How do Iowa Democrats rebuild/retool?

[Suburbia]

Barack Obama must be ashamed. Iowa put him on the map in 2008, 14 years later, Iowa is a red state like it's neighbor Missouri.

How did Iowa get Missourized and how do Iowa Democrats retool? They are no longer No. 1 in primary ranking anymore and they are a lot of white progressives still there....

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think IA can't really be fully compared to Missouri. The urban-rural divide is still a lot less extreme. However, it has largely been the rural areas in the eastern part of the state that used to vote outright D and now vote outright R which have really pushed the state right.

The big fear for IA Dems is that there's still a lot further than can full in many rural parts of the state; it's still pretty unusual for low college ed white rural areas far away from any major cities outside the northeast to only be voting 60-40 R.

Dems can pretty effectively block the GOP from getting a supermajority though on urban/suburban seats alone. One of the surprises of 2022 was how Dems held on to/flipped several narrow Biden seats around Des Moines and hence narrowly fended off a GOP supermajority.

If they actually want to win statewide though, they have to find a way to reconnect with these rural farming areas which seems tricky given the way the national party is changing. They should really stay away from the national party and focus specifically on issues that pertain to the agricultural industry, meet people where they're at and stuff. Part of the reason IA was much bluer in the early 2000s was because Rs were absolutely toxic for these areas and the Dem message resonated.

Iowa is still overall a rural state; racking up large margins out of Des Moines is helpful but it's not enough.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Move to South Dakota.  Like, every Democrat in Iowa move to South Dakota to try to turn it blue.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Iowa isn’t becoming a new Missouri , it’s becoming what Iowa was before the farm crises . Before the farm crises Iowa was a ruby red state that voted more republican from 1856-1984 than Kansas did as it only voted Dem 5 times until 1984 . From 1988-2012 it voted democratic 6 times so it’s not really a traditional democratic state at all .

It’s literally just a Dukakis/Bill Clinton/Obama dem state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa isn’t becoming a new Missouri , it’s becoming what Iowa was before the farm crises . Before the farm crises Iowa was a ruby red state that voted more republican from 1856-1984 than Kansas did as it only voted Dem 5 times until 1984 . From 1988-2012 it voted democratic 6 times so it’s not really a traditional democratic state at all .

It’s literally just a Dukakis/Bill Clinton/Obama dem state

Grassley was on the ballot in 22 but in 24 there isn't any statewide race it remains to be seen about 26 Ernst won by 7 pts in 2020 and doesn't have the Approvals of Grassley if Fink wants the nomination she will win it in 26 , in 24 so far Tester, Manchin, Scott, Matthew Sancrainte is should scare Rs, Biden is already leading Trump in FL there is no way Miami Dade in a Prez Yr goes R,, are vulnerable, in 26 it's Ernst v Fink, Golden v Collins and Jackson v Thomas Tillis

That's why they moved the primary there isn't any statewide Sen race in 24

I am definitely donating to Brown and Matthew Sancrainte

[smoltchanov]

Well, if state parties could stay away from national one now - Democrats would be really competitive not only in Iowa, but even in Arkansas and Oklahoma. And Republicans - in Massachusetts and Vermont. The problem is - unlike the past state parties are no more "independent" from national one, and as a result - run candidates, that simply doesn't fit their districts and states: most of Democratic candidates in non-liberal Arkansas and Oklahoma are liberals, and most of Republican candidates in Massachusetts and Vermont are some sort of conservatives. Predictable result - one party dominance...

[SInNYC]

Iowa isn’t becoming a new Missouri , it’s becoming what Iowa was before the farm crises . Before the farm crises Iowa was a ruby red state that voted more republican from 1856-1984 than Kansas did as it only voted Dem 5 times until 1984 . From 1988-2012 it voted democratic 6 times so it’s not really a traditional democratic state at all .

It’s literally just a Dukakis/Bill Clinton/Obama dem state

Looking at just whether they voted R or D isn't really fair, especially considering how much of a R landslide most elections were between the VRA and the 90s. 1976 was the only D win, and IA was really close, with Carter doing better in IA than in MI and neighboring IL. IA was also Mondale's best midwestern state outside of MN.

[Roll Roons]

Iowa isn’t becoming a new Missouri , it’s becoming what Iowa was before the farm crises . Before the farm crises Iowa was a ruby red state that voted more republican from 1856-1984 than Kansas did as it only voted Dem 5 times until 1984 . From 1988-2012 it voted democratic 6 times so it’s not really a traditional democratic state at all .

It’s literally just a Dukakis/Bill Clinton/Obama dem state

Looking at just whether they voted R or D isn't really fair, especially considering how much of a R landslide most elections were between the VRA and the 90s. 1976 was the only D win, and IA was really close, with Carter doing better in IA than in MI and neighboring IL. IA was also Mondale's best midwestern state outside of MN.

Iowa voted against FDR in his last two elections. OSR is right that it's actually an ancestrally Republican state that happened to get friendlier to Democrats in the 80s because of the farm crisis.

[TML]

As far back as 2018, it was mentioned in a political blog about Iowa politics that mid-size cities appear to be a bigger problem for Democrats than rural areas. Specifically, the report focused on the following counties (and the corresponding mid-size cities they contain):

Clinton (Clinton)
Cerro Gordo (Mason City)
Muscatine (Muscatine)
Marshall (Marshalltown)
Des Moines (Burlington)
Jasper (Newton)
Webster (Fort Dodge)
Wapello (Ottumwa)
Lee (Keokuk)
Marion (Pella/Knoxville)
Boone (Boone)
Mahaska (Oskaloosa)
Carroll (Carroll)
Buena Vista (Storm Lake)
Jefferson (Fairfield)
Dickinson (Spirit Lake)
Clay (Spencer)

Before 2016, Democrats used to routinely win these counties collectively, but Republicans have won them collectively in pretty much every statewide race since 2016, and they've even picked off state legislative seats based in these areas. Democrats need to stem their losses in these places if they hope to win statewide again and/or make up ground in the state legislature (it is not possible for Democrats to come anywhere near a majority in either state legislative chamber if they don't regain previously lost seats in these areas).

[Ljube]

Move to South Dakota.  Like, every Democrat in Iowa move to South Dakota to try to turn it blue.

That would be a terrible thing for South Dakota if it ever happened.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Move to South Dakota.  Like, every Democrat in Iowa move to South Dakota to try to turn it blue.

That would be a terrible thing for South Dakota if it ever happened.

Eh?

[TML]

Move to South Dakota.  Like, every Democrat in Iowa move to South Dakota to try to turn it blue.

That would be a terrible thing for South Dakota if it ever happened.

Eh?

This individual has a pro-R bias and thus views any pro-D trend negatively.