safe D.

Mississippi is basically the current map with some cleaning up around the margins; it's basically the only config that works if you want to keep the Delta whole.

Arkansas is a bit weird, but the districts generally mirror the current map except cleaned up, Pulaski County (Little Rock) is kept whole making AR-02 closer, and AR-01 and AR-04 are rotated a bit and AR-04 actually has a black population of 30%, but due to extreme racial polarization is still super safe R. The main thing I was debating here was whether to put Garland County (Hot Springs) in AR-02, which I ultimately decided to do to keep the urban nature of the district, plus it was otherwise sort of homeless. The alternative would be to have AR-01 take in hot springs, have AR-02 take in Lonoke County, and AR-04 takes in Jonesboro. All 4 seats are R leaning with only AR-02 being remotely competitive.

As I've discussed elsewhere NV actually falls pretty naturally if you follow lines in Clark County. NV-01 is a likely D seat that's basically Las Vegas proper, NV-03 is another likely D seat that takes in diverse and growing suburbs to the South like Enterprise and Paradise. NV-04 is a lean D seat that depends heavily on turnout dynamics taking in heavily Hispanic North Las Vegas as well as the rest of Clark County and a few rurals. NV-02 is a likely R whole County in northern Nevada basically identical to the current NV-02.

In Iowa, I tried to keep counties whole as splitting counties is cursed. IA-01 and IA-02 are slightly rotated; IA-01 takes in Cedar Rapids and Davenports plus as much of the farm belt as possible; ton of Obama-Trump rural counties here. IA-02 is a bit redder taking in Iowa City, Waterloo, and much of central IA. IA-03 is a D leaning seat based around Des Moines also taking in suburban Dallas County and Ames home to Iowa State University. IA-04 is obv safe R and becomes all of western Iowa.

Utah is pretty dramatically reconfigured. UT-01 is a whole County district that takes in the northernmost parts of the Valley including Logan and Ogden. UT-02 is based around SLC, and has notable and growing Hispanic minority of 24%. The district is basically safe D at this point, but would've been competitive earlier. UT-04 takes in the southern and heavily LDS parts of the Valley including Provo. UT-03 takes in the rest of the state, extremely Mormon, and extremely R. The map overall should reliably produce a 3R-1D delegation unless something weird happens.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sol, you, and I are all doing nationwide redistricting projects at once. Praise be to the Lord!

It’ll be exciting to compare them at the end (assuming we ever reach it). I think we all going off slightly different criteria/rules when drawing our maps

[ProgressiveModerate]

Update, I'll explain the maps tmrw.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why do you like the Louisiana Purchase so much?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sol, you, and I are all doing nationwide redistricting projects at once. Praise be to the Lord!

It’ll be exciting to compare them at the end (assuming we ever reach it). I think we all going off slightly different criteria/rules when drawing our maps

Agreed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Added a few more. I've decided I'm not going to go through and explain every decision for every state except for upon request, because tbh I feel like a lot of the maps can be explained just by looking at them.

Pls feel free to give feedback!

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f909bf67-882d-4f8b-8b3c-d6d5b1e92c78

Here's the interactive map, shaded by 2020 Pres.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Your SC map is very interesting. I've never seen anything quite like it. Your AZ one looks quite similar to mine.

Also, your UT map neatly shows how imbalanced population distribution is in that state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Your SC map is very interesting. I've never seen anything quite like it. Your AZ one looks quite similar to mine.

Also, your UT map neatly shows how imbalanced population distribution is in that state.

With South Carolina, I started with Charleston given how relatively isolated it is and also the fact the metro area is almost perfect for 1 CD.

And then for Columbia, Richland, Lexington, and Fairfield Counties are the perfect size for sustaining a CD. This CD has a notable black minority of 34% and would have the chance to send a black Dem to congress.

SC-03 is also a whole County district, and obv the reddest on the map.

SC-06 becomes just exclusively the rural black belt pretty much; a swing seat that would either send a black D or white R to congress. Given what happened in 2022 in the black belt, prolly votes R in 2022.

SC-04 stays based around Greenville, and then SC-05 and SC-07 worked out from there and are relatively similar to their current configs.

What sucks about SC is that the black population is so spread out it's hard to make a seat that reliably sends a black Dem to congress without violating COIs in a way I wasn't willing to do. If Columbia demographic and geopolitical shifts continue though, SC-02 should pretty reliably send a black D to congress.

For AZ, yeah I def got inspiration from your map, particularly when it comes to Tucson and the boarder seat. I tried to condense AZ-08 further into the metro so now it has a 33% Hispanic VAP giving Hispanics a 3rd seat they can influence, especially since my map makes the border seat competitive in terms of topline partisanship. As a consequence, AZ-01 is ofc pushed outwards, but that makes more sense given the more exurban nature of the district due to Scottsdale.

And for UT, yeah, it's really amazing just how urban the state is; it's just a good chunk of the urbanized parts of the Valley vote extremely R so it's really easy to create a map (like the current gerrymander) which would make one think it's almost an entirely rural state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

For the final few larger states, I'm just going to send zoom-ins of the state because otherwise no one can really see the districts.

Here's WA:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At this point you've got more-or-less about half of the CDs done, right?

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this point you've got more-or-less about half of the CDs done, right?

Nope only 178/435.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At this point you've got more-or-less about half of the CDs done, right?

Nope only 178/435.

I guess that when it comes down to it, half of all US CDs are in the top 10 states or something.

[ProgressiveModerate]

At this point you've got more-or-less about half of the CDs done, right?

Nope only 178/435.

I guess that when it comes down to it, half of all US CDs are in the top 10 states or something.

Yep us population is extremely concentrated, and I’m saving those states for last cause they’ll take exponentially more time

[ProgressiveModerate]

Virginia! I feel pretty good about this map except for VA-10 (the swingy exurban NOVA seat based around Loudon County).

[Sol]

Good stuff!

Here's the national picture so far!

Mississippi is basically the current map with some cleaning up around the margins; it's basically the only config that works if you want to keep the Delta whole.

In the spirit of pettiness, you can actually put all or almost all of greater Jackson in MS while pretty much keep the Delta whole.

[Builder Refused]

What are the splits for shades? Like 0 10 20 30 D or R. Also what’s the OKC vote

[ProgressiveModerate]

What are the splits for shades? Like 0 10 20 30 D or R. Also what’s the OKC vote

The color is on a function, and the OKC seat voted narrowly for the Donald.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What are the splits for shades? Like 0 10 20 30 D or R. Also what’s the OKC vote

The color is on a function, and the OKC seat voted narrowly for the Donald.

Probably, very similar partisanship to the OK-05 I drew.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good stuff!

Here's the national picture so far!

Mississippi is basically the current map with some cleaning up around the margins; it's basically the only config that works if you want to keep the Delta whole.

In the spirit of pettiness, you can actually put all or almost all of greater Jackson in MS while pretty much keep the Delta whole.

Not really (I assume you mean taking in most of Rankin County?)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Added NJ and MI!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Added NC and GA!