From 2016, married men/unmarried women trended left. Unmarried men/married women trended right. Why?

[Ferguson97]

Unmarried women, 2016: D+29
Unmarried women, 2022: D+37

Unmarried men, 2016: D+1
Unmarried men, 2022: R+7

Married men, 2016: R+21
Married men, 2022: R+20

Married women, 2016: D+2
Married women, 2022: R+14

Married men basically remained the same, but still shifted 1 point to the left. Unmarried women shifting to the left sort of makes intuitive sense with Dobbs as a #1 issue.

But why are unmarried men AND married women both shifting right? Unmarried women have shifted to the right MORE than unmarried men. What's going on here?

[SlavicOrthodoxWolf]

Because exit polls are stupid and shouldn't be taken seriously

[Roll Roons]

I wonder if the backlash to #metoo, especially Kavanaugh, has caused young men to trend somewhat right and led to the rise of the "Barstool bro" type.

My theory is that some of these young men have turned to cultural conservatism because don't want their career prospects or social lives ruined over one awkward joke or some dumb thing they did in high school.

Speaking as an Indian American, the Aziz Ansari story hit pretty close to home for me because one of the few Indian American celebrities was basically lumped in with an abusive monster like Harvey Weinstein over what amounted to an awkward date.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Fallacy of comparing presidential years to midterm years aside, I'm more curious about the sharp R swing among married women.

[Ferguson97]

I wonder if the backlash to #metoo, especially Kavanaugh, has caused young men to trend somewhat right and led to the rise of the "Barstool bro" type.

I'm not sure what you mean by "especially Kavanaugh", the consensus outside of conservative circles was that he was guilty.

My theory is that some of these young men have turned to cultural conservatism because don't want their career prospects or social lives ruined over one awkward joke or some dumb thing they did in high school.

Speaking as an Indian American, the Aziz Ansari story hit pretty close to home for me because one of the few Indian American celebrities was basically lumped in with an abusive monster like Harvey Weinstein over what amounted to an awkward date.

TBF, everyone pretty quickly realized that Aziz didn't actually do anything wrong and everyone just kinda forgot about it.

[Skill and Chance]

Recent history in exit polls for married women:

2012: R+7 (NPV D+3.9)
2014: R+10 (NPV R+5.7)
2016: D+2 (NPV D+2.1)
2018: D+10  (NPV D+8.6)
2020: R+4 (NPV D+4.5)
2022: R+14 (NPV R+2.9)

This really looks like a one-time swing to Hillary Clinton as the 1st female nominee and then a quick reversion to their historical R-leaning voting patterns.  Note that they stuck around for Dems one more time in 2018, so MeToo backlash doesn't fit as an explanation for why they are back to voting R now.  If it does come down to a specific issue, a COVID restrictions/"woke" school curriculum backlash seems more plausible with this timing.

[ProgressiveModerate]

With women, I think it's just that liberal women seem to be less likely to get married, at least formally married than more conservative women, and the age divide has only grown more extreme and hence the partisan divide.

Ik I'm going to get some flack for this but unmarried man could have shifted right due to the GOP's reliance on anger and stuff, I think a lot of men are unhappy about the fact they aren't married, and part of it has to do with now we live in a time where marriage is less necessary and you have many younger women choosing to not peruse permanent relationships like that.

[Skill and Chance]

With women, I think it's just that liberal women seem to be less likely to get married, at least formally married than more conservative women, and the age divide has only grown more extreme and hence the partisan divide.

Every year, we do inch closer to a world where getting married = culturally conservative by default. However, we aren't particularly close to that point.  A supermajority still get married at some point in their lives.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Recent history in exit polls for married women:

2012: R+7 (NPV D+3.9)
2014: R+10 (NPV R+5.7)
2016: D+2 (NPV D+2.1)
2018: D+10  (NPV D+8.6)
2020: R+4 (NPV D+4.5)
2022: R+14 (NPV R+2.9)

This really looks like a one-time swing to Hillary Clinton as the 1st female nominee and then a quick reversion to their historical R-leaning voting patterns.  Note that they stuck around for Dems one more time in 2018, so MeToo backlash doesn't fit as an explanation for why they are back to voting R now.  If it does come down to a specific issue, a COVID restrictions/"woke" school curriculum backlash seems more plausible with this timing.

