Which CA Biden seat Republicans survive past 2024?

[coloradocowboi]

Definitely not all.

First of all, Latino turnout in California was terrible this year. Even adjusting for the supposed trend, with increased turnout alone (like a presidential election year) both Duarte and Garcia are in deep trouble. I would expect both to lose in a normal year, and for Valadao too struggle quite a bit too.

I also expect that even though it's not a Biden seat, Ken Calvert is the most likely CA Republican after these three to go down in 2024.

Steel is the real wild card. She clearly knows her district and is a good fit for it. But at some point, partisanship will sink her. If it's a good year for Democrats and Biden wins here by 10, I just don't see how she could possibly survive. That said, she's definitey a slight favorite.

Young Kim is more moderate, more intelligent, and a really good fit for her inland OC, rich people district. She's the only one I would be confident in predicting surviving past 2024, though I also voted for Steel and Valadao. Duarte IMO is close to DOA, unless he tacks hard to the center. Garcia is also not the amazing incumbent people think he is either and way too far right for this district, which being in the majority will magnify.