2026 GA Senate - Who would win in a Kemp v Ossoff race?

[Woody]

Title

[2016]

Brian Kemp.

It's yet to be seen if GA Democrats have the same kind of Turnout among Black Voters without an African-American on the Ballot.

2018: They had Abrams

2020: They had Harris & Warnock and in the Runoff they had Warnock again helping Ossoff. Let's face it: Without Warnock Ossoff would not be a Senator.

2022: They had Warnock

[brucejoel99]

It'll be an interesting race but Ossoff holds his own IMO given what the metro counties will likely look like by then.

[Skill and Chance]

It'll be an interesting race but Ossoff holds his own IMO given what the metro counties will likely look like by then.

Yes, I think Georgia should be quite clearly Dem by then.  It would be a lot like a federal race in VA in the 2010's. 

[wbrocks67]

Ossoff. Georgia will continue to trend left, but again, like I said in another thread - Kemp was able to hide from a lot of his conservative views this year and get away with it. That won't happen in a Senate race.

[prag_prog]

Kemp vs Ossoff will be a fascinating race. One thing for sure...Ossoff is going to be a much stronger candidate than Abrams against Kemp. Abrams is quite popular with a section of Dem's base but Ossoff has much better favourables than Abrams with general electorate. Ossoff's favorables are currently pretty good in GA. It's always tough beating a swing state incumbent with good favourables..Ossoff is also not a polarizing figure like Abrams. Lack of experience was something that counted against Ossoff last time in 2020 election but he wouldn't need to worry about that in 2026.

If I have to guess right now, I'd go with tossup if Kemp runs. I hope Ossoff can prevail though..I initially wasn't sure what to expect from him when he got elected but he has grown on me. He seems to be very passionate about the job. I feel like if he can survive 2026, he has a decent chance of keeping that seat for a long time.

[wbrocks67]

Kemp vs Ossoff will be a fascinating race. One thing for sure...Ossoff is going to be a much stronger candidate than Abrams against Kemp. Abrams is quite popular with a section of Dem's base but Ossoff has much better favourables than Abrams with general electorate. Ossoff's favorables are currently pretty good in GA. It's always tough beating a swing state incumbent with good favourables. Lack of experience was something that was a negative for Ossoff last time in 2020 election but he wouldn't need to worry about that in 2026.

If I have to guess right now, I'd go with tossup if Kemp runs. I hope Ossoff can prevail though..I initially wasn't sure what to expect from him when he got elected but he has grown on me. He seems to be very passionate about the job. I feel like if he can survive 2026, he has a decent chance of keeping that seat for a long time.

Ossoff has been incredibly impressive IMO. He, much like Warnock, imo, is a master of pushing for a lot of liberal/progressive policies but not being seen as some "radical socialist." Same thing with Fetterman tbh too. Which isn't always an easy thing to do - they are progressive but they are still seen from voters as 'moderate' and 'common sense.' Ossoff, like you said, is also really passionate about what he does and that's pretty clear. He doesn't really play games, he seems like he's been actively trying to work for GA. I think he was extremely underrated before and still is.

[Del Tachi]

I don't think Kemp would ever go for it, but isn't Ossoff generally considered weaker/less popular than Warnock? 

[Rookie Yinzer]

Ossoff.

Stakes are much different at the federal level, and Ossoff is not Abrams.

[Person Man]

It’s likely D in a Hump/Dennis midterm and probably TiltR in a Biden one.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kemp would definitely win if it was held this year. But by 2026 I could very easily see Ossoff as the favorite.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't think Kemp would ever go for it, but isn't Ossoff generally considered weaker/less popular than Warnock? 

They were saying that because he won by a smaller margin in 2021 but they forget that he ran against a non-controversial incumbent while Warnock ran against someone who had never faced voters before and proved to be a dismal candidate.

[Ferguson97]

Lean D if the President is a Republican. Tossup if the President is a Democrat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kemp isn't running for Sen and GA is a Secular state mow, OSSOFF is young that's his Assets

[prag_prog]

Kemp vs Ossoff will be a fascinating race. One thing for sure...Ossoff is going to be a much stronger candidate than Abrams against Kemp. Abrams is quite popular with a section of Dem's base but Ossoff has much better favourables than Abrams with general electorate. Ossoff's favorables are currently pretty good in GA. It's always tough beating a swing state incumbent with good favourables. Lack of experience was something that was a negative for Ossoff last time in 2020 election but he wouldn't need to worry about that in 2026.

If I have to guess right now, I'd go with tossup if Kemp runs. I hope Ossoff can prevail though..I initially wasn't sure what to expect from him when he got elected but he has grown on me. He seems to be very passionate about the job. I feel like if he can survive 2026, he has a decent chance of keeping that seat for a long time.