Yeah QAnon and lockdowns (combined with 45's stimulus) explain a good chunk of the 2018-2020 swing. Wouldn't have expected school curriculum backlash to be a significant factor unless I'm underestimating how much more married >40 women care about this stuff (even if they don't have K-12 age children!) than their unmarried >40 counterparts.

[JGibson]

Recent history in exit polls for married women:

2012: R+7 (NPV D+3.9)
2014: R+10 (NPV R+5.7)
2016: D+2 (NPV D+2.1)
2018: D+10  (NPV D+8.6)
2020: R+4 (NPV D+4.5)
2022: R+14 (NPV R+2.9)

This really looks like a one-time swing to Hillary Clinton as the 1st female nominee and then a quick reversion to their historical R-leaning voting patterns.  Note that they stuck around for Dems one more time in 2018, so MeToo backlash doesn't fit as an explanation for why they are back to voting R now.  If it does come down to a specific issue, a COVID restrictions/"woke" school curriculum backlash seems more plausible with this timing.

Yeah QAnon and lockdowns (combined with 45's stimulus) explain a good chunk of the 2018-2020 swing. Wouldn't have expected school curriculum backlash to be a significant factor unless I'm underestimating how much more married >40 women care about this stuff (even if they don't have K-12 age children!) than their unmarried >40 counterparts.

The 2020-2022 R+10 shift among married women could be largely fueled by backlash over school curriculum issues ("CRT", LGBTQ+ inclusion), and possible COVID vaccine mandates for schools.

[Ferguson97]

Recent history in exit polls for married women:

2012: R+7 (NPV D+3.9)
2014: R+10 (NPV R+5.7)
2016: D+2 (NPV D+2.1)
2018: D+10  (NPV D+8.6)
2020: R+4 (NPV D+4.5)
2022: R+14 (NPV R+2.9)

This really looks like a one-time swing to Hillary Clinton as the 1st female nominee and then a quick reversion to their historical R-leaning voting patterns.  Note that they stuck around for Dems one more time in 2018, so MeToo backlash doesn't fit as an explanation for why they are back to voting R now.  If it does come down to a specific issue, a COVID restrictions/"woke" school curriculum backlash seems more plausible with this timing.

Yeah QAnon and lockdowns (combined with 45's stimulus) explain a good chunk of the 2018-2020 swing. Wouldn't have expected school curriculum backlash to be a significant factor unless I'm underestimating how much more married >40 women care about this stuff (even if they don't have K-12 age children!) than their unmarried >40 counterparts.

The 2020-2020 R+10 shift among married women could be largely fueled by backlash over school curriculum issues ("CRT", LGBTQ+ inclusion), and possible COVID vaccine mandates for schools.

Why didn't married men shift as well then? Is the GOP just really close to their ceiling with married men at the moment?

[Skill and Chance]

Recent history in exit polls for married women:

2012: R+7 (NPV D+3.9)
2014: R+10 (NPV R+5.7)
2016: D+2 (NPV D+2.1)
2018: D+10  (NPV D+8.6)
2020: R+4 (NPV D+4.5)
2022: R+14 (NPV R+2.9)

This really looks like a one-time swing to Hillary Clinton as the 1st female nominee and then a quick reversion to their historical R-leaning voting patterns.  Note that they stuck around for Dems one more time in 2018, so MeToo backlash doesn't fit as an explanation for why they are back to voting R now.  If it does come down to a specific issue, a COVID restrictions/"woke" school curriculum backlash seems more plausible with this timing.

Yeah QAnon and lockdowns (combined with 45's stimulus) explain a good chunk of the 2018-2020 swing. Wouldn't have expected school curriculum backlash to be a significant factor unless I'm underestimating how much more married >40 women care about this stuff (even if they don't have K-12 age children!) than their unmarried >40 counterparts.

The 2020-2020 R+10 shift among married women could be largely fueled by backlash over school curriculum issues ("CRT", LGBTQ+ inclusion), and possible COVID vaccine mandates for schools.

Why didn't married men shift as well then? Is the GOP just really close to their ceiling with married men at the moment?

Probably.  In 2020, white men moved meaningfully left from 2016 and elected Biden while nearly every other demographic moved right.