GA SEN Runoff (CNN/SSRS): Warnock 52-48 LV, 51-44 RV

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/02/politics/cnn-poll-georgia-senate-runoff-election/index.html

[South Dakota Democrat]

That's my prediction.

[Person Man]

My long term assumption is that any result more Democratic than this probably means Georgia is already becoming Lean D while an outright Walker win would , to me, imply that Georgia could be stabilizing the way Ohio, Florida, and Missouri did for about 10-20 years before the bottoms fell out there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The sex scandals are too much Walker only push the Runoff due to Kemp coattails

[Xing]

Pretty much exactly what I expect to happen.

[President Johnson]

Please, please let that happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Updated the thread title to include the RV numbers.  Summary:

LV (N=1184)

Warnock 52
Walker 48

RV (N=1886)

Warnock 51
Walker 44

Toplines and crosstabs

[Adam Griffin]

This is the tell-tale sign:



In almost every election where the predominant climate and style of the campaign revolves around one set of voters' motivations being "pro-[particular candidate]" and the other set being "anti-[particular candidate]", said candidate wins. This is Warnock's election, and Walker is a mere afterthought.

Pretty much the only time where this doesn't apply (see: Trump 2020) is where [particular candidate] is both an incumbent and underwater in terms of popularity.

[Adam Griffin]

[Person Man]

👽

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is about what I'm predicting at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

Very strong numbers from the gold standard CNN poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You don't see the usuals commenting blue avatars because Walker is gonna lose without Kemp

[Ferguson97]

\

30% of whites is the rule for Democrats in Georgia, right? (Along with 30% of the electorate being Black?)

[Adam Griffin]

\

30% of whites is the rule for Democrats in Georgia, right? (Along with 30% of the electorate being Black?)

In competitive post-2018 elections, more or less - though it's debatable whether Biden, Ossoff or Warnock (2021 runoff or 2022 GE) has ever truly hit 30% white support (exit polling showed all 4 of these races at 29% white D support, which is still far better than what Democrats in GA in 2018 and prior received!).

[Brittain33]

Ok I’m not worrying about this race any more.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Ok I’m not worrying about this race any more.

Eh, I agree that Warnock is favored given early vote and polling (as well as the previous results) and will be surprised if Walker pulls it out, but GA is not the sort of safely D state where you can afford to risk getting complacent. It could still go R. Stranger things have happened frequently in elections.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ok I’m not worrying about this race any more.

Eh, I agree that Warnock is favored given early vote and polling (as well as the previous results) and will be surprised if Walker pulls it out, but GA is not the sort of safely D state where you can afford to risk getting complacent. It could still go R. Stranger things have happened frequently in elections.

2016 has ensured the Democratic base never gets complacent again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ok I’m not worrying about this race any more.

Eh, I agree that Warnock is favored given early vote and polling (as well as the previous results) and will be surprised if Walker pulls it out, but GA is not the sort of safely D state where you can afford to risk getting complacent. It could still go R. Stranger things have happened frequently in elections.

The media has been negative for Rs since Eday eith the Fuentes in addition that Biden polls aren't in free fall from this pt onward they are on the ipswing

[Progressive Pessimist]

I briefly tuned in to CNN last night to see if they would talk about this poll, and they did, but did it in the exact way I expected: "how is this race still so close for Warnock!?" Ignoring that a four point win in Georgia, an incredibly polarized and inelastic state, would be the most significant win for a Democrat in decades in the state, since f***ing Zell Miller.

Ok I’m not worrying about this race any more.

Eh, I agree that Warnock is favored given early vote and polling (as well as the previous results) and will be surprised if Walker pulls it out, but GA is not the sort of safely D state where you can afford to risk getting complacent. It could still go R. Stranger things have happened frequently in elections.

2016 has ensured the Democratic base never gets complacent again.

The 2021 elections suggest otherwise as well as some elections in individual states from this year, namely New York, of course.

[Tekken_Guy]

I briefly tuned in to CNN last night to see if they would talk about this poll, and they did, but did it in the exact way I expected: "how is this race still so close for Warnock!?" Ignoring that a four point win in Georgia, an incredibly polarized and inelastic state, would be the most significant win for a Democrat in decades in the state, since f***ing Zell Miller.

Ok I’m not worrying about this race any more.

Eh, I agree that Warnock is favored given early vote and polling (as well as the previous results) and will be surprised if Walker pulls it out, but GA is not the sort of safely D state where you can afford to risk getting complacent. It could still go R. Stranger things have happened frequently in elections.

2016 has ensured the Democratic base never gets complacent again.

The 2021 elections suggest otherwise as well as some elections in individual states from this year, namely New York, of course.

I should have said Democrats in swing states like Georgia.

[emailking]

No undecided?

[Brittain33]

Ok I’m not worrying about this race any more.

Eh, I agree that Warnock is favored given early vote and polling (as well as the previous results) and will be surprised if Walker pulls it out, but GA is not the sort of safely D state where you can afford to risk getting complacent. It could still go R. Stranger things have happened frequently in elections.

True. But I suppose I’ll not worry about it and then if Walker wins, I’ll just be surprised like everyone else.

[Ferguson97]

I briefly tuned in to CNN last night to see if they would talk about this poll, and they did, but did it in the exact way I expected: "how is this race still so close for Warnock!?" Ignoring that a four point win in Georgia, an incredibly polarized and inelastic state, would be the most significant win for a Democrat in decades in the state, since f***ing Zell Miller.

Ok I’m not worrying about this race any more.

Eh, I agree that Warnock is favored given early vote and polling (as well as the previous results) and will be surprised if Walker pulls it out, but GA is not the sort of safely D state where you can afford to risk getting complacent. It could still go R. Stranger things have happened frequently in elections.

2016 has ensured the Democratic base never gets complacent again.

The 2021 elections suggest otherwise as well as some elections in individual states from this year, namely New York, of course.

You're talking about NJ and VA governors races right? I think that loss/near loss were due to persuasion of independents rather than democrat complacency.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The negative press with Fuentes has hurt Walkers chances but Rs never promote blk female