Which CA Biden seat Republicans survive past 2024? (user search)
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  Which CA Biden seat Republicans survive past 2024? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which CA BIden seat Republicans survive past 2024?
#1
John Duarte
 
#2
David Valadao
 
#3
Mike Garcia
 
#4
Young Kim
 
#5
Michelle Steel
 
#6
None of them
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 41

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Author Topic: Which CA Biden seat Republicans survive past 2024?  (Read 897 times)
Spectator
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,383
United States


« on: December 02, 2022, 11:44:11 PM »

Kim and maybe Valadao and Duarte depending on their challengers. I think Valadao’s performance won’t look as impressive when the results by CD of the gubernatorial and Senate race come out. I think Dahle and Meuser clearly did better than him.

I don’t see how the others survive Biden winning the state by another 30 point margin again compared to the pretty small margins Newsom and Padilla won by.
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Spectator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,383
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2022, 03:49:02 PM »

Kim and maybe Valadao and Duarte depending on their challengers. I think Valadao’s performance won’t look as impressive when the results by CD of the gubernatorial and Senate race come out. I think Dahle and Meuser clearly did better than him.

I don’t see how the others survive Biden winning the state by another 30 point margin again compared to the pretty small margins Newsom and Padilla won by.

I would not assume this.  The evidence suggests California has peaked for Dems and would be notably closer than 2020 in a similar nationwide result.

What evidence is that? If you’re basing it on midterm performance, I strongly disagree since we routinely see every cycle that Dems do considerably better in presidential years than in midterms.
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Spectator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,383
United States


« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2022, 09:04:21 PM »

Kim and maybe Valadao and Duarte depending on their challengers. I think Valadao’s performance won’t look as impressive when the results by CD of the gubernatorial and Senate race come out. I think Dahle and Meuser clearly did better than him.

I don’t see how the others survive Biden winning the state by another 30 point margin again compared to the pretty small margins Newsom and Padilla won by.

I would not assume this.  The evidence suggests California has peaked for Dems and would be notably closer than 2020 in a similar nationwide result.

What evidence is that? If you’re basing it on midterm performance, I strongly disagree since we routinely see every cycle that Dems do considerably better in presidential years than in midterms.

Except for 2020, when they did worse than 2018.

Biden still did way better in 2020 than Newsom did in 2018.
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