Which CA Biden seat Republicans survive past 2024?
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  Which CA Biden seat Republicans survive past 2024?
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Poll
Question: Which CA BIden seat Republicans survive past 2024?
#1
John Duarte
 
#2
David Valadao
 
#3
Mike Garcia
 
#4
Young Kim
 
#5
Michelle Steel
 
#6
None of them
 
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Total Voters: 41

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Author Topic: Which CA Biden seat Republicans survive past 2024?  (Read 859 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: December 02, 2022, 10:07:53 PM »

Which Biden district Republicans will survive re-election in 2024?
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2022, 11:15:03 PM »

Pretty sure Valadao and Kim win. Steel could be vulnerable against the right opponent, though she’ll start out favored. If Democrats are seriously stupid enough to nominate Smith again, then Garcia wins, otherwise I’d say his race is a Toss-Up. Duarte could win, but my guess is that he loses.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2022, 11:39:50 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2022, 03:22:47 AM by Interlocutor »

Based on gut instincts;

- Duarte is loses in 2024
- Valadao barely hangs on
- Garcia depends entirely on if Smith is the nominee again. I ended up voting for him in the poll
- There's a higher chance of Calvert losing/leaving than either Kim or Steel losing

So at this point in time, I think all but Duarte survive 2024.
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Spectator
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2022, 11:44:11 PM »

Kim and maybe Valadao and Duarte depending on their challengers. I think Valadao’s performance won’t look as impressive when the results by CD of the gubernatorial and Senate race come out. I think Dahle and Meuser clearly did better than him.

I don’t see how the others survive Biden winning the state by another 30 point margin again compared to the pretty small margins Newsom and Padilla won by.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2022, 01:51:23 AM »

Kim, Steel, and Garcia hang on.

Unsure about Valadao.

Duarte loses.
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2022, 02:25:45 AM »

Kim is safe, Valadao is heavily favored, then Garcia > Steel >= Duarte
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2022, 09:22:19 AM »

Based on gut instincts;

- Duarte is loses in 2024
- Valadao barely hangs on
- Garcia depends entirely on if Smith is the nominee again. I ended up voting for him in the poll
- There's a higher chance of Calvert losing/leaving than either Kim or Steel losing

So at this point in time, I think all but Duarte survive 2024.
Regardless of it be trump or desantis and gop win or Biden second term Garcia ((if he not on ticket)) chances could depends on this
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Gracile
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2022, 01:05:20 PM »

Valadao seems decently likely because of his longstanding crossover appeal in the region combined with potentially favorable trends in the future, as well as Kim because the partisanship of her district is much more favorable to the GOP.

Duarte, Garcia, and Steel could be vulnerable in a better year for Democrats, but it's hard to say.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2022, 01:42:21 PM »

All but Duarte unless something crazy happens like a Biden +10 nationwide PV. 

My hot take is that with current trends, the mountain resort liberals will most likely defeat Kiley before any of these SoCal/Central Valley seats flip back.
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Dani Rose
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« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2022, 02:13:37 PM »

So, I think all of them could actually lose in a blue wave - which I still massively, massively feel like 2024 will be - and, crucially, if Newsom and the CADEMs stop sucking, but on a baseline:

Kim is dug in at this point and Steel is propped up heavily by district demographics.

Valadao depends entirely on the leading variable. If the state party gets its act together, he loses. If not, he holds on. Garcia is similar, but I actually feel like he's established more of a lasting brand for himself than Valadao and will end up being a tougher prospect for us.

Duarte and - not on the poll but I'll add him - Calvert are gone.
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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2022, 03:09:16 PM »

In a blue wave, all would be disfavored except Kim, who would also be vulnerable.

In a light-blue-to-neutral year, all would start off favored, but on average maybe 1.5 would lose. In a neutral-to-pink year, all would start off favored, but on average maybe 0.5 would lose. In a red year, all would win and quite possibly comfortably.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2022, 03:20:54 PM »

Kim and maybe Valadao and Duarte depending on their challengers. I think Valadao’s performance won’t look as impressive when the results by CD of the gubernatorial and Senate race come out. I think Dahle and Meuser clearly did better than him.

I don’t see how the others survive Biden winning the state by another 30 point margin again compared to the pretty small margins Newsom and Padilla won by.

