forsythvoter
Jr. Member
Posts: 736
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« on: December 02, 2022, 10:41:03 AM » |
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I think the point around inelasticity is half of the answer. Virtually all Rs and Ds I know in GA (to be fair, I know far more Rs than I do Ds) vote the party line at a very high rate and the largest concentration of actual swing voters (which I define as voters that actually regularly vote for both parties) I know are typically younger white college educated voters in the metro ATL area that typically grew up in R households but are more receptive to the D brand than their parents. This isn't a large slice of the overall electorate (even though it feels that way in parts of the metro ATL area).
The other half is black turnout (26% of the electorate vs. 27% when Biden won in 2020 and closer to 30% when Warnock won his first runoff election) in the general was low. If black voters had been closer to 30% of the electorate (which btw is the actual black % of registered voters in GA), we likely would have seen Warnock win by 4-5% (in line with the PA / AZ elections), and some of the statewide Ds may have won or at least forced a runoff (e.g., AG, LG).
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