Which CA Biden seat Republicans survive past 2024? (user search)
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  Which CA Biden seat Republicans survive past 2024? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which CA BIden seat Republicans survive past 2024?
#1
John Duarte
 
#2
David Valadao
 
#3
Mike Garcia
 
#4
Young Kim
 
#5
Michelle Steel
 
#6
None of them
 
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Total Voters: 41

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Author Topic: Which CA Biden seat Republicans survive past 2024?  (Read 912 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: December 04, 2022, 01:42:21 PM »

All but Duarte unless something crazy happens like a Biden +10 nationwide PV. 

My hot take is that with current trends, the mountain resort liberals will most likely defeat Kiley before any of these SoCal/Central Valley seats flip back.
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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,650
« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2022, 03:20:54 PM »

Kim and maybe Valadao and Duarte depending on their challengers. I think Valadao’s performance won’t look as impressive when the results by CD of the gubernatorial and Senate race come out. I think Dahle and Meuser clearly did better than him.

I don’t see how the others survive Biden winning the state by another 30 point margin again compared to the pretty small margins Newsom and Padilla won by.

I would not assume this.  The evidence suggests California has peaked for Dems and would be notably closer than 2020 in a similar nationwide result.
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