I would not assume this.  The evidence suggests California has peaked for Dems and would be notably closer than 2020 in a similar nationwide result.
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Spectator
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« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2022, 03:49:02 PM »

Kim and maybe Valadao and Duarte depending on their challengers. I think Valadao’s performance won’t look as impressive when the results by CD of the gubernatorial and Senate race come out. I think Dahle and Meuser clearly did better than him.

I don’t see how the others survive Biden winning the state by another 30 point margin again compared to the pretty small margins Newsom and Padilla won by.

I would not assume this.  The evidence suggests California has peaked for Dems and would be notably closer than 2020 in a similar nationwide result.

What evidence is that? If you’re basing it on midterm performance, I strongly disagree since we routinely see every cycle that Dems do considerably better in presidential years than in midterms.
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« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2022, 05:06:42 PM »
« Edited: December 04, 2022, 05:10:37 PM by Interlocutor »

Kim and maybe Valadao and Duarte depending on their challengers. I think Valadao’s performance won’t look as impressive when the results by CD of the gubernatorial and Senate race come out. I think Dahle and Meuser clearly did better than him.

I don’t see how the others survive Biden winning the state by another 30 point margin again compared to the pretty small margins Newsom and Padilla won by.

I would not assume this.  The evidence suggests California has peaked for Dems and would be notably closer than 2020 in a similar nationwide result.

What evidence is that? If you’re basing it on midterm performance, I strongly disagree since we routinely see every cycle that Dems do considerably better in presidential years than in midterms.

Not only that, if midterm performance is the main evidence, 2014 was arguably a worse year for California Dems.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #14 on: December 04, 2022, 05:07:37 PM »

Kim and maybe Valadao and Duarte depending on their challengers. I think Valadao’s performance won’t look as impressive when the results by CD of the gubernatorial and Senate race come out. I think Dahle and Meuser clearly did better than him.

I don’t see how the others survive Biden winning the state by another 30 point margin again compared to the pretty small margins Newsom and Padilla won by.

I would not assume this.  The evidence suggests California has peaked for Dems and would be notably closer than 2020 in a similar nationwide result.

What evidence is that? If you’re basing it on midterm performance, I strongly disagree since we routinely see every cycle that Dems do considerably better in presidential years than in midterms.

Except for 2020, when they did worse than 2018.
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S019
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« Reply #15 on: December 04, 2022, 06:10:07 PM »

Valadao, Duarte, Kim, and Steel
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leecannon
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« Reply #16 on: December 04, 2022, 08:38:44 PM »

I expect them all to survive.

At this point I think Garcia is the new Katko
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Spectator
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« Reply #17 on: December 04, 2022, 09:04:21 PM »

Kim and maybe Valadao and Duarte depending on their challengers. I think Valadao’s performance won’t look as impressive when the results by CD of the gubernatorial and Senate race come out. I think Dahle and Meuser clearly did better than him.

I don’t see how the others survive Biden winning the state by another 30 point margin again compared to the pretty small margins Newsom and Padilla won by.

I would not assume this.  The evidence suggests California has peaked for Dems and would be notably closer than 2020 in a similar nationwide result.

What evidence is that? If you’re basing it on midterm performance, I strongly disagree since we routinely see every cycle that Dems do considerably better in presidential years than in midterms.

Except for 2020, when they did worse than 2018.

Biden still did way better in 2020 than Newsom did in 2018.
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #18 on: December 05, 2022, 02:27:15 PM »

All.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #19 on: December 05, 2022, 05:20:50 PM »

Definitely not all.

First of all, Latino turnout in California was terrible this year. Even adjusting for the supposed trend, with increased turnout alone (like a presidential election year) both Duarte and Garcia are in deep trouble. I would expect both to lose in a normal year, and for Valadao too struggle quite a bit too.

I also expect that even though it's not a Biden seat, Ken Calvert is the most likely CA Republican after these three to go down in 2024.

Steel is the real wild card. She clearly knows her district and is a good fit for it. But at some point, partisanship will sink her. If it's a good year for Democrats and Biden wins here by 10, I just don't see how she could possibly survive. That said, she's definitey a slight favorite.

Young Kim is more moderate, more intelligent, and a really good fit for her inland OC, rich people district. She's the only one I would be confident in predicting surviving past 2024, though I also voted for Steel and Valadao. Duarte IMO is close to DOA, unless he tacks hard to the center. Garcia is also not the amazing incumbent people think he is either and way too far right for this district, which being in the majority will magnify.
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