Ossoff has been incredibly impressive IMO. He, much like Warnock, imo, is a master of pushing for a lot of liberal/progressive policies but not being seen as some "radical socialist." Same thing with Fetterman tbh too. Which isn't always an easy thing to do - they are progressive but they are still seen from voters as 'moderate' and 'common sense.' Ossoff, like you said, is also really passionate about what he does and that's pretty clear. He doesn't really play games, he seems like he's been actively trying to work for GA. I think he was extremely underrated before and still is.

I get what you are saying but I'd say Warnock, Fetterman are definitely seen as lot more liberal/socialist than Ossoff...even GOP mostly ran ads painting Warnock as some radical socialist (especially in 2020) but didn't do that with Ossoff. Ossoff despite being lot more liberal policy wise, doesn't seem to be considered as some progressive perception wise which is luckily a good thing for him.

There was a GA poll in October which had Kemp's approvals at 51/43...same poll had Ossoff's approval at 49/38..so that's positive news.

[Mr. Smith]

Depends on who the President is, what Congress looks like, and how polarized and "pro-incumbent" the electorate is.

But I'd give Ossoff the advantage just because of what usually happens to Governors when they challenge.

[Heir of Camelot]

Governors have to be arm twisted to be Senators. After you have executive power of your own fiefdom (state) being 1 vote out of 100 is not very interesting to these types of guys.

Bullock had to be arm twisted hard to run. Schweitzer refused (Montana is my frame of reference).

I bet Kemp doesn't even run for Senate.

[brucejoel99]

Governors have to be arm twisted to be Senators. After you have executive power of your own fiefdom (state) being 1 vote out of 100 is not very interesting to these types of guys.

Tbf, the creation of Kemp's federal PAC just now would seem to imply a deal struck between him & Mitch for favoritist funding from Mitch for the Senate run in exchange for Kemp taking one for the team & putting his network to Herschel's use right now.

[GMantis]

Depends on who the President is, what Congress looks like, and how polarized and "pro-incumbent" the electorate is.

But I'd give Ossoff the advantage just because of what usually happens to Governors when they challenge.

They win? In the last twenty years, governors have lost, with two exceptions (Jeanne Shaheen in 2002 and Tommy Thompson in 2012), elections for senators only if their party was clearly the minority party in their state. This would obviously not be the case for Kemp in Georgia.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Depends who is president. I don't think that GA will be far enough gone in 2026 that the GOP doesn't win with a six year itch and a popular governor.

I suspect if Ossoff isn't  beaten in 2026 he will have the seat as long as he wants however given trends. 

[lfromnj]

Kemp vs Ossoff will be a fascinating race. One thing for sure...Ossoff is going to be a much stronger candidate than Abrams against Kemp. Abrams is quite popular with a section of Dem's base but Ossoff has much better favourables than Abrams with general electorate. Ossoff's favorables are currently pretty good in GA. It's always tough beating a swing state incumbent with good favourables. Lack of experience was something that was a negative for Ossoff last time in 2020 election but he wouldn't need to worry about that in 2026.

If I have to guess right now, I'd go with tossup if Kemp runs. I hope Ossoff can prevail though..I initially wasn't sure what to expect from him when he got elected but he has grown on me. He seems to be very passionate about the job. I feel like if he can survive 2026, he has a decent chance of keeping that seat for a long time.

Ossoff has been incredibly impressive IMO. He, much like Warnock, imo, is a master of pushing for a lot of liberal/progressive policies but not being seen as some "radical socialist." Same thing with Fetterman tbh too. Which isn't always an easy thing to do - they are progressive but they are still seen from voters as 'moderate' and 'common sense.' Ossoff, like you said, is also really passionate about what he does and that's pretty clear. He doesn't really play games, he seems like he's been actively trying to work for GA. I think he was extremely underrated before and still is.

I get what you are saying but I'd say Warnock, Fetterman are definitely seen as lot more liberal/socialist than Ossoff...even GOP mostly ran ads painting Warnock as some radical socialist (especially in 2020) but didn't do that with Ossoff. Ossoff despite being lot more liberal policy wise, doesn't seem to be considered as some progressive perception wise which is luckily a good thing for him.

There was a GA poll in October which had Kemp's approvals at 51/43...same poll had Ossoff's approval at 49/38..so that's positive news.

Kemp just came out against a well funded campaign while ossoff isn't even campaigning.  Still by 2026 Ossoff should be favored.

[President Johnson]

Four more years of Georgia trends and Ossoff being a charismatic incumbent, I think he's favored even in another Biden midterm. Worst case is a Virginia 2024 redux.