What state votes further right, Florida or Ohio?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Ohio.

Florida is tough for a Dem to win in a Presidential year, but the reason why people are so pessimistic about it after seeing 2022 is because they still don't fully grasp that the Dem coalition is uniquely badly suited to midterms in Florida.

Dems in Florida are reliant on support from low turnout minorities. Even among demographics like Cubans, insofar as some of them are more willing to vote Dem, it is younger Cubans, whereas older Cubans are more Republican. So in midterms where you have lower turnout among youngs (but olds still vote heavily), Rs will naturally overperform. Especially currently, because of the self-selection (especially during COVID) of conservative olds who have been migrating to Florida more than progressive olds.

Don't get me wrong, Florida will remain a very difficult state for a Dem to win in 2024, and it is definitely better to invest more in states lie GA, NC, and perhaps TX more so than FL, but for these reasons Florida probably won't be quite as bad as 2022 makes it look.