What state votes further right, Florida or Ohio?
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  What state votes further right, Florida or Ohio?
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Question: What state votes further right?
#1
Florida
 
#2
Ohio
 
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Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: What state votes further right, Florida or Ohio?  (Read 564 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: December 02, 2022, 02:20:14 PM »

What state votes further right, Florida or Ohio?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2022, 02:53:19 PM »

Depends on whether orange man or DeSandwich is the Republican nominee.
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2022, 05:02:23 PM »

Ohio fairly easily, it’s possible that it could be even if DeSantis becomes the nominee
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new_patomic
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2022, 05:07:02 PM »

The story with Florida seems very much about the total collapse of Dem turnout.

The state is definitely trending right but it would seem shocking if the the same turnout differential took place during a Presidential year.
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S019
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2022, 09:27:19 PM »

Still Ohio
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2022, 09:35:43 PM »

Still leaning Florida. As a poster above pointed out, part of the reason Dems suffered so badly in FL this cycle was that turnout was extremely lopsided towards the R party and in a full Pres year reguardless of how much Dems invest, things should equalize a bit.

With that being said, I think the 2022 results have shown that in a Pres year, an R winning Florida by a lopsided 10% on the federal level isn't totally impossible.

Ohio on the other hand tends to be a bit more "stable" in it's voting patterns at the federal level. This is because of the pretty extreme urban-rural divide, and even within urban areas a pretty notable black-white divide. You also have very clear examples of internal countershifts like Columbus and Cinci which have in 2020 at least offset Trump's further gains in rural and Northeastern OH. Ohio also just has slightly more "normal" politics and geography whereas Florida has a lot of wild politics and demographics that can be hard to predict.

In other words, I think FL still narrowly votes to the left of OH, but FL has a much wider range of possible outcomes than OH.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: December 03, 2022, 12:28:57 AM »

Both are completetive because Biden is leading Trump in FL and Brown is running in OH we can get a wave insurance map in a Prez yr like 2012 you know
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S019
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« Reply #7 on: December 03, 2022, 02:13:21 PM »

Still leaning Florida. As a poster above pointed out, part of the reason Dems suffered so badly in FL this cycle was that turnout was extremely lopsided towards the R party and in a full Pres year reguardless of how much Dems invest, things should equalize a bit.

With that being said, I think the 2022 results have shown that in a Pres year, an R winning Florida by a lopsided 10% on the federal level isn't totally impossible.

Ohio on the other hand tends to be a bit more "stable" in it's voting patterns at the federal level. This is because of the pretty extreme urban-rural divide, and even within urban areas a pretty notable black-white divide. You also have very clear examples of internal countershifts like Columbus and Cinci which have in 2020 at least offset Trump's further gains in rural and Northeastern OH. Ohio also just has slightly more "normal" politics and geography whereas Florida has a lot of wild politics and demographics that can be hard to predict.

In other words, I think FL still narrowly votes to the left of OH, but FL has a much wider range of possible outcomes than OH.



The question asked which votes right, not left.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: December 03, 2022, 02:24:20 PM »

I’ll go against the grain and say Florida. Sure, part of the reason Democrats collapsed was turnout differential, but the registration changes, as well as the types of voters who are entering the state, paint a very bleak picture for Democrats, perhaps even more so than Ohio. While Democrats do have more room to fall in Ohio, particularly in the Northern part of the state, they do have the Columbus area to mitigate that somewhat. If Miami-Dade really does start voting consistently Republican, then double digit margins becoming the norm for Republicans statewide isn’t out of the question at all.
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Computer89
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« Reply #9 on: December 03, 2022, 03:13:04 PM »

If DeSantis is the Nominee: Florida

If Trump is the Nominee: Ohio
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: December 03, 2022, 03:45:04 PM »

Still leaning Florida. As a poster above pointed out, part of the reason Dems suffered so badly in FL this cycle was that turnout was extremely lopsided towards the R party and in a full Pres year reguardless of how much Dems invest, things should equalize a bit.

With that being said, I think the 2022 results have shown that in a Pres year, an R winning Florida by a lopsided 10% on the federal level isn't totally impossible.

Ohio on the other hand tends to be a bit more "stable" in it's voting patterns at the federal level. This is because of the pretty extreme urban-rural divide, and even within urban areas a pretty notable black-white divide. You also have very clear examples of internal countershifts like Columbus and Cinci which have in 2020 at least offset Trump's further gains in rural and Northeastern OH. Ohio also just has slightly more "normal" politics and geography whereas Florida has a lot of wild politics and demographics that can be hard to predict.

In other words, I think FL still narrowly votes to the left of OH, but FL has a much wider range of possible outcomes than OH.



The question asked which votes right, not left.

Oops lol
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« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2022, 04:17:37 PM »

Ohio.

Florida is tough for a Dem to win in a Presidential year, but the reason why people are so pessimistic about it after seeing 2022 is because they still don't fully grasp that the Dem coalition is uniquely badly suited to midterms in Florida.

Dems in Florida are reliant on support from low turnout minorities. Even among demographics like Cubans, insofar as some of them are more willing to vote Dem, it is younger Cubans, whereas older Cubans are more Republican. So in midterms where you have lower turnout among youngs (but olds still vote heavily), Rs will naturally overperform. Especially currently, because of the self-selection (especially during COVID) of conservative olds who have been migrating to Florida more than progressive olds.

Don't get me wrong, Florida will remain a very difficult state for a Dem to win in 2024, and it is definitely better to invest more in states lie GA, NC, and perhaps TX more so than FL, but for these reasons Florida probably won't be quite as bad as 2022 makes it look.
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SN2903
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« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2022, 04:51:46 PM »

If DeSantis is the Nominee: Florida

If Trump is the Nominee: Ohio
What about Youngkin? I say OH
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Computer89
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« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2022, 04:53:47 PM »

If DeSantis is the Nominee: Florida

If Trump is the Nominee: Ohio
What about Youngkin? I say OH

I will say Ohio for now but it could be FL
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